CME“美联储观察”：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率升至77.9%
CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储到10月维持利率不变的概率为77.9%，累计加息25个基点的概率为22.1%。到12月，维持利率不变的概率为12.8%，累计加息25个基点和50个基点的概率分别为68.7%和18.5%。
#美联储
格隆汇快讯AI 评分4343 格隆汇快讯AI 评分4141 哈塞特呼吁鲍威尔离开美联储理事会
美国总统特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特呼吁鲍威尔离开美联储理事会。此前一份内部报告指出，美联储总部翻修工程存在管理失误；哈塞特在福克斯新闻节目中表示，鲍威尔现在应该离开并尊重美联储独立性。
彭博AI 评分2929 Trump Aide Hassett Says Powell Should ‘Move On’ From Fed Board
President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser called on former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to leave the central bank’s board after an internal report cited management failures in the renovation of its headquarters.
市场快讯AI 评分4545 哈塞特呼吁鲍威尔离开美联储理事会
白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特呼吁美联储前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔离开美联储理事会。此前，美联储内部监察机构报告指出，总部翻修工程存在管理缺陷，导致成本较最初预算接近翻倍；报告称未发现刑事违法证据，也未认定相关“行政不当行为”。特朗普随后也要求鲍威尔辞去理事会职务。
格隆汇快讯AI 评分4141 哈塞特称不同意沃什加息，但尊重其出于正确理由行事
白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他不同意美联储主席沃什投票加息，但尊重沃什出于正确理由行事。哈塞特还称“是时候让鲍威尔离开了”。
市场快讯AI 评分2626 译 白宫国家经济委员会主任 哈塞特：我们尊重沃什与民众一起投票支持提高利率的决定
译 白宫国家经济委员会主任 哈塞特：我们尊重沃什与民众一起投票支持提高利率的决定。
市场快讯AI 评分3838 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：鲍威尔该离开了
白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：鲍威尔该离开了。
彭博利空AI 评分4141 就业放缓但通胀令美联储保持警惕
Ira Jersey表示，9月就业数据走软，为美联储10月维持利率不变留出空间；但通胀持续，决策者仍可能在12月及明年年初再次加息。他还称，经济增长强劲和财政政策宽松推高全球债券收益率，令各国央行继续面临抑制通胀的压力。
彭博重大AI 评分4040 G7释放1亿桶燃料提供暂时的价格缓解
G7释放1亿桶应急燃料已推动燃料价格下跌，但由于炼油能力受限及中东供应中断导致柴油供应紧张，缓解可能只是暂时的。中国石油需求，以及霍尔木兹海峡和红海周边风险升级，将影响全球能源价格走势。
MarketWatchAI 评分3535 Fed minutes coming this week could give markets important clues about future rate hikes
Minutes from the September meeting may provide extra context, as the real fed-funds rate is now surprisingly low.
财富利空重大AI 评分3636 America’s budget, the bond market and the national debt at 250: Gradually, then suddenly
America’s debt is rising by the trillion. Congress is still refusing to face the bill.
国际投行研报AI 评分5555 高盛：韩国出口与制造业改善，盈利预期上修；外资流出及选举压力拖累KOSPI
报告认为，9月出口加速增长、制造业PMI扩张增强，半导体出口再加速有望支持韩国盈利预期上修。KOSPI远期EPS本周上修，但外资持续流出科技股、美国中期选举临近带来情绪压力，KOSPI本周仍下跌。报告还指出，历史上第四季度表现偏强，KOSPI常在美国中期选举前见底。 时点：2026-09 韩国9月出口环比增长18.1%，制造业PMI扩张为5月以来最强。
IT之家AI 评分3737 美财长贝森特批评 Anthropic、OpenAI 等风险警告：危言耸听，光喊话不拿解决方案
IT之家 10 月 4 日消息，当地时间 10 月 3 日，美国财政部长斯科特 · 贝森特（Scott Bessent）在接受 Axios 采访时批评部分 AI 行业人士针对人工智能“生存性风险”发出的警告。他认为仅仅发出危言耸听的警告、却拿不出具体解决方案，并不能称为领导力。他同时呼吁 AI 实验室负责人承担安全责任，并在确保安全的前提下继续推进 AI 发展。贝森特表示：“我们必须为各种情况做好准备，但另一方面，AI 界某些人只发出危言耸听的声音，却拿不出解决方案，这不是领导力。”此前，Anthropic CEO 达里奥 · 阿莫代伊（Dario Amodei）曾呼吁放缓最先进 AI 模型的
格隆汇快讯AI 评分3939 下周美股进入传统强势季节 美联储纪要登场
下周宏观层面最重要的事件将是周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要。投资者将重点从会议纪要中寻找决策者对于通胀、就业和未来利率路径的判断，特别是下一次加息究竟更可能发生在10月、12月，还是进一步推迟。 下周第三季度财报季将开始升温。百事可乐和达美航空等大型企业将率先公布第三季度业绩，随后大型银行将在再下一周集中登场。根据LSEG IBES数据，市场目前预计标普500成分股第三季度盈利同比增长超过30%。 此外，历史规律看，四季度通常是美股表现最好的时期之一。CFRA数据显示，自1945年以来，标普500第四季度平均上涨4.2%，上涨概率达到85%；中期选举年份第四季度平均涨幅更达到6.4%。
调研纪要AI 评分7070 国海证券：就业降温但通胀未退，美债收益率难明确回落；大周期看好黄金
团队认为就业降温、通胀未退，紧缩节奏不明、期限溢价高企、欧洲财政风险和偏高油价共同作用下，美债收益率难以明确回落。短期实际利率和美元压制黄金，美股则依靠 AI 盈利对冲估值压力；中期选举可能影响增长、财政政策和利率中枢。团队维持黄金大周期看好，并认为制造业扩张支撑铜相对抗跌。 时点：2026-10 关注核心 CPI 环比走势及美联储 10 月政策决定。
调研纪要AI 评分1515 华创海外：美国就业走弱压低10月加息预期，HDD扩产与AI及核电交易引发供需和政策关注
9月非农仅增2.9万人、失业率升至4.2%，市场下调10月再次加息预期。东芝拟将FY2027数据中心HDD产能较FY2025近乎翻倍，市场担忧新增供给削弱紧缺和定价权。Amazon拟将Nvidia芯片转入SPV并租回，Anthropic称政府限制可能影响商业客户；甲骨文拟认购部分核电以应对数据中心新增负荷。 点名公司：东芝（数据中心HDD）、Seagate（HDD）、Western Digital（HDD）、Amazon（数据中心）、Nvidia（芯片）、Anthropic（AI）、甲骨文（数据中心）。 时点：2026-10 G7协调释放1亿桶柴油及其他储备，计划持续约4个月。
调研纪要AI 评分6767 知识星球：9月非农走弱降低连续加息压力，基准情形下12月再次加息
9月美国新增非农低于预期，前两个月就业数据累计下修，失业率超预期上行且薪资增速放缓。资料认为，非农走弱及联储官员表态降低了10月连续加息的可能性，基准情形下联储于12月再次加息。 时点：2026-12 联储基准情形下再次加息。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and…
Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information." https://t.co/gWNMqc6992
格隆汇快讯AI 评分4343 美联储和欧洲央行下周公布会议纪要，料凸显通胀担忧
美联储和欧洲央行将于下周公布上月会议纪要，内容预计凸显决策者对通胀压力上升的担忧。美联储9月会议纪要可能显示，许多政策制定者当时预计年底前至少再加息一次；但新增就业低于预期、工资增长乏力及通胀修正数据，令经济学家认为10月加息门槛很高，12月加息选项仍可能存在。
彭博AI 评分3636 Fed, ECB Minutes to Show Inflation Fears as Hike Bets Fade
Any urgency among Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policymakers to follow up September interest-rate hikes at this month’s meetings has been dialed back in the wake of soft US jobs data and acute stress in French financial markets.
财富AI 评分4747 Scope Ratings警告美国债务愈发受市场摆布，利息成本飙升与选举加剧债务上限风险
Scope Ratings维持美国主权信用评级在AA-、展望稳定，并警告利息成本上升和市场情绪变化正加大美国债务风险。美国10年期美债收益率为5.27%；若收益率持续比国会预算办公室预测高约1个百分点，未来十年债务或增加3.5万亿美元。Scope预计债务上限41.1万亿美元将在2027年初触及，选举后的政治僵局可能延长债务上限争端。
X·宏观AI 评分3636 S&P 500 Technology stocks have been main beneficiaries of this year’s AI trade, up 30% YTD;…
S&P 500 Technology stocks have been main beneficiaries of this year’s AI trade, up 30% YTD; Communication Services, buoyed by Meta, has more recently joined rally (S&P 500’s best performers in September); yet, credit markets are signalling greater caution; option-adjusted spreads https://t.co/NjNtKd
X·宏观AI 评分3131 The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability.
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%. https://t.co/x6ByfSnZ9P
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美国三个月平均招聘人数修订至5.1万人，9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人
美国三个月平均招聘人数此前公布的8月均值为7.1万人，现修订为5.1万人，9月三个月平均招聘人数也为5.1万人。9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人，高于下修后的8月4.8万人；引用内容称，过去三个月就业增长较此前报告略弱，失业率升至4.2%。
X·宏观AI 评分4747 美国就业数据疲软后，美债市场如何反应
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
X·宏观AI 评分2424 On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the :
On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the @stlouisfed: https://t.co/YsKwAIFqW1 https://t.co/iJefKcW9uA
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Great to join with to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this…
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
X·宏观AI 评分3131 This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials…
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or https://t.co/6GY9Ud2Q
X·宏观AI 评分4949 市场对美联储近期政策行动的定价本周大幅调整
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair…
Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns on its buildings But he said that if the Fed's own internal audit of the project finds evidence of wrongdoing, the DOJ could investigate
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the…
Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the following as-of-dates: April 2, 2025; July 2, 2025; October 1, 2025; December 31, 2025; and April 1, 2026. Data on this H.8 release have been benchmarked through the June 2026 Call
X·宏观AI 评分1919 Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the…
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (1/2) #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation:
Approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation: https://t.co/leWVVgepsb
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney…
Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney general that suggested the DOJ is done investigating the Fed building renovations. He restates his unhappiness with former Fed chair Powell. https://t.co/LH8IxiUnoW 引用 @NickTimiraos：Blanche tells Blo
X·财经博主AI 评分1515 7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀.
7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀. If the Fed continues to defy the market by refraining from hiking later this month, could we see more🚀? - "Bond traders will stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." Start panicking Fed/Williams!
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue).
6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue). This is the first time in 50+ years CUTS saw HIGHER yields. I've argued this was the market sending the Fed a message that they were too easy. Short rates (funds/repo/bills) needed to be higher. https://t.co/jlKJCFXDWH
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 1/7 tl:dr - This week, Fedspeak said "no urgency" to hike in October.
1/7 tl:dr - This week, Fedspeak said "no urgency" to hike in October. Payrolls helped this narrative. The bond market is signaling unhappiness with this potential outcome. "Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." 🧵
X·财经博主AI 评分2121 8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates?
8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates? Because way too many think debt is the MAIN driver of higher yields, interest costs are the burden, and the solution is financial repression such as yield curve control. This would be disastrous. If yields are 引用 @biancoresearch：1
格隆汇快讯AI 评分4444 贝森特淡化对美债收益率上升和AI泡沫的担忧
美国财政部长贝森特称，近期美债收益率上升与全球趋势一致，且未见资金抛售美债转买德债或日债，无需过度惊慌。他还称赞美国对阿根廷的金融干预，并对未来类似援助持开放态度。对于AI泡沫担忧，他认为微软、谷歌和Meta等主要参与者投入大量资金，推动Anthropic和OpenAI显著增长收入。
市场快讯AI 评分4545 贝森特称美国国债收益率上升符合全球趋势，无需惊恐
美国财长贝森特表示，近期美国国债收益率上升符合全球趋势，并称没有出现投资者卖出美债、转买德国国债或日本国债的情况。他还称，美国未来可能采取类似救助阿根廷的金融干预措施，并淡化人工智能泡沫担忧。对于伊朗战争，贝森特认为石油供应将更充足，能源冲击会消退。