X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
挺有意思，周末很多人聊的都是黑色星期一但早上美股开盘看起来并没那么慌不择路。“黑天鹅或者黑色星期一不会在每个业务爱好者在线上不停谈论它的时候发生。但会发生你睡着觉然后醒来发现白费20%” https://t.co/nRd4b6jjEe https://t.co/UmXU2Q4cu4 引用 @qinbafrank：过去七个交易日内美股的这一波抛售是如何发生的？10月8日前后开始，市场对AI高增长叙事和资本开支可持续性的质疑逐步升温，多个事件叠加形成共振： 1）10月8日左右：OpenAI营收口径差引发第一波抛售 OpenAI向投资者披露，截至9月底年化营收约500亿美元，低于市场此前流传的约7
新云的资本结构和融资方式会影响其风险情景范围，激进融资若依赖再融资并承担全部现货风险，在利率和现货价格走势不利时，再融资可能变得灾难性。一个年化回报率为15%的两年期项目，MOIC约为1.2倍；用两年期分期偿还的15%债务融资，贷方回报倍数也是1.2倍，而用15%的两年期债券融资，回报倍数为1.3倍。分析需明确资产与负债的久期及其中隐含的再投资机会假设。
过去七个交易日，美股因AI变现与资本开支回报受质疑、通胀和油价担忧升温而集中抛售。OpenAI年化营收口径差、Anthropic营收增速放缓及AI基础设施公司融资压力，加上CPI、PPI和布伦特原油走高，加重市场对利率与现金流的担忧。作者认为这属于高速增长叙事下的市场波动，后续关注云巨头财报能否显示收入增长和现金回报。
Nebius的投资者不能既要又要：一边声称享受杠杆化AI基础设施扩张的上行空间，一边因为Nebius有软件栈就无视共同风险。 Nebius有Aether、Soperator和Token Factory。CoreWeave有SUNK、Mission Control和Weights & Biases。AWS有SageMaker和Bedrock。编排、托管推理和开发者工具在这些提供商之间都是有竞争力的产品。它们的质量很重要，但“Nebius在建云、CoreWeave是GPU数据中心OEM”这种区分站不住脚。 你可以更喜欢Nebius的软件、客户结构或融资方式，而且它的合作伙伴出资模式可能降低资本
Wrote this 2.5 years ago. Think it's still mostly right. I hope so. FWIW my personal usage of code peaked around 2017 when I first became deeply informed about Machine Learning and AI. But imagining and adapting to the evolving forest has never required expertise in the trees 引用 @dampedspring：The
Probably better to see some noticeable productivity acceleration on a macro level before pitching 5x the growth rate ever seen in the history of man in just 3yrs. https://t.co/GaR70UEw0q https://t.co/OvGP0bDwEE 引用 @scaling01：Surveyed Anthropic staff's answers imply 17.1% GDP growth in 2030 https://
UKMTO reporting that a tug got double-tapped in Hormuz this morning. A TUG! https://t.co/T2SAT7m81s
Spoke with @WarOnTheRocks about Trump's Russian diesel deal. What it is, what it isn't, and how it fits into our historic crisis in middle distillates supply. https://t.co/dN8XwhCnVe
美国10万亿美元AI基础设施热潮因项目延误、公众反弹和投资者信心不稳显现裂痕。相关建设支撑着美国经济，当前面临重新评估。
.@SecScottBessent: “Core inflation is down. Food is below the Fed’s targets. Prescription drugs have had the biggest decrease in history. Rents are down. This is an energy shock. We will get to the other side of the Iran conflict, and those prices will come down.” https://t.co/Xw8Vf8KW6y
过去七个交易日内美股的这一波抛售是如何发生的？10月8日前后开始，市场对AI高增长叙事和资本开支可持续性的质疑逐步升温，多个事件叠加形成共振： 1）10月8日左右：OpenAI营收口径差引发第一波抛售 引用 @qinbafrank：聊聊CRWV的真实压力以及对能都扛过此次危机？一周前觉得高Beta容易📉的其中一个原因是市场对债务的担心：博通给anthropic和openai担保了近千亿美金，spacex计划借债500亿美金买芯片。当时Crwv的cds暴涨也有了苗头 这周完全成了市场最担心的话题也是大跌的导火索之一。
.@SecScottBessent highlights how real wage growth is up and how Americans are benefiting under the leadership of @POTUS. Watch the full @MeetThePress interview ⬇️ https://t.co/M88yRUoJGN
👀 Data Authority, you say? Cannot wait for the reconciliation fun! **note to Tehran and CENTCOM (wink, wink): simple is best, just give us a static-URL-hosted CSV. Leave the rest to us. 引用 @mb_ghalibaf：The Persian Gulf Data Authority is coming. To governments, funds, and firms in the region: yo
Excellent book 引用 @gbrew24：Good time to crack this one back open. https://t.co/eslPIdGL3L
SPX Price change YTD as of Friday was +11.8%. What percent of the SPX 500 stocks have beaten the SPX? Not cap weighted. Pick the one you think is closest
“and then, kids, the President posted to Truth Social.” https://t.co/wUlwmzbJ26
A guy on the All In podcast is mad about Anthropic 引用 @dnapway：Ben Horowitz says Anthropic is one of the most negligent companies he’s ever seen on security "The irony on these things is wild. Anthropic is one of the most negligent companies that we've ever seen in terms of their own security." "
This chart is from The Economist's article on "the fast-growing stock of AI-related debt." Without a matching rise in loanable funds, persistent rate pressure will likely crowd out rate-sensitive, non-tech sectors. #economy #markets #bonds #yields @TheEconomist https://t.co/zbJNors0XI
This is the only theory that makes sense me why VCs whine about Anthropic non stop. Like they feel embarrassed by them somehow. 引用 @MattZeitlin：They’ll never forgive a bunch of grad student libs for making a company more valuable than almost anything they’ve ever funded and that all their portfolio
企业债市场的稳健表现曾给股票交易员带来安慰，但过去几周这一支撑有所减弱。企业债收益率逐步走高，尤其是信用状况较弱的公司；最低评级债券收益率已升至2022年以来最高水平。
Alright real talk. What’s the deal with https://t.co/Jl9y6lebcB. I’ve probably been seeing their ads (in airports, on taxis) for almost 20 years. Never once heard any discourse or mention of them irl. Who or what is their market?
The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues. 引用 @PaulAnleitner：“We become what we behold.” -William Blake
Starlink 💫 ❤️ 引用 @cb_doge：Starlink became a lifeline when a sailor suffered a stroke with no mobile signal. ♥️ Elliot Russo was aboard his yacht in a remote Indonesian lagoon, when he lost movement on one side and struggled to speak. There was no mobile coverage. Their Starlink connection let th
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier 引用 @XFreeze：The new Tesla Roadster produces more thrust than an F-16 fighter jet at military power Roadster Thrust augment: >80 kN (~18,000 lbf) F-16 with F100-PW-229: ~79.2 kN (~17,800 lbf) without a
𝕏 is seeing all-time high usage 引用 @XFreeze：𝕏 keeps growing 𝕏 recorded 13.43 BILLION website visits in Q3 2026, up from 12.67 billion in Q2, per Similarweb • 13.43B total visits • +6% quarter-over-quarter growth • +760M additional visits in a single quarter 𝕏 continues to grow as it evolves
Already running a model endpoint? What does it take to scale it on Kubernetes? In five minutes, we walk through how NVIDIA Dynamo handles deployment with scalable workers and an OpenAI-compatible endpoint. Watch below: https://t.co/S8uc5ljUIW
True, even SpaceX’s competitor’s FUTURE plans are behind Starship 🤣🤣 引用 @TSLAFanMtl：Ok so yeah... $SPCX has no competition. None. And that's today, before Starship becomes their mainstream rocket. Starship widens the moat *considerably* more. The competition is so far behind, they may as well be
Grok @Bot can call restaurants by phone and book you a table 引用 @BrianRoemmele：“HUNNY MY GROK BOT CALLED OUR FAVORITE ITALIAN RESTAURANT AND MADE US RESERVATIONS” I built a Grok Bot whose only job is to pick up the phone and book you a table at restaurant. Literally make the call in a beautiful Gr
Try Grok @Bot 引用 @Teslaconomics：Bro… it actually worked. I sent one text to my Grok @bot asking it to order the Ollyball Keepy Uppy, the indoor ball from Shark Tank. And now it’s sitting on my doorstep. I didn’t open a single website. I just told it what I wanted, and it literally took care of t
We’re committing a portion of Anthropic’s shares to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, a new wholly owned entity dedicated entirely to the public benefit. It will start off with 5% of our shares. For every 50% increase in the company’s value over a set baseline, we can
Power On: Apple’s new HomeView shows the undeniable potential of a higher-end version with a robotic arm. https://t.co/NVMPS3cJOo
Apple plans a retail store reset for Nov. 6, indicating potential new Mac release timing. More in Power On: https://t.co/imlJIzWeaS
Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster. That may help the iPhone 18 Pro. More in Power On: https://t.co/qX4Wp8R6sc
This is important to crystallize. The underlying demand trend is incredibly strong and required. Whether that means shaky business models, bad deals, expensive financing, or scarcity pricing pencils is another debate altogether. Someone will be there to pick up the pieces. But 引用 @BenBajarin：All
JPM’s chart puts global AI compute demand at ~450 GW in 2030 and ~530 GW in 2031. Translating that into capital and revenue shows aggressive these assumptions seem to be. At an illustrative $50B per fully equipped GW (low-end by the way as costs are moving up), supplying 530 GW 引用 @pequityresearch
The problem with being too bearish here is the bears are way more retarded than the bulls 😔 Bulls are annoyingly hyperbolic/extrapolative but at least they understand the technology
anyone getting this on most of their chats today? OAI issues this month have been frustrating https://t.co/5OV2vEyPHO
its happened to existing and old threads before today that are pretty vital for me + stores of info. they need to restore/fix this! what is going on? @thsottiaux @tarstarr @ajambrosino @embirico @nickaturley 引用 @ShanuMathew93：anyone getting this on most of their chats today? OAI issues this month
发文者表示，若 Josh 引述的数据属实，他大体认同其判断：按 YE26 口径，约 1000 亿美元收入对应约 5 GW 算力，其中仅约 1.25 GW 服务付费客户。按付费服务算，每 GW 收入约 800 亿美元，按整体混合口径约 200 亿美元；引用内容称，Anthropic 85% 的毛利率和超过 40% 的算力利润率意味着 70%—75% 的算力用于研发。
Can someone tell me how a company that is targeting the biggest IPO in history at over $2 Trillion can have it's bonds rated a "junk"? And if bond investors don't even view this as Investment Grade worthy, why should equity investors? https://t.co/LS7XPw12Rr