X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Very good piece "The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe" 2/2 https://t.co/eOgu6xEn7g
台湾9月半导体出口同比增长46.1%至297.4亿美元，推动台湾9月单月出口额创历史新高。1月至9月半导体出口额为2200亿美元，同比增长47.3%；同期整体出口同比增长60.9%至872.2亿美元。
The first hurricane of the North Atlantic season: Isais, which has formed inside the US Gulf of Mexico. On current tracking forecast, the threat is limited to GoM oil production. Crucially, little refining capacity in Alabama (3 refineries in total, with ~140,000 of capacity).
波斯湾至远东基准航线的油运日运费升至约140万美元，一年前不足5万美元。运费上涨也扩散至中东冲突以外的多条航线，尤其是美国墨西哥湾沿岸和西非相关航线。
据半官方的法尔斯通讯社，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡的“非法”航线。作者称，这实际上是革命卫队首次公开承认该水道已不再关闭。
The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their recent peaks. The less good news: both remain elevated and face an uncertain outlook. AAA data below. #economy #markets #gas #diesel #energy https://t.co/8ue41ZiQy2
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and pharmaceuticals, triggered by anticipation of possible tariffs that never materialized 1/2 https://t.co/OCCIYUYLXh 引用 @mattyglesias：Trade deficit is a function of savings dynamics and capital flows, not
今日油轮运费进一步上涨。9月初以来的运费涨势扰乱实货原油市场，推高了Dated Brent等基准价格，也迫使西非原油（WAF crude）出现创纪录折价。
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
中国拒绝了欧盟要求其自愿限制混合动力汽车对欧出口的请求，双方进入最后阶段谈判以避免贸易冲突。原文附有报道链接：https://t.co/0PxI73B411
布伦特原油一度跌破100美元，随后回升至100美元上方。原文引用IEA负责人周三的表态称，成员国已准备好在必要时从战略储备中追加释放原油，并将优先保障供应偏紧的柴油。
UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边的船只遇袭总数达到13起。https://t.co/jpmGIUsS1X
I don't think Mr. Balding quite understands how the game is played -- the effort to negotiate a voluntary export restraint wasn't really aimed at China, but rather at maintaining unity in Europe. Šefčovič had to try ... 1/2 引用 @BaldingsWorld：I can't believe I am seeing so much shock that China e
美国副总统万斯在接受路透社采访时称，尽管伊朗不时袭击霍尔木兹海峡的商船，但伊朗基本上无法阻止石油通过该水道出口。
Vitol CEO said the oil market has gone through three distinctive phases, at this overlapping each other: 1) a crude crisis; 2) followed by a refined product crisis; and now 3) a shipping crisis. On the later, my @Opinion column from September 🚢⤵️https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
The cost of heating oil in Maine is up 80% from last year. https://t.co/0iD19D4PbG https://t.co/x9Lqt1vwmx
印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨，达到当月最高需求水平。8月消费量由1860.6万吨下修至1854.5万吨；9月柴油消费同比增长5.6%至716.4万吨，汽油消费同比增长8.0%。
A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed enthusiasm about the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered the bull market. https://t.co/YWr3Vi8dP1 https://t.co/oC6gDrTLjg
秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计全球鱼粉产量将在2026年降至十年低位。原文称鱼粉和鱼油价格处于纪录高位。
EIA expects lower natural gas and propane heating costs this winter. #STEO 💻 https://t.co/B65OLrQr4J Register now for the Tuesday, October 13, NASEO webinar featuring our newest Winter Fuels Outlook. 💻 https://t.co/MLrOGdIjlW https://t.co/o3M5ARnLKB
Excellent roundtable conversation alongside @Erica_Downs_ on China’s Hormuz response (Beijing Swing!) and what it has revealed to us about China’s vastly underappreciated [discretionary] oil market influence. Huge thanks to @reziemba for the invitation and to @CNASdc for hosting
Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并将当前定价描述为危机交割定价。引用内容给出的 6/10/2026 Dated Brent 评估价为 $125.53/bbl，实物价差为 $19.105/bbl；作者表示，高昂的运输成本是部分原因，但这种价差也不会出现在疲弱或正常市场。
Will be framed for my wall of analytical humility. https://t.co/lf1QhIyovR
Gosh, $200/bbl oil? Who would ever put such an outrageous number out there... 😅 引用 @OilHeadlineNews：Vitol chief warns of tanker shortage and risk of $200-a-barrel oil Head of world’s largest independent oil trader says shipping squeeze is creating new bottleneck despite increased Gulf flows @sta
Early in the war I wondered why we didn't see more ships risking the journey across Hormuz for big profits despite obvious danger Easily enough spread—early in the war Gulf oil prices were functionally negative—to pay for sky-high insurance & crew hazard pay Well, we got there: https://t.co/f8IwKE
They’re absolutely going to kick me out of this city https://t.co/bOyn9rUWOl
Shell CEO Wael Sawan on the new conversation around energy: “I think there's a recognition once again that you cannot have national security without energy security. You cannot have an industrial or an economic strategy that is not underpinned with a solid energy strategy.”
Shell CEO Wael Sawan表示，尽管发生了种种情况，中东石油流量目前已接近战前水平的80%以上，显示出许多国家的韧性。
作者讨论霍尔木兹海峡原油运输恢复后油价仍未大幅回落的原因，并称关键在成本。文中援引Kpler统计，沙特、UAE、伊拉克、阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔9月原油及凝析油出口约1470万桶。
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy估算，过去7至10天平均每天约有1400万桶油品通过霍尔木兹海峡，其中原油约1200万桶、成品油约200万桶。该数据统计的是通过海峡的流量，未计入绕行管道输送的额外油量。
“I prefer the world of disruption” - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne (It says a lot about the trading a capabilities of TotalEnergies — and the money it is going to make this year shipping crude via Strait of Hormuz)
二叠纪盆地天然气产量推动美国天然气产量在2026年7月创下历史新高。
Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewhat. Had heard that even before this latest escalation CENTCOM was regularly intercepting
Some questions I have about the recent escalation of Iranian strikes: https://t.co/hsAzkec3dE 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewh
Guys, I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is safe right now
If I had to nitpick I'd actually say it's the lack of refineries 引用 @staunovo：Trump says refineries are reason for high gasoline price #oott