X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
This is the way all the smart kids respond when they're wrong. Lol. 引用 @LynAldenContact：@RealChrisCotts I see I made a mistake in responding. You have like 80k posts and only 2k followers, which clearly demonstrates a problem. To more serious accounts, I'd ask why a country reached out and allowed
我被推荐，和看到太多聊AI风险的，说实话，这些风险我都认同，但是少有把风险和机遇放一起分析最后做出结论的，只聊风险并不会显得自己有多聪明，对未来需求的判断才是最难的，起码华尔街那些人23年GPT到现在，预测英伟达的一年后的盈利预期从来没有对过。 https://t.co/b9Nm961XwB 引用 @TJ_Research：美股的泡沫分为估值泡沫和盈利泡沫 估值现在根本没有泡沫，无论静态还是动态。 盈利泡沫需要向前看，在你听到别人聊泡沫时，记得多问一句，你看到未来的盈利风险在哪里？对建立自己的观点会有帮助的
👀 Data Authority, you say? Cannot wait for the reconciliation fun! **note to Tehran and CENTCOM (wink, wink): simple is best, just give us a static-URL-hosted CSV. Leave the rest to us. 引用 @mb_ghalibaf：The Persian Gulf Data Authority is coming. To governments, funds, and firms in the region: yo
Alright real talk. What’s the deal with https://t.co/Jl9y6lebcB. I’ve probably been seeing their ads (in airports, on taxis) for almost 20 years. Never once heard any discourse or mention of them irl. Who or what is their market?
The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues. 引用 @PaulAnleitner：“We become what we behold.” -William Blake
Fair distinction on the terminology and it's not fair for me to blend them. My broader point is that the investment case still assumes today’s revenue persists and grows so you're still making the same implicit bet. In reality, subscribers can churn, API customers can reduce 引用 @ramez：@ShanuMat
这真的管用！ Grok @Bot 可以自负盈亏。 https://t.co/GEZskbNU9h 【被引推文】我让我的 Grok Bot 去想办法自己挣钱。 我爱这个应用 https://t.co/g9SysaLINp 原文： This really works! Grok @Bot can pay for itself. https://t.co/GEZskbNU9h 引用 @mikepat711：I told my Grok Bot to go figure out how to pay for itself. I love this app https://t.co/g
他们也会持有一些东西，押注市场会因为新闻或情绪之类的把它们炒高或打压 归根结底，数字自己会说话，各个团队都清楚自己承担的风险 但是，是的，认为他们都有同样深入的流程并不符合事实 【被引推文】人们高估了多经理人平台（pod shop）在建仓某个标的之前所做的尽职调查 投资论点往往由短期驱动，取决于公司下个季度的财报能否超预期 这其实并不需要你了解业务的长期基本面。只需对公司是否会超出市场一致预期形成看法 PM们当然有一份偏爱的标的清单，他们倾向于在上面下重注，分析师为这些标的维护非常详细的预测模型 账簿中总有一部分保持相当的方向性，并取决于短期催化剂 原文： They also
My absolute favourite type of response to this post is along the lines of “you’re using it wrong” or “there are better models” And then “see, I asked and it gave me the *real* answer: <1,000 words of talking around the question and basically landing at “feels like vibes”>” 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Ask
Tbh idk how this episode came about. David told us he’s an Odd Lots listener. And I’m always down to talk with a fellow musician. https://t.co/kfDSS4U2zQ 引用 @mean_field_zane：@TheStalwart @tracyalloway How’d you pull this off.
True 引用 @TimSweeneyEpic：The games we've long wanted, which didn't exist because they'd cost several times more to make than they'd earn back, will soon become possible. As will the games developers wanted to build, but couldn't with the resources available. It'll be a new golden age of gaming.
拉长时间（退后一步看市场），别踏空（永远待在场内），跌10%会慌的话现在就卖了（跌了都能睡得着的仓位），久期匹配（标的于风险是否匹配），买的是公司不是彩票（关注公司基本面），每次市场下跌我跌得都比市场要多（接受回调，下跌是市场的一部分） 引用 @huxlab：彼得·林奇掌管麦哲伦基金13年，年化收益率高达29.2%。 但在这13年里，标普500发生过9次跌幅超10%的大跌。 每次大跌，林奇跌得都比市场更惨。 面对净值腰斩式的暴跌，他只留下一句话： “在股票市场，最重要的器官不是大脑，而是胃。”
00年科技泡沫到底是市场先知，还是因为基本面出了问题？ 红色前瞻EPS，蓝色指数价格，白色前瞻P/E 虽然指数价格的绝对高点时2000年3月份，但很明显，下跌的起点是前瞻EPS开始下修，2000年8月底。 https://t.co/zQot3NNxNB
OG Roadster 引用 @TrungTPhan：Elon showing Jay Leno the first production unit Tesla Roadster in 2008. Leno amazed by battery pack with 6,831 lithium-ion cells and gives this take on his first test drive: “The good thing with electricity is that you get full torque from 0 RPM. In a gas car, you have
I have heavily pushed back on Trump's scapegoat-y claim that diesel prices are being driven entirely by Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries—it's more like ~50/50 with the Iran War imho. But this comparison is a bit silly. Ukrainian strikes have absolutely hammered 引用 @marcthiessen：🚨BREAKI
This is not that different from a hypothetical scenario I wrote about last month after the Hugging Face report. https://t.co/SuUv92kISc 引用 @Marcus_J_W：New misalignment disclosures! 1. June 17: During RL training, a model exploited a government website’s file-download feature to retrieve server secr
Physics can be managed with enough money and willingness to accept totally impractical compromises. It can't be beaten without those compromises.
Roadster刚完成新一轮展示对特斯拉的当下影响是什么？ 近期市场认真讨论与SpaceX合并的可能性有多大？ 下周10月21日美股盘后特斯拉三季报能否超预期、需要关注的点有哪些？ 在OKX星球上写了一篇文章，核心就是聊这三方面。 简单说就是： Roadster能够改善市场对特斯拉技术能力的观感； https://t.co/1DcgaXwO38 引用 @qinbafrank：太牛了，Tesla Roadster让我们看到了真的能飞起来的汽车，而且零百加速低于一秒。新一代Roadster使用SpaceX冷气推进器（压缩空气喷嘴）来实现短距离跳跃、悬停和空中翻转，技术已经能相互赋能，这会是Sp
Story 2 with the whole lead up to October 19th for the 39th anniversary 引用 @dampedspring：Life as an Investment Banking Analyst Oct 13 - Oct 19 1987. The week before the stock market crash of 1987 was already bizarre at Salomon Brothers. On 10/13, John Gutfreund, perhaps sensing the upcoming event
My thanks to Leslie Picker for an interesting conversation on CNBC’s Closing Bell. @CNBC #economy #markets @LesliePicker https://t.co/BtqYaN1wWx
GPT-6 Astra Pro in ChatGPT got an upgrade with faster responses and improved use of plugins and tools. And now, multiple agents can tackle different parts of a task in parallel. You can follow each agent’s progress and open completed tasks to review their work. Now available to
This is what I do, but at 1.5X 引用 @mrfundman：Set you Grok bot voice to Ara on 1.25x and thank me later 😄 https://t.co/Qt6fB4Je2x
"According to data from Cloudflare, the share of 403 'Forbidden' responses received by agents and bots has fattened considerably since the summer (and is ~double what it once was)." a16z week in charts https://t.co/v75M1ecRAy
remind me when all the tech ppl were like datacenters are going to go up everywhere and everyone will figure it out no problem b/c grooooooowth 引用 @saranormous：Anyone can build a datacenter, they said https://t.co/8iUs4ZXS2p
The good news is if you get your iPhone Duo in January you're already 25% of the way to your iPhone Duo 2. Ugh.
沿海盲区 当创投-科技回音室用轶事故事鼓吹AI采用加速时，覆盖更广美国企业与家庭的数据表明采纳要温热得多。 https://t.co/lKOqWQ4aeK https://t.co/LQ5J4Muwmv 原文： The Coastal Blindspot While the venture-tech echo chamber hypes accelerating AI adoption through anecdotal stories, data covering a wider lens of US business and households suggests much mor
沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？） 没有给任何指引，多数问题都和通胀，货币政策无关，唯一他有聊到“过去一个月基本和我们预期的一样，接下去还有两次会议”
如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑： 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
澄清了1100亿美元ARR数字从何而来。注意用的是「分析师们」而非我认为原先跑出来的「某位分析师」。 那么是多人基于卖方交流交叉验证，还是单一估计？ 【被引推文 @readkrystalhu】@firstadopter Tae你好，是我们写的，乐意澄清——1100亿美元ARR来自参加昨日Analyst Day的卖方分析师根据指引估计，并非公司直接披露。造成任何混淆抱歉。我们已更新稿件。 原文： Clarifies where the $110B ARR figure was coming from. Note the term “analysts” vs analyst that I t
我们已经连续两份热通胀读数，可利率却在下滑。 整个市场都在…… 原文： We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trade, and the recent jitters about Anthropic's revenue numbers matter way more than some random government datapoint right now.
淡定，AI智能体刚落地，却那么多人聊AI泡沫，挺好 引用 @kaixinhuolong：@TJ_Research 桃老师，这次崩了
In the newsletter, I wrote about what a clarifying week this has been for markets. We got two hot inflation prints, and yet rates across the board have been falling. It's never been more obvious that the entire market is just the AI trade, and virtually nothing else. https://t.co/qVKhWb6JoK
昨天：AI泡沫破裂 今天：一看放量反弹，PPI砸不下去，线一画，可能要新高了😂😂😂
2010s: Company Behind AWS Decides to get into filmmaking 2020s: Film Studio Behind Cocaine bear Decides to get into the cloud 引用 @M_C_Klein：@TheStalwart would be funny if the movie studio were Amazon, Apple, or Paramount/Warner
Given the CoreWeave drama. A good time to remember that a datacenter is a bank. 引用 @TheStalwart：A DATACENTER IS A BANK In today’s newsletter, I wrote some things I’ve been thinking about since our chat with @iaindunning, and how maybe one day we’ll have datacenter supervisors like we have bank sup
Chicken McNuggets were a hit within weeks, but the story behind them spans decades. It began with a 1948 contest to breed a bigger chicken and ended with a then largely unknown @RayDalio, who found a way to hedge a chicken by hedging its lunch. Order a box today and you'll get https://t.co/GYN3dkc
Interesting tension across the AI trade this week. TSMC and ASML delivered strong numbers, yet the Anthropic run-rate debate and the CoreWeave selloff have investors questioning the economics underpinning the broader infrastructure buildout. >TSMC reported $46.7B of quarterly
Bonds issued by Tsarist Russia rallied on this news. The dominant broker trading them—which still exists!—was Carl Marks & Co. 引用 @ErinDuboisTrans：>be the first american who hears about stalin dying >be called john cash bravo kojima
在中东，我们正看到拥有大量（非常昂贵的）军事装备与真正拥有军事力量之间的巨大差距。https://t.co/svbbmPh3W2 原文： In the Middle East, we're seeing the vast difference between having lots of (very expensive) military kit, and actually having military power. https://t.co/svbbmPh3W2
soon the entire world will be running on code that nobody has read