X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming threat of Hurricane Isaias [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/m9GpyVH9SS
美国9月非农就业人数基本持平。
FYI, on the growing risks of repeated US interventions to sway market pricing: https://t.co/36nBr4ORK1 @FT #economy #markets https://t.co/OcYTddGvF9
I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60E
And then from there, it's easy to see what other items are in the same neighborhood in multi-dimensional space. Like I said, still needs a ton of work. But check it out! https://t.co/sWc2SQJ7CD
My approach too solving this problem is to assemble big lists of items, and then have a model identify the essence of each item outputted in a series of haikus (to constrain the output and force creativity) which are then fed to an embedding model.
沃勒从几周前呼吁“给通胀降温一个机会”，转为暗示可能进一步加息。他将此归因于能源价格上涨、AI建设规模扩大和更多关税。
美国总统特朗普称，华盛顿不会在11月3日美国中期选举前攻击伊朗。正文提出三种可能解释：美伊谈判正在进行、特朗普意在安抚德黑兰；这是一种转移注意力的策略，攻击仍可能发生；或是在对石油市场进行口头干预。
最后都是靠这些新闻引导一些机构和散户做线性外推 https://t.co/4NcOdDv1lX
特朗普表示，美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗。文章称，他可能意识到选前强硬言论推高了原油价格，并讽刺其言论是否可信。
Javier Blas 表示，波斯湾至远东航线的油运成本升至每日超过 140 万美元，图表纵轴因此再次上调。其他航线的运费也明显上涨；原文附有作者 9 月的评论文章：https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
Regular reminder that this kind of thinking has always been wrong. https://t.co/HmwjhAmYQH 引用 @Forbes：Jeff Bezos Claims AI Could Allow For 3-Day Workweeks And One-Income Families https://t.co/cpgZl69ut8 https://t.co/00QCFHBOq5
Lisa Abramowicz 表示，FT 一篇关于 OpenAI 营收低于最初报道的报道，促使甲骨文股价下跌超过 5%。她还称，英伟达和 AMD 至微软的损失扩大，并将此作为科技行业对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 敞口较大的迹象。原文链接：https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/2108242872470319492
Many nasty replies to my piece yesterday on flatlining model revenue b/c they were highly confident OpenAI ARR surged to 70bln based based on an unsourced leak. Lots mocking the use of @tickerplus as an estimate. Turns it was... 50bln. smh https://t.co/MQWQAAMi79 https://t.co/X47HrfOpom 引用 @BobEU
FT: OpenAI ARR比先前市场预估的少了200亿，市场下跌 这种新闻怎么理解？ 1. 首先ARR不是营收，你可以拿1个月去年化，1周去年化，或者1天去年化，除非内部改标准（比如上年用1个月年化，今年用1天年化），那就是很严重的欺诈，不然只要标准一样没问题，看的是同比增速。当然上市后有监管的衡量方法 2.
The @DallasFed tries to answer what’s behind high diesel prices? “Global refinery capacity has declined by as much as 10 percent amid mounting transportation challenges and geopolitical tensions.” https://t.co/6krbOSco3t
New in the Survey: Charting the Economy, Second Quarter 2026 https://t.co/IEBwarPtnM #SCB https://t.co/EPV3a2PM11
Funny thing about $SPY is it's down 60bp and realizing 10 vol annualized. $TLT fell 7% in 5 weeks. Just imagine what that would smell like for SPY
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低迷一些，SET UP好
There's a lot of worries that AI will take the "fun' out of shopping. IDK, maybe it will, but it doesn't have to. I want people to have fun using @Haiku_Zone to discover things they never would have otherwise come across. 引用 @401Casey：Joe let me beta test this and it’s the most delightful applicati
I so so so badly want this war to end, but imho it feels strategically unwise to broadcast in writing that you won’t attack the country with which you’ve been stuck in a months-long tit-for-tat
Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, on the Oil Ground Up podcast here: https://t.co/6Vpk6hKs0U 引用 @HormuzReport：BREAKING: A senior Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran huge
At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 for OpenAI+Anthropic *together* to reach 1tln in ARR.
And there are of course offsetting developments in the financial account -- DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars ... (as an aside, this shock hasn't reduced China's surplus, as it increased both exports and imports similarly)
台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国9月贸易顺差为500亿美元。按年化计算，两地顺差合计约9000亿美元；作者称，过去一年这一规模占全球GDP的比重增加了超过0.5个百分点，并将全球经常账户冲击比作20世纪70年代的石油冲击。
Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds through 9/30. Cover well. Go max long for alpha a bit above current level using a complicated options strategy recognizing the vol implications of the CTD flip. And people think
And a few other technical points here -- (1) the IMF itself has long indicated it puts the most weight on the "current account" model, which now implies a 21% plus undervaluation (4% surplus is over 3% of GDP higher than the 0.5 to 1 % of GDP norm, each pp of excess surplus is
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
I've seen some people say that the math solutions are just pre-IPO "hype." Maybe that's true in the sense that they're a signal to investors that in a lot of industries, OpenAI will be in a position to capture some of the really big gains from this technology.
Theoretical math is largely just an intellectual pursuit. But there's a lot of money to be made in areas like pharma or chip design. And it may make sense for OAI and Anth to get out of the token-selling business and just beat everyone else to commercially viable breakthroughs.
THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussion. The best public models will always be far behind what the labs can work with internally. Think about what this means for intelligence-intensive industries. https://t.co/CjZYvil3SQ
Expired: AI will take your job. Tired: A human working with AI will take your job. Wired: A human working with an unreleased model at an AI company will take your job. 引用 @TheStalwart：THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussi
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury is targeting the remnants of Iran’s shadow fleet: the aging network of tankers the regime relies on to move billions of dollars’ worth of petroleum and petroleum products to foreign markets. Today’s action effectively
Very good piece "The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe" 2/2 https://t.co/eOgu6xEn7g
One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's global trade. Domestic demand growth doesn't spill over into demand for European -- other other -- goods anymore. Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export https://t.co/fkbc3D02qv
The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right thing for China's trade partners to ask for can be found here. Europe cares more about whether China is moving ever further away from external balance than about how China
China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve. And China has a problem with external balance (an unusually large surplus), which is a structural problem of the kind that exchange rate adjustment on its own would address. To
"Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances" Guess the PBOC agrees with Secretary Bessent -- who said something similar at Ashville 1/2 引用 @fbermingham：China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of scheduled trade