X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
a 1 pp shift in the composition of output would normally lead to a shift of ~ 1.3m jobs (US economy has 130m jobs at the time). the lower estimate reflects the standard view the traded goods sector is more productive than some service sectors, so less job intense
I did not realize it was controversial in some quarters that changes in the overall trade balance lead to changes in the composition of employment and output (and since sectoral employments tends to be concentrated, pronounced regional shifts) 2/2 https://t.co/vvW1Vq6FLS 引用 @Brad_Setser：A few com
Standard ballpark calculations would support the argument that the surge in Chinese imports (~1 pp pf GDP, which drove a similar increase in non oil imports) would lead to a reduction in manufacturing employment of ~ 1m (1/4 of the 3.5 or so lost in early 00s) ... especially as 引用 @joefrancis505：Th
A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. https://t.co/AcrblgHGGS 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That i
For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60EDhxYGD
and kind of shocked that there isn't general recognition that the ten years after China entered the WTO were not in aggregate great years for the US economy (jobless recovery, housing bubble fueled by imbalances, global financial crisis, great recession) -- certainly they weren't
as noted before, China's manufacturing trade surplus surged during this period (up 1 pp of GDP) ... and I always thought economists accepted that large swings in the trade balance did have an impact on the composition of employment and output ...
Actually I was most interested in the basic observation that a surge in imports had a differentiated regional impact -- which seems to be a very robust conclusion. I had already observed the "China" shock in my own data tracking so that wasn't news to me. 引用 @joefrancis505：My guess is that Dr Set
Wheels were spinning in Berlin, Brussels and Paris over the summer. Beijing didn't do itself any favors by rather flippantly dismissing European concerns even as China's surplus kept on rising 3/3 https://t.co/O340ESNPA9
If implemented through the EU’s law-making apparatus, it [the Franco-German letter] would mark a dramatic shift in how the bloc intends to confront China. The main novelty is a “second-strike capability” 2/3 https://t.co/HjAMNOCB8O
"Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz want to grant Brussels powers to hit back quickly at countries that retaliate when the EU imposes trade measures over allegedly unfair competition ... “It is a political signal to show Beijing that Europe, and Germany, mean business,” says a
EPS压制PE的美股，献给还在刻舟求剑，疑惑利率上涨，英伟达没像22年那种下跌却破新高的各位。
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Holds Press Conference on Trump Accounts Auto Enrollment in Pennsylvania https://t.co/9MnSBVpU7F
Approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation: https://t.co/uYw2dVQb1z
Dr Setser citing Autor et al. on the "China shock": "People in those communities experienced bad job market outcomes, bad economic outcomes for many years. So that’s kind of the background. It changed a little bit how many economists think about the cost of trade." Dr Setser https://t.co/pQVmhnlJL
* a much bigger tariff differential was put forward in the campaign, and the 20% across the board (no exclusions, including for electronics) tariff of Trump 2's first year did have an impact (final assembly for computers left China nearly completely). the fentanyl tariff is no
The Trump 1 tariffs did have some positive effects -- notably insulating the US auto sector from the second China shock. I have not seen any real evidence that the 2.5% tariff differential between China and Europe is doing much at all* 2/2
Lighthizer (Trump 1) introduced a 25% tariff on about 1/2 of US imports in 2017. Those sectors are now 1/4 to 1/3 of current imports from China. Trump 2 now has tariffs on trade with China to 12.5% (after going much higher), and either 12.5% or 10% on most other trade partners 引用 @BaldingsWorld：
Recent conversations on here have reminded me of this excellent paper: https://t.co/EXOt8Z9fAB "part of the increase in credit from 1999 to 2007 in regions with exposure to trade is a consequence of higher credit demand associated with adverse labor market shocks"
Imports from China started to rise in 21/22 (notably of batteries) -- but on the export side, European auto exports looked resilient going into 2023 ... and then the bottom fell out in the Chinese market (UK's importance to Europe is also obvious in this chart) https://t.co/ao7PTcpXNX
The change to Europe's trade in key sectors occurred quite quickly. The overall balance in say autos was pretty stable going into 2024. It has now fallen in 1/2 if batteries (in HS 85) and added to the total https://t.co/7Pi3KgMUSv 引用 @SanderTordoir：A change of tune in the business community.
Across America, families and workers claimed $82 billion in direct tax relief. Ninety-seven percent of filers who would have otherwise owed taxes received a tax cut —and 96% of those who received one earned less than $200,000. More money in workers’ pockets. More opportunity for
Under Biden, everyday prices in Pennsylvania rose 19.2%, costing the average family more than $28,460. Under President Trump, core inflation has fallen from 3.3% to 2.4%. The Working Families Tax Cuts protected 223,000 Pennsylvania jobs and preserved $21 billion in wages and $40
Today, as @SecScottBessent visits Pennsylvania, the contrast is clear: @POTUS' America First agenda is delivering for the Keystone State. https://t.co/4guNB9LMLF
If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and
Trump says “Canada does all their business with us, we do very little business with them.” Sure looks like a lot of red to me, and I think some of those states might be important in an upcoming election 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/1rChTt99ch 引用 @atrupar：Trump: "Canada behaves very badly with the United S
美债收益率越高，未来回报往往越好；自1914年以来，两者关系的R²为0.85。10年前收益率为2%，如今为5.5%；按历史数据，未来十年的年回报约为5%，而非-2%。
2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg
1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 引用 @dampedspring：This chart is
not sure the regulatory burden in china is smaller than in the US/EU right now. different perhaps but not smaller --
Apple and a Hacker's Future I was happy for years in Apple's walled garden; with AI, however, their protections feel like limitations. https://t.co/aoNmGjTjp0
QTS、NextEra、Siemens Energy和Quanta通过Lone Star Infrastructure Coalition联手应对得州对数据中心的反弹。得州暂停相关许可审批期间，联盟将直接向居民和地方官员宣传就业与投资。
Nvidia和博通给出的未来12个月AI收入展望合计约8000亿美元。MS认为，当前电力限制不会危及这一收入，但可能使业绩上行更难；两家公司合计占XPUs市场约90%。
People sharing this as bullish are not reading the following lines.. They're very much in my camp of the mid-teens being a reasonable number this year mid-teens to high-teens next year. Need to be very optimistic to be in that 20-30GW/yr camp. Some semis guys are in 30GW+/yr. BTM
Heat rate vs installed cost of various time to power offerings https://t.co/rYZbpSWfDd
WULF修订电力服务协议（ESA），将Muskie的合同电力翻倍至1 GW，并将第二个500 MW的目标时间提前一年至2029年。ESA约定负荷爬坡、最低付款、担保和成本分摊，条款旨在保护现有电力用户。引用内容称，WULF同意承担Kentucky Power计划建设的Big Sandy 760 MW联合循环发电设施的预计融资成本，并提出提供1亿美元冬季电费抵免。
推文调侃有人只看视频标题，并引用一条对比：May 时 @IanCutress 称“华为 Tau 定律，这什么都不会改变！”，October 时 @Qualcomm 同意获得支撑 @Huawei 新型 LogicFolding 的专利许可。
Kirin 9050 apparently has 1.5 micron pitch HBI die-to-wafer. I spoke to a US packaging company several weeks ago with standard high performance HBI tools, saying they're beyond 0.75 micron pitch. It's just a case of manufacturing at scale. They're also seeing scaling better on
SynMax将美国2026年gross GW部署预期从14–16上调至16–18。Jefferies hosted SynMax，修订反映已开工项目推进加快，尤其是劳动力和资本从准备度较低的项目重新配置的情况。
Shanu Mathew称，UBS预计全球年度机架容量部署将从2026E的26.5 GW升至2030E的104.5 GW，其中50.5 GW将用于Nvidia。作者以ERCOT当前约90GW的峰值负荷作对照，称部署全部容量相当于满足ERCOT目前的峰值负荷；原文列出$NVDA、$GOOGL、$AMD、$MSFT、$META、$ORCL和$AMZN。