Nonfarm employment little changed in September 2026 #BLSdata
Nonfarm employment little changed in September 2026 https://t.co/sjh6as1I3K #BLSdata https://t.co/nopcUo69Gp
#宏观/数据
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分00
X·宏观AI 评分5656 中国拟在国庆假期短暂停运后恢复成品油出口
中国拟在国庆假期短暂停运后恢复成品油出口。原文称，此举将有助于缓解全球柴油、汽油和航空燃油市场偏紧，并附有链接 https://t.co/uC1teY4fqw
X·宏观AI 评分4444 美国财政年度赤字升至近2万亿美元，约占GDP的6%
美国截至9月30日的财政年度预算赤字升至近2万亿美元，具体为1.993万亿美元。尽管经济表现稳健，美国赤字仍约占GDP的6%。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 Taking a step back from the ups-and-downs of the oil market, one remarkable feat: global economic…
Taking a step back from the ups-and-downs of the oil market, one remarkable feat: global economic growth remains largely unchanged since the spring. @KGeorgieva: "Steady global growth has continued" The IMF/WB annual gathering is next week: https://t.co/Rn1XhHXA5L
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 "AI accounts for the only positive trend in US construction spending, having risen by 38% since…
"AI accounts for the only positive trend in US construction spending, having risen by 38% since January 2024. Unfortunately the other three main categories are down since then (manufacturing -28%, commercial real estate -13% and residential -6%). That’s why the decline in planned https://t.co/9qvQpt
X·财经博主AI 评分3232 Some red meat for in Cembalest's latest (cc: )
Some red meat for @friedberg in Cembalest's latest (cc: @Jason @theallinpod) >"By 2030-2031, 100% of Federal tax revenues are projected by the CBO to be needed just to pay entitlements and interest on the Federal debt. Something may have to give by then, possibly after a riot in https://t.co/rCamOH
X·宏观AI 评分2626 美国政府是在卖币么？关于这一点，分析值得看看。Galaxy没有把这一波美国政府相关比特币转入Coinbase Prime写成已经卖出。他们前天的链上帖做的是来源拆解和持仓核算：确认币进了美国政府在Co…
美国政府是在卖币么？关于这一点，@glxyresearch的这篇分析值得看看。Galaxy没有把这一波美国政府相关比特币转入Coinbase Prime写成已经卖出。他们前天的链上帖做的是来源拆解和持仓核算：确认币进了美国政府在Coinbase https://t.co/wEz4ub3CCJ 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.
X·宏观AI 评分2828 Korea is heading for a current account surplus of close to $500 billion this year --
Korea is heading for a current account surplus of close to $500 billion this year -- That of course raises the question of how is the surplus being recycled. Korean purchases of US equities is definitely a big part of the answer, but no longer the entire answer 1/many https://t.co/R6Pq60XPjJ
X·宏观AI 评分55 And the sums involved are so staggeringly big that they are bound to leave traces (Korea is now…
And the sums involved are so staggeringly big that they are bound to leave traces (Korea is now similar to China in that respect) 9/9 https://t.co/k0ix5xriL0
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Bottom -- very little has so far flowed into the US bond market (to fund either the borrowing to…
Bottom -- very little has so far flowed into the US bond market (to fund either the borrowing to build the data centers that use the chips or the US fiscal deficit) ... but it isn't clear that the old equity outflows offsetting the surplus equilibrium will persist going forward
X·宏观AI 评分3535 昨晚30年期美债拍卖数据整体表现也是很不错的，超出市场预期，有效缓解了市场对美国长端美债需求疲软的担忧。具体拍卖数据如下：
昨晚30年期美债拍卖数据整体表现也是很不错的，超出市场预期，有效缓解了市场对美国长端美债需求疲软的担忧。具体拍卖数据如下： 1、得标利率 5.618%高于预发行利率（5.618%与预发行利率基本持平，未出现明显的尾部利差），创下2000年以来的最高水平，反映出投资者对长端美债要求较高的风险补偿。 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的十年期美债拍卖结果是一个好的信号： 1）美国390亿美元10年期国债拍卖中标收益率5.3%，低于预发行利率、即市场定价预期； 2）认购倍数2.77倍明显高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍； https://t.co/LTLpBuH9Bw
X·宏观AI 评分1919 Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the…
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the day) https://t.co/GnyMtCzoZX
X·宏观AI 评分4242 美国房贷申请连续第五周下降，10月2日当周降4.2%，30年期房贷利率升至7.49%
房贷申请连续第五周下降，截至10月2日当周减少4.2%。30年期房贷利率升至7.49%，较前一周上升近20个基点，为近三年来最高水平。
X·宏观AI 评分5959 Waller称支持通胀回到2%目标的额外加息不必在连续会议进行
Waller表示，他预计还需额外加息，以支持通胀更及时回到2%的目标。加息时间有一定灵活性，不必安排在连续会议，但应在可接受的时间内完成。
X·宏观AI 评分3232 Year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes rose across the board in September according…
Year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes rose across the board in September according @NewYorkFed Survey of Consumer Expectations https://t.co/x4IjCDsvB8
X·宏观AI 评分3131 Share of consumers expecting higher stock prices a year from now declined to 40.2% in September
Share of consumers expecting higher stock prices a year from now declined to 40.2% in September @NewYorkFed https://t.co/FElUqQmjKr
X·宏观AI 评分4343 8月美国消费者循环信贷余额下降48亿美元，创2024年11月以来最大降幅
8月，消费者循环信贷余额下降48亿美元，降幅为2024年11月以来最大。循环信贷主要包括信用卡。
X·宏观AI 评分1919 Financing costs rose in August … average interest rate on credit cards with assessed interest…
Financing costs rose in August … average interest rate on credit cards with assessed interest reached 22.36%; average interest rate on a 5-year new car loan rose to 7.54% https://t.co/rZQamsF40o
X·宏观AI 评分3535 gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100
gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100 https://t.co/ozSeo6O0Qk
X·宏观AI 评分2626 On October 6, 2026, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman gave remarks on modernizing regulation and…
On October 6, 2026, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman gave remarks on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV https://t.co/ubwQHalP7D
X·宏观AI 评分2525 There are clearly some Fed policymakers who favor an unconditional higher policy path, but the…
There are clearly some Fed policymakers who favor an unconditional higher policy path, but the center of the Committee remains focused on incoming data rather than pre-committing to further tightening. https://t.co/eq6vcf4ZRE
X·宏观AI 评分3737 Initial jobless claims down to 197k vs. 200k est. & 199k prior; continuing claims at 1.716M vs.…
Initial jobless claims down to 197k vs. 200k est. & 199k prior; continuing claims at 1.716M vs. 1.700M est. & 1.699M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.6k), IL (+1.2k), & NY (+1.0k); greatest decreases in HI (-0.3k), MI (-0.2k), & MD (-0.1k) https://t.co/sW75FYCuOk
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美联储理事沃勒称，若经济数据符合预期，他倾向于再加息两次
美联储理事沃勒表示，若经济数据继续符合预期，他预计还会加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到2%的目标；他同时称，加息时点有一定灵活性。原文链接：https://t.co/rjvidGfLRW
X·宏观AI 评分2626 现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里
现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https://t.co/Ctd7WzHeE1 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
X·宏观AI 评分4949 初请失业金人数四周均值持平于57年来最低水平
美国初请失业金人数四周均值持平于57年来最低水平。作者称，截去峰值后更容易观察低谷，并表示这一曾长期用于衡量劳动力市场的指标显示当前劳动力市场可能是其有生之年最佳。
X·宏观AI 评分3535 We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is…
We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is… … cutting cuts to fresh recent seasonal lows. https://t.co/E7vpk6vNJn 引用 @VKMacro：China refinery run rates are trending lower again for SOE. Where are we on imports? https://t.co/fUREB6DGS8
X·宏观AI 评分4545 AI热潮与贸易韧性提振前景，但收益分布不均
全球贸易在2026年上半年展现出超出预期的韧性，但不同领域表现不一。服务贸易和部分地区更易受到中东冲突影响。
X·宏观AI 评分3434 Bullish sentiment jumped to 40.3% vs. 34.6% in latest (week ending 10/7/26) while bearish sentiment…
Bullish sentiment jumped to 40.3% vs. 34.6% in latest @AAIISentiment (week ending 10/7/26) while bearish sentiment declined sharply to 39.0% from 46.5% the prior week ... this week’s special question polls AAII members on allocating new cash https://t.co/VvsNHORes1
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Brazilian stocks this year are up 40% (in dollar terms). Haven't been paying close attention to…
Brazilian stocks this year are up 40% (in dollar terms). Haven't been paying close attention to that market, but it must have a lot of AI stocks.
X·宏观AI 评分1414 Let's hope that the use of gasoline / diesel online price-disclosure works better in the UK than it…
Let's hope that the use of gasoline / diesel online price-disclosure works better in the UK than it did in Chile, where it pushed prices higher (rather than undercut rivals, many gas stations matched their rivals' higher prices instead): https://t.co/69zTGrEYtF
X·宏观AI 评分3636 Latest 3Q2026 real GDP estimate (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from GDPNow model is +3.6% , down…
Latest 3Q2026 real GDP estimate (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed GDPNow model is +3.6% , down from October 6 prior read of +3.7% https://t.co/Q9OgM6Ykg2
X·宏观AI 评分4545 2026年9月美国非农就业人数基本持平
美国9月非农就业人数基本持平。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 I've been making the case for bonds.
I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60E
X·宏观AI 评分6464 Javier Blas 图表显示波斯湾至远东油运成本升至每日超过 140 万美元
Javier Blas 表示，波斯湾至远东航线的油运成本升至每日超过 140 万美元，图表纵轴因此再次上调。其他航线的运费也明显上涨；原文附有作者 9 月的评论文章：https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
X·宏观AI 评分3737 The tries to answer what’s behind high diesel prices?
The @DallasFed tries to answer what’s behind high diesel prices? “Global refinery capacity has declined by as much as 10 percent amid mounting transportation challenges and geopolitical tensions.” https://t.co/6krbOSco3t
X·宏观AI 评分1616 New in the Survey: Charting the Economy, Second Quarter 2026
New in the Survey: Charting the Economy, Second Quarter 2026 https://t.co/IEBwarPtnM #SCB https://t.co/EPV3a2PM11
X·宏观AI 评分1515 It was great chatting with about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness"…
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
X·宏观AI 评分1818 And there are of course offsetting developments in the financial account -- DRAM dollars now trump…
And there are of course offsetting developments in the financial account -- DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars ... (as an aside, this shock hasn't reduced China's surplus, as it increased both exports and imports similarly)
X·宏观AI 评分5555 台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国为500亿美元
台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国9月贸易顺差为500亿美元。按年化计算，两地顺差合计约9000亿美元；作者称，过去一年这一规模占全球GDP的比重增加了超过0.5个百分点，并将全球经常账户冲击比作20世纪70年代的石油冲击。
X·宏观AI 评分00 Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds…
Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds through 9/30. Cover well. Go max long for alpha a bit above current level using a complicated options strategy recognizing the vol implications of the CTD flip. And people think