X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
The problem with being too bearish here is the bears are way more retarded than the bulls 😔 Bulls are annoyingly hyperbolic/extrapolative but at least they understand the technology
anyone getting this on most of their chats today? OAI issues this month have been frustrating https://t.co/5OV2vEyPHO
its happened to existing and old threads before today that are pretty vital for me + stores of info. they need to restore/fix this! what is going on? @thsottiaux @tarstarr @ajambrosino @embirico @nickaturley 引用 @ShanuMathew93：anyone getting this on most of their chats today? OAI issues this month
发文者表示，若 Josh 引述的数据属实，他大体认同其判断：按 YE26 口径，约 1000 亿美元收入对应约 5 GW 算力，其中仅约 1.25 GW 服务付费客户。按付费服务算，每 GW 收入约 800 亿美元，按整体混合口径约 200 亿美元；引用内容称，Anthropic 85% 的毛利率和超过 40% 的算力利润率意味着 70%—75% 的算力用于研发。
Can someone tell me how a company that is targeting the biggest IPO in history at over $2 Trillion can have it's bonds rated a "junk"? And if bond investors don't even view this as Investment Grade worthy, why should equity investors? https://t.co/LS7XPw12Rr
"In the past year, Devin has gone from writing 13% of Cognition’s production code to more than 90%." This statement is particularly notable given that many consider Cognition as having one of the highest talent density with regards to AI talent and software engineering. 引用 @pmarca：https://t.co/lhP
for all the folks that said ignore ARR, focus on revenues. we do realize that the trailing and go-forward revenues are lower than the run-rate revenue which makes all the comparisons to ROI and otherwise... worse (right now) over time ARR and revenue should converge (unless it's
based. now this is the type of respectful pushback & fact-based discourse we need. no horse in the race but rooted in fundamentals and facts. presenting the sources. Rittenhouse doing a lot to raise the level of discourse on this topic here and elsewhere on this site. 引用 @RHouseResearch：@daniel_k
Thought it'd be helpful to frame this in economic output terms relative to history: Anthropic staff's survey answers imply US real GDP growth of ~18.6% in the 12 months to January 2030 (17.1% in the model's log terms). In the BEA annual record back to 1929, comparable growth https://t.co/j1RJcEaOKC
Fair distinction on the terminology and it's not fair for me to blend them. My broader point is that the investment case still assumes today’s revenue persists and grows so you're still making the same implicit bet. In reality, subscribers can churn, API customers can reduce 引用 @ramez：@ShanuMat
媒体报道称，台积电熊本第二晶圆厂计划于2028年12月投产，制程从原计划的6/12nm改为3nm。新的3nm生产计划提出一期产能为每月6,000片晶圆；原文关于台积电总资本支出的内容不完整。
同一新闻，精选展示《日本经济产业省核准台积电熊本二厂生产计划变更，拟生产3nm芯片》
媒体报道称，三星已接受英伟达请求，由台积电为NVHBM制造base die；NVHBM是基于下一代HBM4E的英伟达定制HBM。三星加入SK海力士和美光，采用台积电3nm base die，以确保一致性。
AUO董事长Paul Peng为Micro LEDs用于共封装光学（CPO）辩护，称该技术适用于服务器机箱内10cm短距离传输，功耗仅为铜线的5%至10%。原文还提到一种新型光缆。
大多数关注 AI 交易的投资者没有意识到，货币和财政政策一直是支撑这笔交易的一大底层驱动力。下一轮政策刺激（policy pump）将难得多。本周在博客 App 上免费阅读： https://t.co/LVoRhG3Yzp 【被引推文】下一轮政策刺激（The Next Policy Pump） 过去几年，市场一直受到财政和货币双重宽松的支撑，但这些利好将会逆转，这意味着任何新的刺激都将需要远为非常规的手段。 https://t.co/o3oq3TJ8lq 原文： Most investors focused on the AI trade don't get that monetary
CRWV的债券价格是不是被操控了？CUSIP21873SAK4就是CRWV最近收益率飙升到15%以上的那支2032年到期的企业债券，13号这支债券交易量1120万美金、14号超过5000万美金，再去看看Crwv股票日交易量至少都是20亿美金以上。感觉影响债券价格比影响股市价格要更容易很多钱。 https://t.co/c5yFGbIc9V https://t.co/J7hKJ8vMqt 【被引推文】聊聊CRWV的真实压力以及对能都扛过此次危机？一周前觉得高Beta容易📉的其中一个原因是市场对债务的担心：博通给anthropic和openai担保了近千亿美金，spacex计划借债500亿美金
"I think this is the end of diesel [cars]," said Erik Severinson, chief commercial officer of Volvo Cars. "If you ask the customer today, why would you buy diesel?" https://t.co/HMyZ0viGDw
Coinbase使用内部专有数据微调开源模型Qwen3.5-9B，用于欺诈预防；其精度、召回率、F1分数和美元加权召回率均显著优于未微调版本及Opus 4.5等模型。微调后模型的P50推理延迟降低55%；Coinbase还开发了便于员工微调模型的内部工具，并预计未来可取代部分后端服务。
Markets Weekly 2026年10月17日 经济扎实 AI出现裂痕 VIX飙升 https://t.co/Z2myeuyAxK 原文： Markets Weekly October 17, 2026 Economy is solid AI cracks VIX spikes https://t.co/Z2myeuyAxK
升级 https://t.co/9dumfS5e10 【被引推文】Grok Bot 刚迎来大幅升级！ 新内容： - 电脑任务快3倍 - 回复时间不到一半 - 语音通话更快且记忆更好 - 可访问你的 X Chat 消息 - 在 X 上标记 @bot 办事 - 更聪明的邮件自动化 - 新连接器：Robinhood、Coinbase、Trello、PostHog、beehiiv 等 - 更干净的UI与更好的通知 光是速度提升就很大 原文： Upgrades https://t.co/9dumfS5e10 引用 @melvindvivas：Grok Bot just got a massiv
我们团队每天大约对 Grok @Bot 做20项改进 https://t.co/gl8rLPLoTU 【被引推文】Grok Bot 最近进步太大了。现在用起来真的很爽！ 又快，又能聪明地理解我的意图。 原文： Our team makes around around 20 improvements per day to Grok @Bot https://t.co/gl8rLPLoTU 引用 @mark_k：Grok Bot has improved so much lately. It's really a joy to use now! So fast and yet smart
这个很好用。截图信用卡是最简单的方式，除非你想填写安全保险库数据。 把信用卡交给餐厅不认识的人好像没问题，却不愿交给 Grok Bot，显得有点可笑。 https://t.co/VJIxxMSXP9 【被引推文】我儿子爱篮球，我想让他能在家练习……但我们住得小，不想球不断弹地吵到邻居。 于是我给 Grok Bot 发了一条短信：“帮我订一个 DribbleUp 静音球，最好价格，寄到我家。” 它比了价、找到最优惠、用我的卡结账下单——含免运费共32.91美元，周四到。 我没打开购物App，也没填任何表单。 我只是想给儿子更安静的练习方式，Bot 就搞定了购物。 有自己的AI机器人
我联系过的零售店仍在核对：下周五预计收到多少机，以及多少已分配给预购。因此对非预购顾客库存做任何裁定都为时过早。 https://t.co/yMxrCJ2R7L 【被引推文】苹果零售门店尚未收到任何此类沟通。或许个别门店经理跟员工说过，但迄今没有统一传达。我不是说以后不会发生，而是目前还没有。 https://t.co/yp7kPJr88j 原文： Retail stores I've talked to are still sorting through the number of units they are expecting to receive by next Friday ve
苹果零售门店尚未收到任何此类沟通。或许个别门店经理跟员工说过，但迄今没有统一传达。我不是说以后不会发生，而是目前还没有。 https://t.co/yp7kPJr88j 【被引推文】苹果零售员工被告知要劝阻顾客现场购买 iPhone Duo https://t.co/utZQUoj4gU https://t.co/CjTuz2y0dn 原文： There's been zero communication to Apple retail stores saying this. Perhaps a manager at select stores told employees this, b
这真的管用！ Grok @Bot 可以自负盈亏。 https://t.co/GEZskbNU9h 【被引推文】我让我的 Grok Bot 去想办法自己挣钱。 我爱这个应用 https://t.co/g9SysaLINp 原文： This really works! Grok @Bot can pay for itself. https://t.co/GEZskbNU9h 引用 @mikepat711：I told my Grok Bot to go figure out how to pay for itself. I love this app https://t.co/g
作者转述Circle首席商务官Kash Razzaghi关于USDC“飞轮”经济模型的文章，称Circle将大部分收入用于分销伙伴分成和基础设施再投资。
推荐理由：文中将储备收益分配与交易、支付、银行及结算网络分层梳理，并列出Circle上半年收入分配数据，可了解其所述网络构成与商业模式。
他们也会持有一些东西，押注市场会因为新闻或情绪之类的把它们炒高或打压 归根结底，数字自己会说话，各个团队都清楚自己承担的风险 但是，是的，认为他们都有同样深入的流程并不符合事实 【被引推文】人们高估了多经理人平台（pod shop）在建仓某个标的之前所做的尽职调查 投资论点往往由短期驱动，取决于公司下个季度的财报能否超预期 这其实并不需要你了解业务的长期基本面。只需对公司是否会超出市场一致预期形成看法 PM们当然有一份偏爱的标的清单，他们倾向于在上面下重注，分析师为这些标的维护非常详细的预测模型 账簿中总有一部分保持相当的方向性，并取决于短期催化剂 原文： They also
Can anyone see a world in which we need five ( or more if you include non US) frontier models? I don't get how all can win. But not my lane. Like why would we need 5 roughly identical generalized models who leapfrog each other in capabilities instead of 2 or 3?
This, from the Financial Times, highlights a core reality of today's geo-economic era: Multi-causal relationships between economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics. #economy #markets #Geopolitics #geoeconomics @FT https://t.co/UK3CPCu5e9
Instead of dooming how about "The Bull Case for equities for Q4" I am short equities and long bonds at the moment so I don't need to wonder about the bear case. I don't need doom porn or crash memes for black monday. I need to consider where I am wrong. I'll break it down
My absolute favourite type of response to this post is along the lines of “you’re using it wrong” or “there are better models” And then “see, I asked and it gave me the *real* answer: <1,000 words of talking around the question and basically landing at “feels like vibes”>” 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Ask
UKMTO 今晨报告又发生三起袭击：两起发生在波斯湾，其中一起据报由一名乘坐小艇、持 RPG 的人员实施；另一起是小艇在也门南部海岸附近骚扰一艘 LNG 油轮。
Nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago, according to a September John Burns Research & Consulting survey. “We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone,” said Scott
聊聊CRWV的真实压力以及对能都扛过此次危机？一周前觉得高Beta容易📉的其中一个原因是市场对债务的担心：博通给anthropic和openai担保了近千亿美金，spacex计划借债500亿美金买芯片。当时Crwv的cds暴涨也有了苗头 这周完全成了市场最担心的话题也是大跌的导火索之一。 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
Catch up on all the new #BLSdata and publications that came out this week! https://t.co/6g1gI9492s https://t.co/UyaVmNGTeD
去看一下这周的ALL-IN，前面20分钟，JASON聊到老马发推“YIKES”，加入CHAMATH关于COREWEAVE的评论时，他发出的奸笑，我认为他肯定做空了。 然后视频开始后他团队做的DECK聊加息对于COREWEAVE成本的影响，“因为一开始的UNSECURED
Tbh idk how this episode came about. David told us he’s an Odd Lots listener. And I’m always down to talk with a fellow musician. https://t.co/kfDSS4U2zQ 引用 @mean_field_zane：@TheStalwart @tracyalloway How’d you pull this off.
Circle首席商务官Kash Razzaghi撰文阐述USDC的“飞轮”经济模型：大部分收益与伙伴共享以推动采用，Circle将剩余部分再投资于基础设施、合规与扩展能力。2026 年上半年，USDC 链上结算额超过 36。
Building safer AI agents takes more than model safeguards. @perplexity_ai open sourced SPACE, the agent sandbox platform behind Computer, giving developers more control over where agents run code and what they can access. Cheers to more teams open-sourcing tools to build safer 引用 @perplexity_ai：W
Yeah 引用 @strodav：@cb_doge BS. His politics are not dark and people who get inflamed are idiots. IMHO, the best way to describe his politics is common sense. Elon single-handedly saved the first amendment in America and he started the process that is identifying at least 1/2 $trillion /year in was
Starlink helps rural communities all around the world 引用 @XFreeze：Starlink is helping connect healthcare facilities in Papua New Guinea 🇵🇬 Four health centres in Morobe Province have received Starlink kits, with three already installed, giving healthcare workers reliable internet for communicati