Good morning.
Good morning. FYI, the link to yesterday's conversation with Wilfred Frost on Sky News. https://t.co/8ZCAgl0Z7I #economy #uk #markets #budget @WilfredFrost @SkyNews https://t.co/R1Y7S3x0nQ
#海外/地缘
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分00 X·宏观AI 评分3535 The first hurricane of the North Atlantic season: Isais, which has formed inside the US Gulf of…
The first hurricane of the North Atlantic season: Isais, which has formed inside the US Gulf of Mexico. On current tracking forecast, the threat is limited to GoM oil production. Crucially, little refining capacity in Alabama (3 refineries in total, with ~140,000 of capacity).
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook :
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @CentralBank_TR: https://t.co/FXJ1moQ8Ug Watch live: https://t.co/myzcmKOHtr Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 It's made to sound like an accident, yet China was waiting to grab the parts as soon as they…
It's made to sound like an accident, yet China was waiting to grab the parts as soon as they reached Hong Kong. Doesn't seem accidental at all. 引用 @business：China managed to get a hold of parts from an F-35 stealth fighter jet after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment t
X·宏观AI 评分2626 .: “The reason we had this crippling inflation under the Democrats was they created a demand shock…
.@SecScottBessent: “The reason we had this crippling inflation under the Democrats was they created a demand shock, but then the regulatory state constricted supply. What President Trump has done is create a private-sector demand shock with tax policy, energy policy, and trade https://t.co/2l6sHeY7i
X·宏观AI 评分2525 This sharp rise in UK gilt yields—with the 10-year up another 7 bps this morning to 5.45%—further…
This sharp rise in UK gilt yields—with the 10-year up another 7 bps this morning to 5.45%—further complicates an already difficult UK budget formulation. Indeed, this may well be the toughest fiscal formulation challenge in years. #economy #markets #uk #budget #yields https://t.co/6VxoJZp7uD
X·宏观AI 评分5656 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡“非法”航线
据半官方的法尔斯通讯社，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡的“非法”航线。作者称，这实际上是革命卫队首次公开承认该水道已不再关闭。
X·宏观AI 评分3131 这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT…
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
X·宏观AI 评分4444 美国8月工业用品进口额环比增加91亿美元，贸易逆差升至1056亿美元
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be…
Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be declaring economic war with the U.S. 引用 @DannyDayan5：Nationalism has made the world more expensive. Europe and their bond markets have been the most negatively impacted. There are actions policymakers ca
X·宏观AI 评分3636 The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports…
The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports of Chinese hybrids has jumped to 0.5m cars in a short period of time (in a total market of just over 10m cars right now) 2/ https://t.co/aulLgmX3A4
X·宏观AI 评分1212 It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to…
It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to discourage retaliation ...) before the prohibitive tariff kicks in will be the commission's tool of choice this fall 4/4 https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp
X·宏观AI 评分3939 Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types)…
Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types) and are four times current EU exports to China (of all car types) 3/ https://t.co/WpZfWDiOOu
X·宏观AI 评分3131 EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are…
EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are clear import surges that are disrupting parts of the European economy 1/ https://t.co/nrRa8m2Mdj
X·宏观AI 评分3535 At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for…
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
X·宏观AI 评分1717 CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker
CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker @byHeatherLong @JohnFMauldin https://t.co/w3A2pJIihg
X·宏观AI 评分2727 While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in…
While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot https://t.co/MGFdA0L3wJ
X·宏观AI 评分2929 And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can…
And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can lead to swings in Korea's surplus of the kind not seen since the change in the oil surplus back in the 70s. DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars 3/3 https://t.co/2XcO1lHHkj
X·宏观AI 评分1515 One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and…
One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and pharmaceuticals, triggered by anticipation of possible tariffs that never materialized 1/2 https://t.co/OCCIYUYLXh 引用 @mattyglesias：Trade deficit is a function of savings dynamics and capital flows, not
X·宏观AI 评分88 "The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American…
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities
X·宏观AI 评分4444 霍尔木兹海峡油轮遭伊朗袭击，波斯湾装载活动仍强劲
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in…
The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in effect fentanyl tariff, which didn't exclude electronics -- if even 30% of current computer imports came from China that would add $100b to the bilateral balance! https://t.co/Qb51fUvgyE 引用 @tradewart
X·宏观AI 评分6262 国际能源署成员国称必要时准备追加释放战略储备石油，并优先保障柴油
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European…
The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European safeguards limiting China's auto exports (presumably b/c of a significant tariff rate quota that allows some ongoing exports) -- and then the discussion will turn to other sectors 2/2
X·宏观AI 评分5858 中国拒绝欧盟限制混合动力汽车出口请求，双方进入紧急谈判
中国拒绝了欧盟要求其自愿限制混合动力汽车对欧出口的请求，双方进入最后阶段谈判以避免贸易冲突。原文附有报道链接：https://t.co/0PxI73B411
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储公布2026年9月15日至16日FOMC会议纪要
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美联储会议纪要称多数与会者认为年末可能适合再次加息
美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为，到年底再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。原文未提供具体加息幅度或确定的行动安排。 https://t.co/QEWpwekHD5
X·宏观AI 评分4141 8月美国消费者信贷增长1.9%，循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
X·宏观AI 评分4040 白宫要求五角大楼准备中期选举前对伊朗目标采取潜在打击的方案
据两名政府官员，白宫已指示五角大楼准备针对伊朗目标的潜在打击方案，这些行动可能在中期选举前实施。官员称，相关规划旨在突出总统降低汽油价格的努力。
X·宏观AI 评分5454 UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边共13起船只遇袭
UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边的船只遇袭总数达到13起。https://t.co/jpmGIUsS1X
X·宏观AI 评分2121 The known unknown is how China will react to the safeguards cases, starting with the hybrid cars…
The known unknown is how China will react to the safeguards cases, starting with the hybrid cars case. and then how Europe responds if Chinas response isn't limited to the expected cognac and ham tariffs ...
X·宏观AI 评分2323 I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the…
I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the proposal for voluntary export restraints -- hence the safeguards cases that are ready as a fallback https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp 2/2 https://t.co/cArLkugzgp
X·宏观AI 评分5050 万斯称伊朗难以阻止石油经霍尔木兹海峡出口
美国副总统万斯在接受路透社采访时称，尽管伊朗不时袭击霍尔木兹海峡的商船，但伊朗基本上无法阻止石油通过该水道出口。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 Further to yesterday's chart of the US yield curve, this one from The Wall Street Journal details…
Further to yesterday's chart of the US yield curve, this one from The Wall Street Journal details the one-month round trip in market expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Is a "hall of mirrors" feedback loop at play here, or is this simply correlation? #economy #markets https://t.co/CyGMp09vjn
X·宏观AI 评分3636 Context to the escalating selloff in French bonds: more policy uncertainty lowers the actual debt…
Context to the escalating selloff in French bonds: more policy uncertainty lowers the actual debt threshold at which defaults become a more likely occurrence, according to this paper. 引用 @GonHuertas：When public debt grows, default risk can jump suddenly. Our new paper with @ojblanchard1 and @pmbru
X·财经博主AI 评分4242 台湾检方起诉10名公司高管，指其涉嫌向中国转售美国军用级芯片
台湾检方起诉10名公司高管，指控他们涉嫌向中国转售美国军用级芯片。涉事芯片来自Analog Devices和Texas Instruments，可用于多种军事装备；指控包括欺诈、伪造和金钱相关罪名。
X·宏观AI 评分4646 贝森特称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，债务占GDP比重可能迅速下降
贝森特称，美国可通过经济增长和支出约束扭转债务轨迹，使债务占GDP比重开始下降，并表示这一变化可能很快发生。他还称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，且这一增速可以持续。
X·宏观AI 评分5555 美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于预估和上月水平
美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于1021亿美元的预估和上月的928亿美元，为“解放日”以来最大。进口增长4.3%，出口增长1.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now.…
no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now. Heavy investment in an economy with a large fiscal deficit means importing capital from the rest of the world. Or put differently the US needs the world's imports to meet its
X·宏观AI 评分22 And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade --
And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade -- 4/ https://t.co/xhaeFM37ig