X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
PODCAST: "Is China Controlling the World’s Oil Market?" Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the global oil market, Iran, President Trump, and what Beijing is up to. https://t.co/eU1Effb0s5
Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, sparing the US refining capacity of a direct hit. The main refineries alongside his path were >150km away in Mobile (AL) and Pascagoula (MS). Refined fuel production (and offshore crude production) should recover quickly. 引用 @JavierBlas：The first
With diesel back under the spotlight, please find below Google's summary of price movements over the last year. Underlying this is what has become an increasingly influential, multi-directional causal relationship between geopolitics, domestic politics, and economics. For https://t.co/WUxqiORMRK
Worth remembering that to capture trade in gold you need to look at bars (metal shapes technically ...) as well as the gold line item. The US imported a ton of bars in q1 2025 ... https://t.co/mPVM1mm5r6 引用 @jasonfurman：The United States is having an extraordinary record year for exports. Exports
Rory Johnston称，霍尔木兹海峡袭击似乎正在放缓，并至少部分逆转近期原油流量的强劲恢复；与此同时，袭击频次已达到战事以来最高，仍有超过1000万桶/日原油通过海峡。引用内容称，过去11天霍尔木兹海峡及更广泛海湾地区共发生16次袭击，UKMTO报告了又一起袭击。原文将袭击放缓及原油流量恢复部分逆转列为看涨因素，将袭击频次处于战事以来最高水平且仍有大量原油通行为看跌因素。
川普称俄罗斯总统普京已同意向美国供应 300 万吨柴油。原文还提到，美国正在援助乌克兰，同时拟从乌克兰的对手俄罗斯购买柴油。
伊朗革命卫队称，将袭击在该地区使用“非法”航线穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只，威胁范围不限于海峡咽喉附近。
Read more about the latest developments in Canadian crude oil differentials and the fundamentals that drive them in the latest edition of our North American Oil Data Deck: https://t.co/Wgy82jyfPz
阿尔伯塔Hardisty的WCS原油较WTI贴水扩大至每桶25美元以上，Houston的价差扩大至每桶16美元以上。原文称，两地价差分别达到2023年11月和2023年1月以来最宽水平，并称价差扩大由质量相关因素等共同驱动。
最新估算显示，霍尔木兹海峡七日平均石油流量于9月24日达到峰值1620万桶/日。随后伊朗航运袭击增加，流量回落约300万至400万桶/日；过去两周流量为1200万至1300万桶/日。
布伦特和迪拜原油期限结构维持较强的近月现货溢价，WTI则走弱。WTI近月现货溢价目前低于每桶1美元，这是自8月中旬以来首次。
海湾航运仍然危险，伊朗邻近水域确认遭袭船只数量维持高位。10月9日的7日累计确认命中数为8次，低于峰值11次，但除战争开始时的几天外，高于其他任何一周。
Brent crude prompt futures price up $0.03/bbl over the past month. https://t.co/PnTjIPFB18
I CANNOT OVERSTATE HOW MUCH OF A NOTHING BURGER THIS IS https://t.co/XaUOkyZqzy
lol, 500 kt in November is only 125 kbpd of diesel. Russia usually exports nearly ten times that volume when its refinery fleet isn't getting bombed by Ukrainian drones 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP ANNOUNCES DEAL WITH PUTIN FOR RUSSIAN DIESEL SUPPLIES President Trump says he held a “highly successful” disc
I used a 7.46 factor to convert metric tons into barrels (as recommended by BP)
BREAKING: US President Trump says he has agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia would export “to the American and Global Marketplace” diesel. The quantities are, however quite small to make a meaningful impact. Trump says Russia will export immediately ~300,000 tonnes (~2.2 https://t.co/9anQ66GsXq
The reaction of European governments will be fascinating. #economy #markets #energy #diesel @cnbc https://t.co/L6Iw3HKzQA
美国取消对俄罗斯原产柴油的制裁后，莫斯科承诺11月提供50万吨柴油。Rory Johnston称，这相当于每日12.5万桶；俄罗斯炼油厂未遭乌克兰无人机袭击时，柴油出口量通常接近这一水平的十倍。
Full headline is 1 days consumption? I mean thanks I guess. 引用 @financialjuice：Trump: Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Oil Market - Truth Social https://t.co/PcQn6r7Nxk
Let’s than a month since Congress voted for (and President Trump signed into law) the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026” that gives the White House huge powers to limit the Kremlin’s sales of energy, the first move is to lift sanctions on Russian diesel.
The Trump-Putin deal on diesel puts Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in a difficult spot: if Kyiv continues blowing up Russian refineries, Zelenskyy would be directly jeopardising a political and economic deal between Washington and Moscow.
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/fR212p97cV
Rory Johnston称，原油上涨，战事中伊朗航运遇袭的强度达到最急剧的节奏，使此前经霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量恢复出现逆转。推文还称，白宫在柴油问题上愈发急切，并表示完整报告见回复：https://t.co/BjdajgN5Jb
when you do a TV hit and the anchor closes off with something along the lines of “the perfect person to provide us that necessary Commodity Context” https://t.co/bshPZyW8Uo
中国拟在国庆假期短暂停运后恢复成品油出口。原文称，此举将有助于缓解全球柴油、汽油和航空燃油市场偏紧，并附有链接 https://t.co/uC1teY4fqw
Taking a step back from the ups-and-downs of the oil market, one remarkable feat: global economic growth remains largely unchanged since the spring. @KGeorgieva: "Steady global growth has continued" The IMF/WB annual gathering is next week: https://t.co/Rn1XhHXA5L
Per Grok, “Trucked compressed natural gas is reported to cost roughly four times pipeline deliveries once labor, equipment, and truck fuel are included, and scaling it even to 100 MW of the 2.45 GW Project Jupiter site would require a large trailer roughly every 40 minutes.”
美国政府是在卖币么？关于这一点，@glxyresearch的这篇分析值得看看。Galaxy没有把这一波美国政府相关比特币转入Coinbase Prime写成已经卖出。他们前天的链上帖做的是来源拆解和持仓核算：确认币进了美国政府在Coinbase https://t.co/wEz4ub3CCJ 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.
gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100 https://t.co/ozSeo6O0Qk
现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https://t.co/Ctd7WzHeE1 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is… … cutting cuts to fresh recent seasonal lows. https://t.co/E7vpk6vNJn 引用 @VKMacro：China refinery run rates are trending lower again for SOE. Where are we on imports? https://t.co/fUREB6DGS8
PODCAST: Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the oil market, Iran, President Trump, and China. Spotify 🔉: https://t.co/PiC6w5OV5n Apple Podcast 🔉: https://t.co/Mao4AlL8XE Youtube 📺: https://t.co/CsZTFBsrp9 Substack 📄: https://t.co/AOQ3kFzqt3
Let's hope that the use of gasoline / diesel online price-disclosure works better in the UK than it did in Chile, where it pushed prices higher (rather than undercut rivals, many gas stations matched their rivals' higher prices instead): https://t.co/69zTGrEYtF
Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming threat of Hurricane Isaias [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/m9GpyVH9SS
Javier Blas 表示，波斯湾至远东航线的油运成本升至每日超过 140 万美元，图表纵轴因此再次上调。其他航线的运费也明显上涨；原文附有作者 9 月的评论文章：https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
The @DallasFed tries to answer what’s behind high diesel prices? “Global refinery capacity has declined by as much as 10 percent amid mounting transportation challenges and geopolitical tensions.” https://t.co/6krbOSco3t
Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, on the Oil Ground Up podcast here: https://t.co/6Vpk6hKs0U 引用 @HormuzReport：BREAKING: A senior Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran huge
And there are of course offsetting developments in the financial account -- DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars ... (as an aside, this shock hasn't reduced China's surplus, as it increased both exports and imports similarly)
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury is targeting the remnants of Iran’s shadow fleet: the aging network of tankers the regime relies on to move billions of dollars’ worth of petroleum and petroleum products to foreign markets. Today’s action effectively