X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Reason people aren’t controlling the full stack is the capital intensity Hypers will and can underwire the power, shells, chips, etc Others like neos and managed inference provides can barely execute the IT before trying to move upstream This is a capital problem vs lack of 引用 @kellyjgreer：lot
I fully agree here but I think one thing that’s under appreciated is people talking about the duration mismatch Lot of forward credit for TAM penetration x steady state economics when in reality extremely early in usage and adoption That means compute demand going up but it 引用 @nicbstme：This is m
Brother, what will your ARR do That answers your capex question 引用 @firesidealpha：Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s “Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been
Citadel is impressive man, consistently putting up #s 引用 @nishantkumar07：We have some initial hedge fund returns for September. Looks like machines scored a win over humans. Traders faced a volatility month as inflation concerns pushed bond yields to multidecade highs and hit fixed-income wagers. h
One notable trend that goes against my priors is seeing a lot of long time veterans from the hypers move to Neo clouds That doesn’t mean it’s bulletproof or anything but people with many years and in senior positions of the companies with the most flexibility are moving to
Markets Weekly October 3, 2026 Bonds behave badly Le spread Anthropic IPO https://t.co/z4A7UCjuDI
One fun thing about reading old finance books is that they’ll talk about how shocking some number was when we’ve since blown past it. For example, here’s a book that came out on Tuesday: https://t.co/1xy8FDlqtf
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or https://t.co/6GY9Ud2Q
Adam Tooze's concept of a profit dollar works for sovereign investors too: "Mr Setser estimates that nearly all the new funds and banks are more exposed to America than their countries’ central banks are" 2/3 https://t.co/kuLDaYydUT
In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly. 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion article below, @martinwolf_ claims that the average maturity of US Treasury issuance decreased from 6.1 years in 2024 to 2.5 years in 2026. He should check his mat
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I chat about bond yields, the yield curve, and weak stock market breadth; and I sit down with the always-insightful Eric Liu from @vandaresearch, who discusses Vanda’s latest upgrade to their view
FYI: Some of the links to this morning's conversation on Yahoo Finance. https://t.co/x6VvRYRyAc https://t.co/JCcakw6t1G https://t.co/IUtlA0AtlF #economy #markets #jobs #federalreserve #employment
I very very very strongly disagree and think that AI adoption in the enterprise beyond coding is basically at the starting line 引用 @krishnanrohit：Everyone uses AI by now. Senior leaders are vibecoding apps. They've adopted claude. They're finding workflows to automate. Folks have their own claws. A
So the AK capital growth loop is the thing that makes this work. However it ignores physics limits on energy and materials and Baumols Cost disease. But perhaps most importantly it ignores the sources and constraints on capital due to cash flow timing deficits Minsky squeeze 引用 @firesidealpha：
A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion -- Basically, China's current trajectory, with sustained 10% growth in export volumes and a more modest but still pronounced increase in the surplus in manufactures https://t.co/jtfRvKoQCG 引用 @Balding
Bill Ackman’s post about inflation took me back to the late 1970s, when similar concerns were everywhere. What followed was stronger growth and falling inflation, helped by the PC and software revolution. We believe today’s innovation platforms could have an even greater impact. 引用 @ARKInvest：“It's
蠢货天天再谈加息影响股市。 我的暴论：你加到10%，股市还是创新高。 美国经济的动力不再是消费而是AI基建。现在利润搞到比挖金子还高，你加息怎么压制它？
最近总有人回我说存储不行，涨不过 cpu，我说实话真的挺无语的，事实的结果可能非常反直觉。mu 和 intc 目前距离新高都只有 16%，如果你觉得英特尔更猛，可结果两人的位置一摸一样。 也许你又会说，那 intc 从底部反弹的多啊？可事实是，intc 从 7 月 29 日反弹了 49%，美光则是
我五月底关闭订阅，预言科技股会大跌，我的预言准不准，当时通知订阅学员买入债券、BIL避险，准不准？我们的学员幸不幸福？ 引用 @cnfinancewatch：我看空六月以来一直 看空科技，预言龙头跌50%，杂毛跌两个50%， 只有在八月看多黄金（已经清仓）， 现在不悲观：老登新登同步砸盘，最后一跌就在眼前。刚刚588000破新低了。恐慌盘出来，最后一砸，挖坑就会完毕。目前大资金还有8000亿需要出掉。 可能机会就在这两天，大家订阅吧：
如何让民营企业家纳入体制管理，成为体制的支持者？ 这是最近十来年管理层非常成功的地方。其他，都很次要。 工商联——政协——人大…… 制度安排是非常有效的。
A股大跌四个月，我们都学员账户大涨四个月。 订阅跟踪检阅：https://t.co/0hbYvJoY65 引用 @cnfinancewatch：$### 收盘于历史新高。 祝福我的订阅者。订阅我，我就是财富密码，我们下周可能动员上杠杆： https://t.co/0hbYvJoY65
14亿中国人，仅有90-95万境外证券账户。2000-2400亿。 中信数据！ 惊掉下巴，这点儿鸡肋也要？
8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates? Because way too many think debt is the MAIN driver of higher yields, interest costs are the burden, and the solution is financial repression such as yield curve control. This would be disastrous. If yields are 引用 @biancoresearch：1
1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵 https://t.co/zBzpq4Mada
目前重点： （AI算力&数据中心）：IREN、CIFR、WULF、CORZ, NBIS, CRWV, SMCI, DELL （电源/电网/温控）：VRT、ETN、GEV、CEG, SMR, OKLO, VST
说个暴论： 分析国内经济和企业，多数人看不懂。 那些企业看起来是制造四轮盒子的，其实是制造特种的，拼起来就是特种。你看得出来？
$MBX（MBX Biosciences）Guggenheim由88.0升至150.0上调70.5%，距现价58.51空间156.4%；
三只股票 $MU：评分86：RSI14 59.3且MACD柱8.115金叉，支撑902.6压力1108.72，目标价上调至1596.52美元为重要加分。 $ORCL：评分78：RSI14 48.3且MACD柱-1.738死叉，支撑131.58压力170.7，内部人买入3483750美元与云订单积压支撑。 $AMZN：评分74：RSI14
港股只要买汇丰就行了。 其他不用碰！ https://t.co/lZ9u9moPFg