华泰证券A股策略指出，宽基ETF放量为低位指数提供托底，但历史上此类放量更可能是左侧信号，建议防守为主，并在三季报中寻找盈利环比加速的板块。上周A股先跌后稳、整体缩量，AI硬件领跌。AI链回调是全球现象，AI业绩弹性与融资可持续性受质疑；避险情绪仍强，食饮、银行逆势收涨。三季报披露尚早，但市场对单季盈利环比加速的个股定价偏积极，可作为短期交易线索。配置上，保持低波红利等防御底仓；AI链关注PCB环节及光器件、半导体设备中的个股，AI链外关注通用及专用设备、风电与电网设备、航运、玻纤化纤、医疗服务等板块。
华泰证券认为，地产股开始迈向“中期逻辑”，市场普遍将8·28新政视为供给端利空，而华泰证券认为供给收缩与结构性“供平过租”的形成正在为更大范围的房价企稳创造条件。市场对8·28政策反应已相对充分，未来细则影响将逐步弱化。华泰证券认为2027年全国房地产市场成交量有望上新台阶、更多城市房价筑底，适应新模式的房企将迎来新周期。
华泰证券表示，上周美国9月CPI、PPI双双超预期，推动10月加息概率上升，美债长端收益率盘中触及二十四年来新高。随后AI产业链受融资压力与增长担忧影响回撤，美债利率从高点回落，印度和恒生指数相对收益跑赢，传统行业小幅修复。
华泰证券研报称，2026年第三季度交运板块盈利或分化，航运和电商快递盈利或占优，航空盈利同比或明显下滑，公路盈利小幅承压。航运运价同环比上行；电商快递件量稳健、价格同比涨幅扩大，“反内卷”推动量价改善向利润增长传导。
中信建投研报下调2026年国内大储新增装机预测至230~250GWh，同比增长约21%~32%，并预计2027年国内储能仍有增长动力和潜力。研报称，2026年以来大储项目实际落地不及预期，峰谷价差收窄、系统运行费上涨、容量电价落地偏慢、碳酸锂涨价及并网审批延迟影响项目经济性；华北、东北、华南需求增长和算力协同等新场景被列为2027年增长因素。
中金指出，当前投资预期尚不至于对全球科技行业景气度构成全面压力。未来两年供给环境相对有利，中国半导体设备和电网设备的资本回报与景气度相对受益，全球数字芯片设计面临较大考验。中国和美国光模块、PCB可能阶段性受益，美国有色金属可能阶段性承压。
国金证券认为，A股当下最差的环境已过去，但市场尚不具备V型反弹基础，非AI领域可适当下注。国金证券建议关注黄金配置机会、受全球能源补库需求支撑的煤炭、石油和油运，以及可能随利率下行而修复的出口出海板块。
中信建投称，特斯拉当地时间10月15日晚在美国得州展示重新设计的第二代Roadster，搭载与SpaceX联合开发、代号A71的冷气推进系统。中信建投看好商业航天和低空经济板块的主题性投资机会，关注卫星、火箭、无人机/eVTOL制造等细分环节。
中信建投认为，科技板块短期或迎来超跌后的技术性反弹，但这不代表趋势反转，中期仍将以震荡筑底为主。板块调整幅度和速度已达历史级别，三季度业绩增速普遍较好；资金筹码、海外加息与地缘政治仍构成压制。行业配置关注银行、非银、公用事业、煤炭、石油、油运、基础化工、生猪养殖及AI产业链。
中信建投研报称，特斯拉于当地时间10月15日晚在美国得州展示重新设计的第二代Roadster，搭载与SpaceX联合开发、代号A71的冷气推进系统。研报看好商业航天和低空经济板块的主题性投资机会，关注卫星制造、火箭制造、地面设备、运营服务，以及无人机/eVTOL制造、轻量化材料和空管等细分环节。
国金证券认为，A股当下最差的环境至少已过去，风险期阶段性度过，但市场尚不具备V型反弹基础。该机构推荐配置黄金，以及受全球能源补库需求支撑的煤炭、石油、油运；若未来利率继续下行，出口出海板块或迎来修复，涉及白电、纺织制造、商用车和家居。
国金证券A股策略认为，A股最差的环境至少暂时已经过去，市场尚不具备V型反弹基础，但风险期已阶段性度过。策略推荐关注黄金、煤炭、石油、油运，以及白电、纺织制造、商用车和家居等出口出海板块。
中信建投下调2026年国内大储新增装机预期至230~250GWh，同比增长约21%~32%。该机构认为，2026年以来项目实际落地不及预期，主因西北峰谷价差收窄；展望2027年，碳酸锂降价、华北、东北、华南需求增长及算力协同等新场景预计将带动国内储能增长。
中金指出，当前投资预期尚未给全球科技行业景气度带来全面压力。未来两年供给环境相对有利，中国半导体设备和电网设备的资本回报与景气度相对受益，全球数字芯片设计面临较大考验。中国和美国光模块、PCB可能阶段性受益，美国有色金属可能阶段性承压。
华泰证券认为，供给收缩与结构性“供平过租”正在为更大范围的房价企稳创造条件，地产股开始迈向“中期逻辑”。市场对8·28政策的反应已相对充分，未来细则影响将逐步弱化。华泰证券预计2027年全国房地产市场成交量有望上新台阶，更多城市房价筑底，适应新模式的房企将迎来新周期。
华泰证券预计，2026年第三季度交运板块盈利分化，航运和电商快递或凭借运价、件量及价格改善释放盈利弹性。航空盈利同比或明显下滑，公路盈利小幅承压；高铁竞争优势突出，机场表现分化，物流细分龙头仍有增长亮点。
Wrote this 2.5 years ago. Think it's still mostly right. I hope so. FWIW my personal usage of code peaked around 2017 when I first became deeply informed about Machine Learning and AI. But imagining and adapting to the evolving forest has never required expertise in the trees 引用 @dampedspring：The
Probably better to see some noticeable productivity acceleration on a macro level before pitching 5x the growth rate ever seen in the history of man in just 3yrs. https://t.co/GaR70UEw0q https://t.co/OvGP0bDwEE 引用 @scaling01：Surveyed Anthropic staff's answers imply 17.1% GDP growth in 2030 https://
👀 Data Authority, you say? Cannot wait for the reconciliation fun! **note to Tehran and CENTCOM (wink, wink): simple is best, just give us a static-URL-hosted CSV. Leave the rest to us. 引用 @mb_ghalibaf：The Persian Gulf Data Authority is coming. To governments, funds, and firms in the region: yo
Excellent book 引用 @gbrew24：Good time to crack this one back open. https://t.co/eslPIdGL3L
A guy on the All In podcast is mad about Anthropic 引用 @dnapway：Ben Horowitz says Anthropic is one of the most negligent companies he’s ever seen on security "The irony on these things is wild. Anthropic is one of the most negligent companies that we've ever seen in terms of their own security." "
This chart is from The Economist's article on "the fast-growing stock of AI-related debt." Without a matching rise in loanable funds, persistent rate pressure will likely crowd out rate-sensitive, non-tech sectors. #economy #markets #bonds #yields @TheEconomist https://t.co/zbJNors0XI
This is the only theory that makes sense me why VCs whine about Anthropic non stop. Like they feel embarrassed by them somehow. 引用 @MattZeitlin：They’ll never forgive a bunch of grad student libs for making a company more valuable than almost anything they’ve ever funded and that all their portfolio
Alright real talk. What’s the deal with https://t.co/Jl9y6lebcB. I’ve probably been seeing their ads (in airports, on taxis) for almost 20 years. Never once heard any discourse or mention of them irl. Who or what is their market?
The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues. 引用 @PaulAnleitner：“We become what we behold.” -William Blake
True, even SpaceX’s competitor’s FUTURE plans are behind Starship 🤣🤣 引用 @TSLAFanMtl：Ok so yeah... $SPCX has no competition. None. And that's today, before Starship becomes their mainstream rocket. Starship widens the moat *considerably* more. The competition is so far behind, they may as well be
Power On: Apple’s new HomeView shows the undeniable potential of a higher-end version with a robotic arm. https://t.co/NVMPS3cJOo
Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster. That may help the iPhone 18 Pro. More in Power On: https://t.co/qX4Wp8R6sc
This is important to crystallize. The underlying demand trend is incredibly strong and required. Whether that means shaky business models, bad deals, expensive financing, or scarcity pricing pencils is another debate altogether. Someone will be there to pick up the pieces. But 引用 @BenBajarin：All
JPM’s chart puts global AI compute demand at ~450 GW in 2030 and ~530 GW in 2031. Translating that into capital and revenue shows aggressive these assumptions seem to be. At an illustrative $50B per fully equipped GW (low-end by the way as costs are moving up), supplying 530 GW 引用 @pequityresearch
The problem with being too bearish here is the bears are way more retarded than the bulls 😔 Bulls are annoyingly hyperbolic/extrapolative but at least they understand the technology
发文者表示，若 Josh 引述的数据属实，他大体认同其判断：按 YE26 口径，约 1000 亿美元收入对应约 5 GW 算力，其中仅约 1.25 GW 服务付费客户。按付费服务算，每 GW 收入约 800 亿美元，按整体混合口径约 200 亿美元；引用内容称，Anthropic 85% 的毛利率和超过 40% 的算力利润率意味着 70%—75% 的算力用于研发。
Can someone tell me how a company that is targeting the biggest IPO in history at over $2 Trillion can have it's bonds rated a "junk"? And if bond investors don't even view this as Investment Grade worthy, why should equity investors? https://t.co/LS7XPw12Rr
for all the folks that said ignore ARR, focus on revenues. we do realize that the trailing and go-forward revenues are lower than the run-rate revenue which makes all the comparisons to ROI and otherwise... worse (right now) over time ARR and revenue should converge (unless it's
based. now this is the type of respectful pushback & fact-based discourse we need. no horse in the race but rooted in fundamentals and facts. presenting the sources. Rittenhouse doing a lot to raise the level of discourse on this topic here and elsewhere on this site. 引用 @RHouseResearch：@daniel_k
Thought it'd be helpful to frame this in economic output terms relative to history: Anthropic staff's survey answers imply US real GDP growth of ~18.6% in the 12 months to January 2030 (17.1% in the model's log terms). In the BEA annual record back to 1929, comparable growth https://t.co/j1RJcEaOKC
Fair distinction on the terminology and it's not fair for me to blend them. My broader point is that the investment case still assumes today’s revenue persists and grows so you're still making the same implicit bet. In reality, subscribers can churn, API customers can reduce 引用 @ramez：@ShanuMat
华泰证券研报指出，往前看，美伊冲突仍未解决，全球原油炼化能力难以明显改善，全球柴油供需缺口短期较难缓解，柴油价格或仍将位于高位，预计将继续温和推高美国通胀。
美国人工智能投资潮引发三大风险 【美国人工智能投资潮引发三大风险】近年来，美国人工智能投资热潮持续升温，巨额资本开支在推动技术竞逐的同时，也给金融市场和实体经济带来风险。从企业融资需求激增、长期利率承压，到股债市场波动相互传导，再到融资成本上升影响住房和企业投资，美国人工智能“投资潮”给市场带来的冲击已经远远超过科技行业，正向更广领域扩散。
华泰证券研报指出，美伊冲突仍未解决，全球原油炼化能力难以明显改善，柴油供需缺口短期较难缓解。研报预计，柴油价格或仍处高位，并继续温和推高美国通胀。