X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
NB: Recently learned that blowing a raspberry is Cockney rhyming slang. Raspberry is condensation Raspberry Tart, and tart rhymes with fart, which is what blowing a raspberry sounds like. 引用 @talmonsmith：Earl at BMO said a while ago we'll be hitting 6 on the 30yr sooner than later and i remember
final assembly of all the data center computers has shifted to Mexico and Taiwan as much as it has shifted to Vietnam ... https://t.co/mly2GqkidL
The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in effect fentanyl tariff, which didn't exclude electronics -- if even 30% of current computer imports came from China that would add $100b to the bilateral balance! https://t.co/Qb51fUvgyE 引用 @tradewart
The last thing an advisor needs is to explain to a client that they are facing a retroactive tax clawback in some product when the admin has already made it clear that it's in the cards for the most abusive versions of these products.
Recent rise in advisors asking me how to think about the various tax avoidance strategies that they are getting bombarded with every day. My answer is pretty simple - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
One of the funniest consequences of AI is exposing the fact that mathematicians consider math to be an aesthetic pursuit and a source of permanent unvetted sinecures rather than a set of problems to be solved 引用 @mathandcobb：The scale of this is staggering. But... Why? Why is OpenAI trying to so
I really enjoyed attending The Curve this past weekend. Good writeup here from Zvi about the event. 引用 @TheZvi：https://t.co/71njtKE2gQ
回到21倍咯，利率下降回到24倍算合理？现在不算贵，但性价比肯定不如7月底，8月底和9月中旬 这些只是指数，投个股就看个股，比如 $INTC，仍然便宜 https://t.co/PaY74DT8aG 引用 @lynynyyyyy：@TJ_Research 🍑总，请问下soxx从七月低点反弹了25%了，现在估值水平还是算中性水平吗 感谢回复。🫡
question for econ/finance: 1. what's the strongest case that AI is behind the increase in treasury rates? 2. what's the strongest case that AI is behind the rise in inflation?
I don't think Mr. Balding quite understands how the game is played -- the effort to negotiate a voluntary export restraint wasn't really aimed at China, but rather at maintaining unity in Europe. Šefčovič had to try ... 1/2 引用 @BaldingsWorld：I can't believe I am seeing so much shock that China e
I really think everyone over-complicates this. There’s a lot of spending right now, a decent chunk of which is related to AI. (all) Spending puts upward pressure on prices. To counteract upward price pressure, the Fed keeps rates high. Treasuries reflect Fed policy. 引用 @DKThomp：question for
Unfortunately, we are being blocked by certain oligarchs in order to maintain their monopolistic chokehold on the Indian people. You can guess who they are … This is a crime against the people of India! 引用 @cb_doge：India needs @Starlink 🇮🇳 • 11,256 of India’s listed villages still lacked 4G cov
Failures happen. But resilience at cloud scale is designed for the assumption that hardware will fail. The question isn't whether components fail. It's whether your architecture assumed they wouldn't. Read the blog by Mark Russinovich to learn more: https://t.co/s4IVVb1Rm4 https://t.co/BQXx83qoqk
Whatever it take for @Bot to deliver the best product experience for users 引用 @farzyness：Grok @bot will be insanely powerful if it’s completely model agnostic and the @SpaceXAI simply hyper-focuses on creating the greatest orchestrator AI of all time. That orchestrator AI will know what model is b
Starlink in India would enable high-speed, affordable Internet connectivity for those who can’t afford current prices or who don’t have a connection at all! 引用 @cb_doge：ELON MUSK: “We’d love to be operating Starlink in India. That would be great.” It’s been nearly four years since Starlink applied
Increasingly getting more model diversity over time in terms of share of spend across incumbent lab models (e.g., OAI + Ant) + new competitors, while spend aggregates mostly to closed models. Tokens increasingly weighting towards open. As a reminder, Openrouter, Ramp, etc. are https://t.co/NztSFl
Guess we’ll see how open GPU financing markets remain with how this deal does PIMCO apparently interested 引用 @business：The AI arms race is running on debt. SpaceX is looking to borrow $40 billion for Nvidia chips, while Ray Dalio warns the boom is a “classic bubble” near its breaking point: Evenin
And everyone keeps saying someone else should hold the backstop risk 引用 @johnarnold：There's hope that the data center boom can help jumpstart nuclear, and it has with restarts and uprates of existing plants. The challenge for new builds, both for current and next-gen tech, is that no one can promis
Shanu Mathew转述，谷歌目标是每六个月将有效 token 服务能力翻倍，而非仅提升原始 GW、FLOPs 等指标。引用内容称，谷歌 AI 基础设施首席技术专家 Amin Vahdat 在 Transition-AI 2026 活动中谈到算力容量每六个月翻倍；原帖还提及 Training Data podcast 和“Training → Inference cascade”。
Also, this is extremely notable because Google has arguably taken one of the most flexible and 'all the above' options approach (they literally acquired a BTM developer that blends renewables + simple cycle gas for firming) and he is straight up telling you GRID PREFERENCE + BTM https://t.co/FVD36y0
Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance? 引用 @SantiagoAuFund：Higher rates inject more money into the economy, that money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
Further to yesterday's chart of the US yield curve, this one from The Wall Street Journal details the one-month round trip in market expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Is a "hall of mirrors" feedback loop at play here, or is this simply correlation? #economy #markets https://t.co/CyGMp09vjn
A big "thank you" to Wilfred Frost for the interesting conversation on the UK economy. #economy #uk #markets @WilfredFrost @SkyNews https://t.co/Owlm6Byc3X
Context to the escalating selloff in French bonds: more policy uncertainty lowers the actual debt threshold at which defaults become a more likely occurrence, according to this paper. 引用 @GonHuertas：When public debt grows, default risk can jump suddenly. Our new paper with @ojblanchard1 and @pmbru
Taiwan Op-Ed: Elon Musk would not be a good partner for TSMC because he is pro-China for business reasons and “extremely unfriendly to Taiwan”, one media says, adding that if TSMC worked on TeraFab, other clients would likely be unhappy because they don’t have joint venture fabs
These have all already showed up in the FCC database as well.
Vitol CEO said the oil market has gone through three distinctive phases, at this overlapping each other: 1) a crude crisis; 2) followed by a refined product crisis; and now 3) a shipping crisis. On the later, my @Opinion column from September 🚢⤵️https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？ 这是基本面真的比想象中强，还是市场已经对风险麻木？ https://t.co/F09KKLDSHg 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade -- 4/ https://t.co/xhaeFM37ig
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds https://t.co/nnaySWiPHC
Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an “act of treason” a day after the central banker, Emmanuel Moulin, warned that the country risked being "strangled by interest rates" if it didn't address its public finances. 引用 @JLMelenchon：Le banqui
作者称，黄仁勋认为MRVL未来达到万亿美元市值的概率较高。引用内容称，MRVL宣布与谷歌于7月29日达成芯片产品开发协议，涵盖AI、存储和网络芯片领域，协议潜在总值为1200亿美元；MRVL还向谷歌发行最多可购买5897万股股票的认股权证，行权价格为每股206.58美元。协议签署后的第一年内，每季度将有136.0867万份认股权证股份归属。
今天Lite创了新高，上周末聊Cohr会有补涨、昨天聊AAOI的ATM增发完成也会有一波行情。光互连板块这一波引领半导体产业链的大逻辑还是八月这篇文推文聊的逻辑，核心是数据中心建设的滞后效应的体现： CapEx公告 → 土建/电力（2025）→ 服务器部署（2026）→ 引用 @qinbafrank：从数据中心建设节奏说说为什么光互联现在进入了业绩爆发期？最早是7月下旬提到光互联业绩兑现空间也很好。8月4号还详细写了一篇看好光互连的逻辑、一周过去多光好像成为了共识。除了之之前聊到的逻辑，再从数据中心建设节奏的角度聊聊： 1、云厂商CapEx节奏与数据中心建设时间线
Welp. I'm short this thing for the next two months or so. https://t.co/ouflaEgKIc
华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域 引用 @bobby79446955：@TJ_Research 怎么看鼠疫
$GOOG 收购 $CEG，不是在卖飞就是在卖飞的路上，等着 $VST 弥补我的损失！ 能源 = 电 = 数据中心 = TOKEN = 智力 = 营收
To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics, conventional macroeconomics is currently winning. The August goods and services deficit was bigger than any deficit apart from those deficits associated with tariff front running 1/ https://t.co/MPrPSGOSh
The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and how quickly. In today's post, the authors trace tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices for U.S. consumer goods. https://t.co/qKgJSPqQKq
债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又要喊降BETA了🤣🤣🤣一年一个轮回
Excellent roundtable conversation alongside @Erica_Downs_ on China’s Hormuz response (Beijing Swing!) and what it has revealed to us about China’s vastly underappreciated [discretionary] oil market influence. Huge thanks to @reziemba for the invitation and to @CNASdc for hosting