X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Super interesting: "Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 scored 41% in Claude Code and 61% in OpenAI's Codex. It made 28 tool calls at the median in one and 66 in the other." "No model did best in its maker’s own harness" https://t.co/BONmxl9hiE 引用 @chamath：Model Benchmarks Are Worthless How can a model
Love people opening up the convo to debate/learn in public and Matt is great at it. Sharing for broader awareness. I'll leave the chip-based GW forecasts to others, but on power, I've presented several frameworks for thinking about US IT capacity and the very real limits that https://t.co/fTp3ZzdW5
Very interesting to see which analysts are going to Semicon West and which ones are going to OCP.
Great episode. Meta's $100B+ AI bet is built around PERSONAL superintelligence: an agent that knows your context, remembers it and gets things done for you. Zuckerberg and Wang on Cheeky Pint: >They see room for a consumer-focused frontier lab while much of the industry's 引用 @collision：Cheeky Pi
作者称，DTE与Google的交易符合大型负荷客户承诺期限延长、最低付款要求提高的更广泛变化。文中列举AEP Ohio的安排为爬坡后8年、最长4年爬坡期，且该规模客户需求底线为85%；Dominion的安排为14年，输配电需求底线为85%，发电需求底线为60%。
DTE与Google在Van Buren Township签订1 GW、期限为20年的电力合同。作者称，密歇根州10月1日的相关命令披露了超大规模云服务商的最低电力承诺，并提到为公用事业提供下行保护的基础设施投资安排。
媒体称微软自研 Maia 200 AI 芯片已投产，下一代 Maia 300 计划明年开始制造。Maia 300 的计算芯粒将由台积电采用 2nm（N2）制程制造；原文末句关于微软部署计划未完整。
南亚科技第三季度毛利率达85.7%，DRAM平均售价较第二季度上涨60%，原文称当时DRAM供应短缺、价格上升。第三季度营收较第二季度增长61.9%，至NT$133.65 billion；原文未提供后续“Q3 operating margin”数值。
媒体报道称，纬创董事会批准两项资本支出项目，并计划以不超过NT$1 billion向中强光电购入一座工厂，改作AI服务器生产。原文称两项资本支出分别为NT$6.5 billion和NT$591.6 billion。
Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price 引用 @Wolfex_Yeat：@aleabi
高通CEO: “什么是AI手机？当OPENCLAW面世时，AI手机的未来就清晰了” 💯💯💯 引用 @TJ_Research：以前我们买手机看哪家的照相功能好，未来我们买手机看哪家的端侧AI强
港股调整，之后的机会会在哪里？还是要在具体行业里看。最近港股很萎靡，9月恒生指数累计下跌3.73%，恒生科技指数下跌7.92%。但把行业和公司拆开看表现差异很大：AI-bio就是一个例子，过去两个月恒生生物科技指数涨了30%多，港股这个板块里成份股票过去两个月走势都很强。强势也会伴随剧烈波动，上周7 引用 @BITstocks_CN：🇭🇰 BIT 港股，今日正式上线！ 账户不变 · 进阶体验 港股、美股、加密，同一个账户 🔹 USDT/USDC 直投港股，无需银行卡 🔹 7×24h 稳定币出入金，秒到账 🔹 支持港股打新、融资交易、股票转仓 🎁 限时 0 佣金 · 0 利息
宜信唐宁被带走，这算是国内最早成立的也是最晚出事的P2P平台了，唏嘘… https://t.co/xFdX4woeZT
Good morning. Where do G-7 sovereign yields stand entering the new week? Here’s the 10-year government debt lineup from the WSJ. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/JSRcursLeG
Much bigger and faster than the jump in Japan's exports in the 70s for example ...
Brad Setser称，中国汽车出口今年在高基数上加速增长，是欧盟改变贸易范式的重要原因。引用的路透数据称，9月乘用车销量同比下降28.1%至163万辆，汽车出口同比增长73.2%至92.3万辆；8月对应变化分别为下降23.7%和增长77.5%。
"The word fear doesn't exist in the Saudi dictionary" -- Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the opening of the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh today.
While Chinese exports of machinery, electronics and cars are set to almost double over the last 6 years ... No wonder container traffic is so unbalanced ... 3/3 https://t.co/m9a1k3xnww
European exports of machinery, electronics and cars to China weigh about half as much as they did 6 years ago ... 2/3 https://t.co/y9hI8yZvfE
A different way of looking at trade -- trade in kilos Europe now imports (by weight) more machinery, electronics and cars from China than from the rest of the world combined 1/3 https://t.co/K8umSBNnvj
欧盟从中国进口有机化学品的重量大幅上升，甚至高于俄罗斯入侵后的时期。按重量看，欧洲目前从中国进口的机械、电子产品和汽车，超过从世界其他地区进口的总和。
COLUMN: “Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” The ancient stock market maxim resonates in today’s Middle East. While the US and Iran fight, Big Oil is heading into neighboring Iraq. @Opinion https://t.co/6rcxadx1Em
美国能源部长Chris Wright称，中东（不含伊朗）原油流量已恢复至战前水平的80%–90%，波斯湾成品油流量则仅恢复至战前的25%–30%。他表示，这一原油流量水平尚不足以令美方放心，但使当前价格处于可行、合理的水平。
US economic data have increasingly been disappointing analyst expectations, with the Bloomberg US economic surprise index turning negative in the past few weeks. This is edifying concerns that consumers will soon run out of steam to keep spending as much as prices keep rising. https://t.co/Ehiz8hI2f
NEW ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I talk to @So8res to get the actual details on how AI would actually kill us all https://t.co/GBuT46fmSA
汽油价格与选票，此次中期选举民主党一定会横扫么？高盛这张图将民主党通用选票领先优势与美国平均零售汽油价格叠加对比：民主党的领先优势在伊朗战争爆发导致汽油价格飙升后逐步扩大，两组数据近期朝同一方向运动。而且油价还稍稍有点领先信号的意思。 https://t.co/CnlS7DwoBo 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
Join the Terafab project. The value of the output of this massive structure will rank in the top 20 of country GDPs! 引用 @johnfederspiel：We only hire the best for Terafab. If you’re passionate and want to build the future with us apply here: https://t.co/elDXUFZ4Io Or send resume to jobs@terafab
As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising. The yield curve is still flat, nothing is broken. It’s almost expected. But now, the more people talk about it, the more I might become neutral on bonds. https://t.co/uOrymG3qRA
Lol Trump’s deal wasn’t even an energy ceasefire proper, it was a “refinery-for-refinery” proposal. Only problem: Ukraine only has one damaged refinery that matters little Russia has upward of 36 oil refineries constituting the world’s third largest refinery fleet by capacity https://t.co/GpODaZ
Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude prices. https://t.co/6tDa0MtJXk
台湾与斯洛伐克签署半导体协议，涉及汽车（包括电动汽车）芯片、芯片封装和模块集成。媒体报道称，台湾将提供技术转让、专业支持、研发基础设施和培训，帮助斯洛伐克建设其相关能力。
The latest on Apple’s HomeView, new Apple TV and HomePod mini ahead of Tuesday. https://t.co/4vuopByarz 引用 @markgurman：Power On: Apple spent a decade losing the smart home. Now it has a plan to compete: HomeView, a new Apple TV and HomePod mini, and LG-built accessories. Tuesday’s unveiling is abou
The AI boom is increasingly shifting from parabolic to linear growth. Most investors are totally unprepared for that shift. This week, free on the blog app. https://t.co/EUji9tuxSA https://t.co/qQk0lvaJcR
2000年互联网泡沫破裂，科技股持续了很长时间的低迷。核心不是泡沫，而是2000年前后的互联网都没找到商业模式，从00年一直到06、07年 引用 @market_sleuth：“Too big to fail. Active trading isn’t needed anymore. In fact it’s more of a waste of time.” Those were the words I heard as I was speaking with a finance person yesterday who is way smarter than I & who mana
We are coming off a curious week of economic and financial dualism ... and are now looking at a packed one featuring US inflation data, lots of other global releases, and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. For details, please use one of the following links to read my Weekly Look https://t.co/iuRLp9
I hear all the time that the semis & hyperscalers see plenty of AI-related demand ahead, with no connection to who will pay to meet those lofty expectations. In short, it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030. Good luck. https://t.co/tllPSskzj8
Regarding Hormuz transit figures and directional certainty: We have up to date numbers/estimates for, say, yesterday; we just know that they are likely understated. Dark transits are typically identified with a lag, so the count revisions drift higher over time. As of right
As this chart (h/t @Mike_Weilandt) shows, periods of CNY depreciation/ weakness have consistently been associated with Chinese export outperformance. (the IMF China team ignored this from 22-24, and as a result missed the jump up in China's surplus) Time to get back to BoP https://t.co/ow8GUgbld2
A chart that says more than a thousand words The acceleration in China's export volume growth clearly followed the RMB's depreciation. Sometimes international economics is simple (even if the PBOC and a few others want to fuzz it up) https://t.co/dY7aZH8yUB
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump claims that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy truce" (note this is the 2nd time Trump has made a similar announcement, although this time it comes after a Russia-US diesel on diesel) https://t.co/WMF4kA7e6P