X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Cooling LLM Spend Timely data suggests paid models ARR growth slowing considerably in recent months. How will the needed $3tln/yr in revenue come by 2030 when linear growth (or worse) is happening at 120bln/yr? h/t @Silicon_Data https://t.co/WtFsXAjiSP https://t.co/34IoGdPhrU
Nice concession building into 39BN of 10's and 22BN of 30's in the next 30 hours
Following up on the earlier UK budget note: The 30-year gilt yield now carries a 6% handle, reaching its highest level in 28 years. #economy #markets #bonds #uk #yields https://t.co/XExmwZVA4b
The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their recent peaks. The less good news: both remain elevated and face an uncertain outlook. AAA data below. #economy #markets #gas #diesel #energy https://t.co/8ue41ZiQy2
Wrote about this earlier this week, but I think the heart of the bond selloff is basically countries and companies (hyperscalers) have no choice but to keep borrowing, and investors suddenly have a lot more options about what to put their money in. https://t.co/zy1bsbnNAY https://t.co/9FhJRqdMax
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation when yields have fallen) https://t.co/GQpmw1D0ux
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be declaring economic war with the U.S. 引用 @DannyDayan5：Nationalism has made the world more expensive. Europe and their bond markets have been the most negatively impacted. There are actions policymakers ca
联合国粮农组织食品价格指数9月升至近四年高位，较一年前上涨5.8%。谷物、植物油和食糖价格上涨，肉类价格下跌；乳制品价格……
For week ended 10/2/26, bulk of ETF categories had positive inflows, led by government bonds and U.S. large caps … cyclical sectors had largest outflows @DataArbor https://t.co/HwOrY0Cifx
The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports of Chinese hybrids has jumped to 0.5m cars in a short period of time (in a total market of just over 10m cars right now) 2/ https://t.co/aulLgmX3A4
It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to discourage retaliation ...) before the prohibitive tariff kicks in will be the commission's tool of choice this fall 4/4 https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp
Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types) and are four times current EU exports to China (of all car types) 3/ https://t.co/WpZfWDiOOu
EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are clear import surges that are disrupting parts of the European economy 1/ https://t.co/nrRa8m2Mdj
美国30年期固定房贷合同利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高。过去3周利率上涨约50个基点，增幅为2023年初以来最快。
While the world frets human extinction from AI, @KevRGordon and I look at AI’s impact on humans’ jobs: https://t.co/Lm87VvW5YM
US10y收益率从5.3%向5.4%攀升，资产受到压制，凌晨一点的十年期美债拍卖被视为今晚重要的价格事件之一。若高收益率仍需明显auction tail才能吸收，长债压力可能升温；若出现明显stop-through和强indirect，正文未完，具体判断不完整。
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker @byHeatherLong @JohnFMauldin https://t.co/w3A2pJIihg
你们以为KOL在DISCORD里给你们发金猪，实际上你们做了量化的流动性🥲 https://t.co/RxvqcOiGFS
Most people get majority of income from selling their labor, however, that type of income has been declining as % of all personal income (long-term trend dating back to 1960s); in addition to wages, Americans now receive significant income from investments, rental properties, and https://t.co/ASQQvX
While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot https://t.co/MGFdA0L3wJ
And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can lead to swings in Korea's surplus of the kind not seen since the change in the oil surplus back in the 70s. DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars 3/3 https://t.co/2XcO1lHHkj
One thing that absolutely is in the textbooks -- a big investment boom both pulls in imports and changes the savings v investment balance. The current data center/ AI investment boom is in fact unusually import intensive 2/3 https://t.co/lILe9wv7wx
One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and pharmaceuticals, triggered by anticipation of possible tariffs that never materialized 1/2 https://t.co/OCCIYUYLXh 引用 @mattyglesias：Trade deficit is a function of savings dynamics and capital flows, not
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities
In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes across firms and over time. Their findings underscore the importance of considering the entire distribution of investment responses rather than focusing on the average effect.
The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.49% last week in the MBA survey, up from 7.3% in the previous week. A new three-year high. Mortgage applications for purchase loans slid again, are down 13% y/y using a four-week rolling average. https://t.co/8TZBXYrFAQ
NB: Recently learned that blowing a raspberry is Cockney rhyming slang. Raspberry is condensation Raspberry Tart, and tart rhymes with fart, which is what blowing a raspberry sounds like. 引用 @talmonsmith：Earl at BMO said a while ago we'll be hitting 6 on the 30yr sooner than later and i remember
Consumer spending increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2025. Current-dollar spending was up the most in Florida, at 7.0%, and the least in California, at 4.2%. Get details in our blog: https://t.co/OejB60v8Zj https://t.co/if66Zbo4jX
今日油轮运费进一步上涨。9月初以来的运费涨势扰乱实货原油市场，推高了Dated Brent等基准价格，也迫使西非原油（WAF crude）出现创纪录折价。
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
final assembly of all the data center computers has shifted to Mexico and Taiwan as much as it has shifted to Vietnam ... https://t.co/mly2GqkidL
The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in effect fentanyl tariff, which didn't exclude electronics -- if even 30% of current computer imports came from China that would add $100b to the bilateral balance! https://t.co/Qb51fUvgyE 引用 @tradewart
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European safeguards limiting China's auto exports (presumably b/c of a significant tariff rate quota that allows some ongoing exports) -- and then the discussion will turn to other sectors 2/2
中国拒绝了欧盟要求其自愿限制混合动力汽车对欧出口的请求，双方进入最后阶段谈判以避免贸易冲突。原文附有报道链接：https://t.co/0PxI73B411
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtd545 #BLSdata https://t.co/QMHpuji94s