X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
And a few other technical points here -- (1) the IMF itself has long indicated it puts the most weight on the "current account" model, which now implies a 21% plus undervaluation (4% surplus is over 3% of GDP higher than the 0.5 to 1 % of GDP norm, each pp of excess surplus is
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve. And China has a problem with external balance (an unusually large surplus), which is a structural problem of the kind that exchange rate adjustment on its own would address. To
"Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances" Guess the PBOC agrees with Secretary Bessent -- who said something similar at Ashville 1/2 引用 @fbermingham：China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of scheduled trade
Korea and Taiwan combined to run a trade surplus of $800b if the September numbers are annualized. Up from $100b two years ago ... If sustained, this is consistent with a $1 trillion current account surplus in Korea and Taiwan next year. Crazy 1/2 https://t.co/HiM6BzK1At
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtcxex #BLSdata https://t.co/kzajZpNwHW
台湾9月半导体出口同比增长46.1%至297.4亿美元，推动台湾9月单月出口额创历史新高。1月至9月半导体出口额为2200亿美元，同比增长47.3%；同期整体出口同比增长60.9%至872.2亿美元。
Good morning. FYI, the link to yesterday's conversation with Wilfred Frost on Sky News. https://t.co/8ZCAgl0Z7I #economy #uk #markets #budget @WilfredFrost @SkyNews https://t.co/R1Y7S3x0nQ
European government bond yields continue their upward march this morning. #economy #bonds #markets #europe https://t.co/KfLauyCVqH
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @CentralBank_TR: https://t.co/FXJ1moQ8Ug Watch live: https://t.co/myzcmKOHtr Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
波斯湾至远东基准航线的油运日运费升至约140万美元，一年前不足5万美元。运费上涨也扩散至中东冲突以外的多条航线，尤其是美国墨西哥湾沿岸和西非相关航线。
.@SecScottBessent: “We have had 1 million private-sector jobs, and those are going to Americans. We are down 300,000 government jobs. We are seeing a manufacturing boom. Last year, we were setting the table, and this year is the banquet. We are seeing construction jobs that are https://t.co/ChlChMlK
.@SecScottBessent: “The reason we had this crippling inflation under the Democrats was they created a demand shock, but then the regulatory state constricted supply. What President Trump has done is create a private-sector demand shock with tax policy, energy policy, and trade https://t.co/2l6sHeY7i
美国390亿美元十年期国债拍卖中标收益率为5.3%，低于预发行利率所反映的市场定价预期。认购倍数为2.77倍，高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍。引用内容称，拍卖前市场关注收益率向5.4%上行及拍卖吸收情况，并讨论了出现明显 auction tail 或 stop-through 和强 indirect 的两种情形。
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/R35o3mL0Ff
8月消费者信贷环比增加83亿美元，低于150亿美元的预期值和前值177亿美元，为三个月来最小增幅。
This sharp rise in UK gilt yields—with the 10-year up another 7 bps this morning to 5.45%—further complicates an already difficult UK budget formulation. Indeed, this may well be the toughest fiscal formulation challenge in years. #economy #markets #uk #budget #yields https://t.co/6VxoJZp7uD
It's been 3+ years since I outlined the only way to kill inflation in a wealth/dissaving driven economy. We are in the early stages of Act 3 and the supply catalyst turned out to be both private and public sector. https://t.co/VmRFAmk13t https://t.co/46GLV7K2x1
Nice concession building into 39BN of 10's and 22BN of 30's in the next 30 hours
Following up on the earlier UK budget note: The 30-year gilt yield now carries a 6% handle, reaching its highest level in 28 years. #economy #markets #bonds #uk #yields https://t.co/XExmwZVA4b
The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their recent peaks. The less good news: both remain elevated and face an uncertain outlook. AAA data below. #economy #markets #gas #diesel #energy https://t.co/8ue41ZiQy2
Wrote about this earlier this week, but I think the heart of the bond selloff is basically countries and companies (hyperscalers) have no choice but to keep borrowing, and investors suddenly have a lot more options about what to put their money in. https://t.co/zy1bsbnNAY https://t.co/9FhJRqdMax
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation when yields have fallen) https://t.co/GQpmw1D0ux
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
联合国粮农组织食品价格指数9月升至近四年高位，较一年前上涨5.8%。谷物、植物油和食糖价格上涨，肉类价格下跌；乳制品价格……
美国30年期固定房贷合同利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高。过去3周利率上涨约50个基点，增幅为2023年初以来最快。
US10y收益率从5.3%向5.4%攀升，资产受到压制，凌晨一点的十年期美债拍卖被视为今晚重要的价格事件之一。若高收益率仍需明显auction tail才能吸收，长债压力可能升温；若出现明显stop-through和强indirect，正文未完，具体判断不完整。
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker @byHeatherLong @JohnFMauldin https://t.co/w3A2pJIihg
Most people get majority of income from selling their labor, however, that type of income has been declining as % of all personal income (long-term trend dating back to 1960s); in addition to wages, Americans now receive significant income from investments, rental properties, and https://t.co/ASQQvX
While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot https://t.co/MGFdA0L3wJ
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities
In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes across firms and over time. Their findings underscore the importance of considering the entire distribution of investment responses rather than focusing on the average effect.
The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.49% last week in the MBA survey, up from 7.3% in the previous week. A new three-year high. Mortgage applications for purchase loans slid again, are down 13% y/y using a four-week rolling average. https://t.co/8TZBXYrFAQ
Consumer spending increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2025. Current-dollar spending was up the most in Florida, at 7.0%, and the least in California, at 4.2%. Get details in our blog: https://t.co/OejB60v8Zj https://t.co/if66Zbo4jX
今日油轮运费进一步上涨。9月初以来的运费涨势扰乱实货原油市场，推高了Dated Brent等基准价格，也迫使西非原油（WAF crude）出现创纪录折价。
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtd545 #BLSdata https://t.co/QMHpuji94s
美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为，到年底再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。原文未提供具体加息幅度或确定的行动安排。 https://t.co/QEWpwekHD5