X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
A couple of months ago @ASMLcompany asked me to host their CEO Christophe Fouquet at the @hellotmrc summit in Amsterdam. We had an on-stage interview discussing everything from EUV to the current state of EU investment into AI. Was really fun! https://t.co/w2kQU4Lb6W https://t.co/GDvFm0Wynf
And everyone keeps saying someone else should hold the backstop risk 引用 @johnarnold：There's hope that the data center boom can help jumpstart nuclear, and it has with restarts and uprates of existing plants. The challenge for new builds, both for current and next-gen tech, is that no one can promis
Shanu Mathew转述，谷歌目标是每六个月将有效 token 服务能力翻倍，而非仅提升原始 GW、FLOPs 等指标。引用内容称，谷歌 AI 基础设施首席技术专家 Amin Vahdat 在 Transition-AI 2026 活动中谈到算力容量每六个月翻倍；原帖还提及 Training Data podcast 和“Training → Inference cascade”。
Also, this is extremely notable because Google has arguably taken one of the most flexible and 'all the above' options approach (they literally acquired a BTM developer that blends renewables + simple cycle gas for firming) and he is straight up telling you GRID PREFERENCE + BTM https://t.co/FVD36y0
And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train. 引用 @LynAldenContact：Most of the hawks don't take into account the fiscal-driven inflation situation or sovereign bond liquidity.
Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance? 引用 @SantiagoAuFund：Higher rates inject more money into the economy, that money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
Further to yesterday's chart of the US yield curve, this one from The Wall Street Journal details the one-month round trip in market expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Is a "hall of mirrors" feedback loop at play here, or is this simply correlation? #economy #markets https://t.co/CyGMp09vjn
为何说市场收益率不再继续向上飙升，估值压力就能缓解？最近几天美股走势也验证了上周这里https://t.co/W1rOfllyrR还有更早这里https://t.co/Qq6a9VrRwv聊到的：“现在的市场并不需要长债收益大跌，只需要稳定小幅回落，业绩没问题的就能起来。能稳住，市场也会缓缓。” 再详细聊聊这个逻辑： https://t.co/3EvTPwgKp1 引用 @qinbafrank：花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况
A big "thank you" to Wilfred Frost for the interesting conversation on the UK economy. #economy #uk #markets @WilfredFrost @SkyNews https://t.co/Owlm6Byc3X
Context to the escalating selloff in French bonds: more policy uncertainty lowers the actual debt threshold at which defaults become a more likely occurrence, according to this paper. 引用 @GonHuertas：When public debt grows, default risk can jump suddenly. Our new paper with @ojblanchard1 and @pmbru
Taiwan Op-Ed: Elon Musk would not be a good partner for TSMC because he is pro-China for business reasons and “extremely unfriendly to Taiwan”, one media says, adding that if TSMC worked on TeraFab, other clients would likely be unhappy because they don’t have joint venture fabs
These have all already showed up in the FCC database as well.
Vitol CEO said the oil market has gone through three distinctive phases, at this overlapping each other: 1) a crude crisis; 2) followed by a refined product crisis; and now 3) a shipping crisis. On the later, my @Opinion column from September 🚢⤵️https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？ 这是基本面真的比想象中强，还是市场已经对风险麻木？ https://t.co/F09KKLDSHg 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade -- 4/ https://t.co/xhaeFM37ig
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds https://t.co/nnaySWiPHC
Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an “act of treason” a day after the central banker, Emmanuel Moulin, warned that the country risked being "strangled by interest rates" if it didn't address its public finances. 引用 @JLMelenchon：Le banqui
作者称，黄仁勋认为MRVL未来达到万亿美元市值的概率较高。引用内容称，MRVL宣布与谷歌于7月29日达成芯片产品开发协议，涵盖AI、存储和网络芯片领域，协议潜在总值为1200亿美元；MRVL还向谷歌发行最多可购买5897万股股票的认股权证，行权价格为每股206.58美元。协议签署后的第一年内，每季度将有136.0867万份认股权证股份归属。
今天Lite创了新高，上周末聊Cohr会有补涨、昨天聊AAOI的ATM增发完成也会有一波行情。光互连板块这一波引领半导体产业链的大逻辑还是八月这篇文推文聊的逻辑，核心是数据中心建设的滞后效应的体现： CapEx公告 → 土建/电力（2025）→ 服务器部署（2026）→ 引用 @qinbafrank：从数据中心建设节奏说说为什么光互联现在进入了业绩爆发期？最早是7月下旬提到光互联业绩兑现空间也很好。8月4号还详细写了一篇看好光互连的逻辑、一周过去多光好像成为了共识。除了之之前聊到的逻辑，再从数据中心建设节奏的角度聊聊： 1、云厂商CapEx节奏与数据中心建设时间线
Welp. I'm short this thing for the next two months or so. https://t.co/ouflaEgKIc
华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域 引用 @bobby79446955：@TJ_Research 怎么看鼠疫
$GOOG 收购 $CEG，不是在卖飞就是在卖飞的路上，等着 $VST 弥补我的损失！ 能源 = 电 = 数据中心 = TOKEN = 智力 = 营收
To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics, conventional macroeconomics is currently winning. The August goods and services deficit was bigger than any deficit apart from those deficits associated with tariff front running 1/ https://t.co/MPrPSGOSh
The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and how quickly. In today's post, the authors trace tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices for U.S. consumer goods. https://t.co/qKgJSPqQKq
债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又要喊降BETA了🤣🤣🤣一年一个轮回
Excellent roundtable conversation alongside @Erica_Downs_ on China’s Hormuz response (Beijing Swing!) and what it has revealed to us about China’s vastly underappreciated [discretionary] oil market influence. Huge thanks to @reziemba for the invitation and to @CNASdc for hosting
I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural rebalancing instrument” would work. I have also been thinking about some kind of special safeguard tied to macroeconomic imbalances, which sounds similar EU wheels are moving
"the European Commission has no direct tool to respond to currency undervaluation and the European Central Bank does not treat trade-related currency misalignment as part of its role. So currency policy must also become part of Europe’s trade strategy" Pascal Lamy, in the
Will be framed for my wall of analytical humility. https://t.co/lf1QhIyovR
IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON? In the newsletter (inspired by our conversation with @CarolinPflueger) I wrote about the huge spread between US and Chinese sovereign borrowing costs, and what it might imply about a shifting balance of geopolitical power. https://t.co/koH2ow8LCn
今天的Tom Lee: “美股和比特币在涨说明市场认为债券利率上涨是短暂的”，什么时候狗尾巴摇狗了。照这个逻辑都形成闭环了：美股上涨说明利率上涨是短暂的，所以接下去如果利率下跌美股还能上涨，那到底谁是因，谁是果？ 不喜欢Tom https://t.co/ZepNcmpOGg
They’re absolutely going to kick me out of this city https://t.co/bOyn9rUWOl
What bothers me about this Krugman piece is that he's still doing the "AI doesn't work" thing from the 2024 era progressive epistemic bubble. Progressives desperately need to update their understanding of what AI does. 引用 @Noahpinion：Paul Krugman says of AI: "This is a technology of, by and for o
I kind of agree with the “Europe is a museum” line. But see @jackclarkSF’s main takeaway from The Curve https://t.co/uARsnADpVU 引用 @talmonsmith：very good newsletter from @TheStalwart as usual. but im still in the Larry Summers Camp over the medium term here despite the near term volatility: "Euro
Grok @Bot can be your personal chief financial officer! 引用 @Teslaconomics：I literally hooked up ALL my finance accounts to Grok Bot. I really mean all of them: 1/ Chase 2/ Charles Schwab 3/ E*TRADE 4/ Fidelity 5/ Robinhood 6/ Wealthfront 7/ Apple Card 8/ 𝕏 Money FYI, this is a total of 30 acco
10-6-2026 ($) •Game Decompilation •Is This Legal? •A Well-Trodden Path https://t.co/w4r6DDcXqm
ngl feels nerfed today. a lot of reminding it to finish all the items in a task, laziness in completing a task, taking shortcuts, etc. started not using fast mode b/c the answers were not satisfactory. first extremely frustrating day with GPT 6.1-Sol. 引用 @thsottiaux：Day 1/ We have optimized the d
When The Ads Come to the Data $META $GOOGL full piece: https://t.co/fLIa8v2Gu7 https://t.co/1ItQagXFeg
Wages are at all-time lows, and profits at historic highs, as a percent of GDP. The backlash against A.I. is a backlash against unchecked inequality. My @nytopinion Chart: https://t.co/idu3fyDrgx
I had no idea how brave everyone would get just a few years later. 引用 @ByrneHobart：Who will be brave enough to post the first GPT-3 edition of their blog/column/newsletter? Coolest version of this would be a piece in a prestige publication about how AI will never replace writers.