是这样，对于资产配置的影响会很大
是这样，对于资产配置的影响会很大 美股的分歧也会更大 https://t.co/KEbTkBaSD4 引用 @queue_ct：@TJ_Research 30Y 美债接近 6%，不一定要死守美股了 操作的好的话，债券的回报率会高于股市
#研报/观点
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·grokAI 评分2222 X·grokAI 评分4141 进一步思考：即使实验室利润率被压缩，开源权重也能支撑可观的基础设施回报
开源模型若能提供足够价值，推理服务商即使降低 token 价格，仍可在算力成本之上保留利差。被引评论提出，这种模式结构上可能利好算力需求，但短期可能压低算力价格；评论还提到 AI 实验室每 GW 收入可能最高。
X·grokAI 评分1616 这和往常一样是一串精彩的评论，但我主要的一个问题是：这在结构上会利好算力需求，但短期内利空算力价格，对吧？
这和往常一样是一串精彩的评论，但我主要的一个问题是：这在结构上会利好算力需求，但短期内利空算力价格，对吧？ 我猜如今 AI 实验室是每 GW 创造收入最多的。如果我以 Ant 作为 https://t.co/Ei2VtLpy9U 被引原文（@GavinSBaker）：1) 再试一次。 TLDR：每个人都能赢。开源、前沿实验室、基础设施、应用，最重要的是美国人民。 我理解所有关于 Anthropic 丢失份额、实际利率、利差和二阶导数的紧张情绪。仍然认为最可能的 https://t.co/PeSOvvC706 原文： This is a brilliant thread of comme
X·宏观AI 评分2828 A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested:
A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested: 1) the PBOC manages the RMB heavily 2) That management matters, as the RMB's value does have a clear impact on the pace of Chinese export growth 1/ https://t.co/miYCmheBe5
X·宏观AI 评分1818 The Next Policy Pump
The Next Policy Pump The last several years have seen markets supported by both fiscal and monetary easing, but those benefits are set to reverse which means any new stimulation will require far more unorthodox efforts. https://t.co/o3oq3TJ8lq
X·宏观AI 评分33 Looking forward to joining on this morning around 9:35am ET
Looking forward to joining @BrianSozzi on @YahooFinance this morning around 9:35am ET
X·宏观AI 评分3232 当下的市场估值扩张已让位于EPS兑现
当下的市场估值扩张已让位于EPS兑现 和强劲未来指引，而即将到来的三季度财报是当前市场最大的基本面变量，财报的核心意义在于验证AI盈利能否继续上修、抵消高利率与地缘压力，从而维持市场“韧性”。只要商业化和盈利指引能继续大超预期，AI主线就能持续。 多谢@Mercy_okx 引用 @Mercy_okx：财报明明“超预期”，股价却跌了。到底超的是谁的预期？ 梅西最近找了不少老师请教：接下来的美股财报季，到底该怎么看、怎么找机会？ 平时主要交易 BTC、ETH 的朋友，对资金、情绪和宏观都不陌生。但到了美股财报季，还需要看懂公司交出的这份成绩单。想找密码，先把这几件事弄清楚👇 1️⃣ h
X·宏观AI 评分1111 Great great story! How does DD have only 15K followers. Scroll his feed. Follow him. Definetly one…
Great great story! How does DD have only 15K followers. Scroll his feed. Follow him. Definetly one of the guys I discuss markets with most on this entire hellscape. Deep experience and posts critical info daily. 引用 @DerivativesDon：It’s April 2008 - Last Lehman Macro Conference Things I rememb
X·宏观AI 评分66 Looking forward to joining #MorningTradeLive on around 10:20am ET this morning
Looking forward to joining #MorningTradeLive on @SchwabNetwork around 10:20am ET this morning
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do…
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than on what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin Warsh's push to say less about the outlook in pursuit of a purer market signal. "Having been on the market side of https://t.co/1BqePizq
X·宏观AI 评分1818 And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that…
And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that fix has been the main driver of the CNY in recent years As Mark Sobel notes, this does nothing to help the PBOC's credilibillty https://t.co/fqCD3FBan0
X·宏观AI 评分2323 Spiky is one way to say it.
Spiky is one way to say it. PBoC also trying to deny the obvious -- namely that a weaker inflation adjusted (real) CNY predictably raises its exports and increases its current account surplus https://t.co/2h983VfQsg 引用 @ftchina：China gets spiky on currencies https://t.co/gH8QqBbNbQ
X·宏观AI 评分5252 美联储理事沃勒谈白宫对美联储独立性的挑战
美联储理事克里斯·沃勒在接受彭博采访时谈及白宫对美联储独立性的挑战。他称，政府对美联储独立性的威胁迄今尚未真正奏效，并表示希望这一状况延续。https://t.co/q4cwK3iVSw
X·宏观AI 评分00 Incredible show btw. I was struck by what a thoroughly victorious career they've had. After having…
Incredible show btw. I was struck by what a thoroughly victorious career they've had. After having been cast out of the industry for criticizing the Iraq War/Bush, they regained huge commercial success. And all their critics basically claim to have been on their side all along. 引用 @TheStalwart：Firs
X·宏观AI 评分1919 Interesting and more bearish divergence between flat prompt Brent crude futures price (white) and…
Interesting and more bearish divergence between flat prompt Brent crude futures price (white) and the prompt timespread (blue) today. Something to keep an eye on. https://t.co/yZA9uIYfEU
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Fiscal dominance.
Fiscal dominance. And it begs the question; if hikes don’t have the same effect, is going further really the answer? 引用 @AahanPrometheus：The Fed may have to go further than in prior cycles to slow down activity Hikes don't have the same effect as before https://t.co/k5AKTFbYs1
X·宏观AI 评分1212 #FedFAQ: How is the Federal Reserve System structured?
#FedFAQ: How is the Federal Reserve System structured? Learn more: https://t.co/8x8QevFCSM https://t.co/zDhvOtmtKY
X·宏观AI 评分4444 分析师预计9月CPI能源价格大幅上涨，核心价格涨幅较温和
分析师预计，9月CPI中的能源价格将大幅上涨，推高整体CPI；核心价格则预计涨幅较温和。
X·宏观AI 评分2424 “…The next war with Iran may be shorter than the last one. But it could also be far more intense…
“…The next war with Iran may be shorter than the last one. But it could also be far more intense, destructive, and difficult to contain from the very first day…” 引用 @citrinowicz：The Next War with Iran Could Escalate Almost Immediately, and Far Beyond the Previous Conflict One thing has become inc
X·宏观AI 评分77 I highly recommend watching his videos on money and banking. One of the few people capable of…
I highly recommend watching his videos on money and banking. One of the few people capable of talking about not just financial market plumbing, but also why you should care. https://t.co/XC36gMMiKn
X·宏观AI 评分33 Terrible news. I loved getting to talk to Perry over the years. Someone with incredible range…
Terrible news. I loved getting to talk to Perry over the years. Someone with incredible range, depth and clarity. A major influence on my own thought, for sure. RIP. 引用 @ysi_commons：We are deeply saddened to share the news that Perry Mehrling passed away this morning at the age of 67. Perry was th
X·宏观AI 评分1818 做下半年展望时聊过，我认为EPS会大于PE的噪音（加息，模型公司上市，中期选举），几次直播里我也聊过其实我对于大体量公司连续上市非常敏感（通常都是市场的顶部信号），但我们所在的当下市场是前所未有的，大…
做下半年展望时聊过，我认为EPS会大于PE的噪音（加息，模型公司上市，中期选举），几次直播里我也聊过其实我对于大体量公司连续上市非常敏感（通常都是市场的顶部信号），但我们所在的当下市场是前所未有的，大科技，千亿营收的公司增速仍然可以达到20%+，这是很夸张的。
X·宏观AI 评分44 Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation…
Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation gets, the harder it is to be the one to stand up there and try to explain why things aren't weird. https://t.co/mrVeRDoudU 引用 @atrupar：this is an SNL cold open come to life. she can barely read https:/
X·科技公司AI 评分2929 Congrats! CEOs & execs posting to the public directly on 𝕏 is the best way to get your message out…
Congrats! CEOs & execs posting to the public directly on 𝕏 is the best way to get your message out and drive product sales. Vastly more powerful and effective than a press release. 引用 @sundarpichai：Gemini 4 Argon is here. It’s available globally today for developers and enterprises in the paid
X·科技公司AI 评分3030 True, this is a very big deal
True, this is a very big deal 引用 @SawyerMerritt：Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note: "The part of the SpaceX story that we believe holds the greatest growth potential, and that is being largely ignored/not contemplated by investors, is the Distributed Inference Cloud. Investors are alr
X·科技公司AI 评分2727 Tesla self-driving feels like magic
Tesla self-driving feels like magic 引用 @paulg：The Tesla Model 3 with FSD is mind-blowing. Jessica and I drove to the gym without touching the controls once. It backed out of our driveway, drove there, and backed into a parking space. It's amazing that you can buy so much future for $40k.
X·财经博主AI 评分66 10-13-2026 ($)
10-13-2026 ($) •SpaceX Buys More Spectrum •Musk and Market Structure •Distributed Cellular https://t.co/JfXQgFM2Tu
X·财经博主AI 评分77 I find the $299 price for HomeView solid. Not super aggressive but reasonable all things…
I find the $299 price for HomeView solid. Not super aggressive but reasonable all things considered. The $149 for the HomePod mini 2 is in the same category. But I think $299 for the Apple TV is a huge stretch and a cheaper model - a stick? - is now essential.
X·财经博主AI 评分33 updating a bit on the labs (Anthropic and OpenAI to be specific)
updating a bit on the labs (Anthropic and OpenAI to be specific) full piece: https://t.co/5e75aXG0zy https://t.co/U6DXfJR9sM
X·财经博主AI 评分1313 Taking a step back, I am largely impressed with Apple's smart home launch today. I think $299 will…
Taking a step back, I am largely impressed with Apple's smart home launch today. I think $299 will make the HomeView a huge seller. But the biggest thing is they finally have an end-to-end strategy and a cohesive story for the home. I believe it'll work. 引用 @markgurman：I find the $299 price for Hom
X·财经博主AI 评分3636 Bloomberg puts a theoretical 1GW AI data center in Abilene at ~$30bn. Its ten cost categories…
Bloomberg puts a theoretical 1GW AI data center in Abilene at ~$30bn. Its ten cost categories actually sum $17.1bn for chips and servers, and ~$13bn for everything else. My read is that the hardware assumption is likely closer to Hopper-era economics vs. the latest generation. https://t.co/KjTa26XLj
X·财经博主AI 评分2828 Thought about this more: Open weights could support attractive INFRA returns even as LAB margins…
Thought about this more: Open weights could support attractive INFRA returns even as LAB margins compress. If training is funded elsewhere and open models deliver enough value, inference providers can charge less for tokens while retaining a spread over compute costs. 引用 @ShanuMathew93：This is a b
X·财经博主AI 评分2020 Guess like we found out why Elon has been going on a crusade against memory in his recent posts.
Guess like we found out why Elon has been going on a crusade against memory in his recent posts. $SKHY and Samsung have been price hiking memory too much? https://t.co/r3sTYkd7TX
X·宏观AI 评分2121 BILL ACKMAN买奈飞，卖奈飞，又买入，是一个很好的验证投资理念的过程。从他的分享可以学到很多投资的理念。今晚看的第三个采访😂
BILL ACKMAN买奈飞，卖奈飞，又买入，是一个很好的验证投资理念的过程。从他的分享可以学到很多投资的理念。今晚看的第三个采访😂 https://t.co/C08hcJJmxE
X·财经博主AI 评分4848 AVGO与INTC称AI突破将使芯片投资需求至少再旺盛两年
AVGO和INTC在DBS会议材料中表示，AI领域的突破将使芯片投资需求至少在未来两年保持旺盛；发言还称当前供应不足以满足市场需求。引用内容提到韩国市场的$SKHY和三星下跌，并批评AVGO CEO称AI投资者是赌徒、企业AI尚未带来投资回报。
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI.
Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In https://t.co/c9veQKWVJe
X·宏观AI 评分2727 听了David Rosenberg和Jeffery Gundlach对话，发现做宏观的看多股市的真不多。另外不知道为啥，总觉得美联储在犯错，自己最懂经济。
听了David Rosenberg和Jeffery Gundlach对话，发现做宏观的看多股市的真不多。另外不知道为啥，总觉得美联储在犯错，自己最懂经济。 21年到现在，David R关于股市的看法。 21，谨慎，看空股市 22，看空，预期·30%回调 23，非常看空，预期2900-3200 24，仍然谨慎 25，更加担心股市，AI估值过高
X·宏观AI 评分2222 关于大饼及加密继续保持上周五推文的框架：当然也认为是大周期向上过程中的正常调整但调整时间还不够，10月下半个月或者下旬会迎好的上车点。当时在评论里还跟人讨论过
关于大饼及加密继续保持上周五推文的框架：当然也认为是大周期向上过程中的正常调整但调整时间还不够，10月下半个月或者下旬会迎好的上车点。当时在评论里还跟人讨论过https://t.co/dHCpOQXagv短期内会有反弹但只是小反弹并不是反转。8月这一波稳定币的主力是USDC，其发发行量最近几天还在回落，已经快 https://t.co/HB0aHD0ldW 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是
X·宏观AI 评分3939 现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。…
现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。他给的建议是： 1）对继续追加拥挤敞口保持谨慎 2）科技内部相对偏好七巨头，胜过半导体； https://t.co/THUFEVDzvC 引用 @qinbafrank：花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？
X·宏观AI 评分1818 There may be some complexities around debt specifically taken on to build new manufacturing…
There may be some complexities around debt specifically taken on to build new manufacturing capacity -- but in general a credit expansion that pushes investment up (offsetting the property downturn) should support domestic demand and LOWER the current account surplus 3/3