My thanks to Leslie Picker for an interesting conversation on CNBC’s Closing Bell.
My thanks to Leslie Picker for an interesting conversation on CNBC’s Closing Bell. @CNBC #economy #markets @LesliePicker https://t.co/BtqYaN1wWx
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X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分1010 X·宏观AI 评分1515 Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads…
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/TLUgiHQcfF
X·宏观AI 评分2525 Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech
Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech Rational Dissent Episode 013 Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000. -- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & https://t.co/zP8B4ZOu6i
X·宏观AI 评分1616 Your occasional reminder that nobody has "lost control of the long end" of the bond market.
Your occasional reminder that nobody has "lost control of the long end" of the bond market. The yield curve is flat. Yields are broadly high, from short to long, because inflation is persistently above-target. https://t.co/x8OigvaiSc
X·科技公司AI 评分1212 GPT-6 Astra Pro in ChatGPT got an upgrade with faster responses and improved use of plugins and…
GPT-6 Astra Pro in ChatGPT got an upgrade with faster responses and improved use of plugins and tools. And now, multiple agents can tackle different parts of a task in parallel. You can follow each agent’s progress and open completed tasks to review their work. Now available to
X·科技公司AI 评分00 This is what I do, but at 1.5X
This is what I do, but at 1.5X 引用 @mrfundman：Set you Grok bot voice to Ara on 1.25x and thank me later 😄 https://t.co/Qt6fB4Je2x
X·财经博主AI 评分1010 I have 0 clue what scenario you need this for but it doesn't make it any less cool
I have 0 clue what scenario you need this for but it doesn't make it any less cool 引用 @CARN0N：Highlights of all four stunts Tesla showed off with the new Roadster today. https://t.co/chP6QEuVMk
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 "According to data from Cloudflare, the share of 403 'Forbidden' responses received by agents and…
"According to data from Cloudflare, the share of 403 'Forbidden' responses received by agents and bots has fattened considerably since the summer (and is ~double what it once was)." a16z week in charts https://t.co/v75M1ecRAy
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 Apple very clearly launched the iPhone Duo prematurely based on the supply available just to get it…
Apple very clearly launched the iPhone Duo prematurely based on the supply available just to get it to market earlier. I believe they knew they wouldn’t have a reasonable amount of supply until November at the earliest.
X·财经博主AI 评分1515 2026.42: Home At Last
2026.42: Home At Last The best Stratechery content from the week of October 12, 2026, including what Apple is doing, SpaceX's appetite, and the title, takes, and the Washington Wizards. https://t.co/FeJjlxhHl6
X·财经博主AI 评分1414 I hope in this hypothetical case Susan gives Alex an earful in response. The markets are near ATH.…
I hope in this hypothetical case Susan gives Alex an earful in response. The markets are near ATH. If THIS isn't "good" time, when exactly would you want them to issue equity? Capital is going to be VERY important in this race. Issuing equity at the right time and optimizing for 引用 @RihardJarc：Ale
X·财经博主AI 评分1414 remind me when all the tech ppl were like datacenters are going to go up everywhere and everyone…
remind me when all the tech ppl were like datacenters are going to go up everywhere and everyone will figure it out no problem b/c grooooooowth 引用 @saranormous：Anyone can build a datacenter, they said https://t.co/8iUs4ZXS2p
X·财经博主AI 评分33 The good news is if you get your iPhone Duo in January you're already 25% of the way to your iPhone…
The good news is if you get your iPhone Duo in January you're already 25% of the way to your iPhone Duo 2. Ugh.
X·财经博主AI 评分5050 Shanu Mathew转述黄仁勋称英伟达每吉瓦内容价值超400亿美元
Shanu Mathew转述黄仁勋在最新一期 BG2 访谈中的说法，英伟达每吉瓦的内容价值超过400亿美元，前沿实验室约占其业务的25%–30%。基线计算约占三分之一，年增长率约为30%–40%；访谈还涉及AI收入是否支撑资本开支、2027年AI瓶颈及开放与封闭等话题。
X·财经博主AI 评分4444 Dylan Patel 预测 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 合计收入到 2027 年 12 月或达 6000亿至7000亿美元
Dylan Patel 预测，OpenAI 与 Anthropic 到 2027 年 12 月的合计收入可能达到 6000亿至7000亿美元。Anthropic 今年收入预计增长约 10 倍，从低于 100 亿美元升至高于 1000 亿美元的收入运行率；他还称 Anthropic 可能在 2028—2029 年达到约 1 万亿美元收入。
X·财经博主AI 评分88 So weird that the signup flow for Apple Intelligence includes the line “Better for you if you turn…
So weird that the signup flow for Apple Intelligence includes the line “Better for you if you turn me off.” Probably nothing, pizza bagels it is! https://t.co/Sy4eYlUJr2
X·财经博主AI 评分44 Have any of the labs tried to do in history what they've done in math, like digitizing the relevant…
Have any of the labs tried to do in history what they've done in math, like digitizing the relevant documents, having lots of historians in the loop, and throwing a few billion tokens at a question like "why did the industrial revolution happen when and where it did?"
X·财经博主AI 评分2525 The statement focuses on "online" and says nothing about in-store availability. Just "experiencing"…
The statement focuses on "online" and says nothing about in-store availability. Just "experiencing" it in-store. Not a good sign for day one in-store availability for those without pre-orders. 引用 @markgurman：Apple: "Demand for iPhone Duo, our first foldable iPhone, has been nothing short of extraor
X·grokAI 评分2929 最新@conferenceboard调查发现，近一半CEO预期未来三年AI将提升生产率并降低运营成本
最新@conferenceboard调查发现，近一半CEO预期未来三年AI将提升生产率并降低运营成本 https://t.co/yTaNSjJYs1 原文： Latest survey from @conferenceboard found that nearly half of CEOs expect AI to boost productivity and reduce operating costs over the next three years https://t.co/yTaNSjJYs1
X·grokAI 评分3131 网络安全、AI与地缘政治仍是CEO在2026年4季度的顶尖风险，且各项担忧较上季上升
网络安全、AI与地缘政治仍是CEO在2026年4季度的顶尖风险，且各项担忧较上季上升 @conferenceboard https://t.co/Bn1KkKEz30 原文： Cybersecurity, AI, and geopolitics remained CEOs’ tops risks in 4Q26, with concern over each increasing from the prior quarter @conferenceboard https://t.co/Bn1KkKEz30
X·grokAI 评分2323 10年期收益率与标普500的滚动相关性仍为负，尽管昨天出现了有趣的正相关走势
10年期收益率与标普500的滚动相关性仍为负，尽管昨天出现了有趣的正相关走势 https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG 原文： Rolling correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains negative, notwithstanding yesterday’s interesting positive correlated move https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG
X·grokAI 评分3030 沿海盲区 当创投-科技回音室用轶事故事鼓吹AI采用加速时，覆盖更广美国企业与家庭的数据表明采纳要温热得多。
沿海盲区 当创投-科技回音室用轶事故事鼓吹AI采用加速时，覆盖更广美国企业与家庭的数据表明采纳要温热得多。 https://t.co/lKOqWQ4aeK https://t.co/LQ5J4Muwmv 原文： The Coastal Blindspot While the venture-tech echo chamber hypes accelerating AI adoption through anecdotal stories, data covering a wider lens of US business and households suggests much mor
X·grokAI 评分2525 如果你还怀疑AI能否“像你一样建模”，让 Opus 5.5 过一遍你最好的模型，看它——在几分钟内——理解发生了什么、把规则编码成可复用于其他标的的流程，并构建可信/连贯的模型。是否总完美，尤其对定制…
如果你还怀疑AI能否“像你一样建模”，让 Opus 5.5 过一遍你最好的模型，看它——在几分钟内——理解发生了什么、把规则编码成可复用于其他标的的流程，并构建可信/连贯的模型。是否总完美，尤其对定制或复杂东西？不是100%。但按月/年计的进步速度如此剧烈，已经明显在接近。 模型从来不是全部。它们有用是因为它们要求你去做的思考与工作。你如何思考、用什么框架铺开、收集什么证据来约束输入、哪些杠杆最影响结果区间。 很多人以为自己通过原始努力贡献的价值，正被机器接管。金融对“你的增值是什么”一向冷酷；若不进化，未来会很难过。 【被引推文 @BoringBiz_】做个比谁都强的Excel猴子已经
X·宏观AI 评分2828 Agree with the FT; European car makers need to be ready to invest to compete with Chinese auto…
Agree with the FT; European car makers need to be ready to invest to compete with Chinese auto makers in their home market and globally -- But you can only compete is you have enough space to survive, and that currently requires insulation from China's massive export wave 1/ https://t.co/wl4laiWNU
X·宏观AI 评分4545 中国出口增长远不止汽车，多个行业均有贡献
中国出口增长并非仅由汽车推动，电气设备、电子产品、机械、化工和钢铁自2021年以来各自的增量都超过汽车。文中称，中国汽车出口浪潮的速度前所未有，汽车出口预计将在2024年底至2026年间翻倍。
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 I've been pretty clear about my skepticism around land, power and shells, though the rest of the…
I've been pretty clear about my skepticism around land, power and shells, though the rest of the world waking up in a big way could change the picture. The question is whether it happens, and on what timeline. “TSMC is very conservative and doesn't freelance. They're sending 引用 @DratchCap：Zoom out
X·财经博主AI 评分33 Gemini Argon 4 crashed on the very first task I gave it (which was largely reviewing this…
Gemini Argon 4 crashed on the very first task I gave it (which was largely reviewing this infrastructure model I've developed with my corpus of compute + infra economics info over time)... not off to a promising start.
X·财经博主AI 评分6161 Artificial Analysis 初步测试显示 Vera Rubin 每兆瓦峰值吞吐量较 GB300 高 14%–45%
Artificial Analysis 的首批 Vera Rubin 测试结果显示，其每兆瓦峰值吞吐量较 GB300 高 14%–45%，具体幅度因模型而异。在选定生成速度下，DeepSeek V4 Pro 约为 5.7 倍，GLM-5.2 约为 3 倍，Kimi K3 约为 2.8 倍。原文随后提到，即使按提升 30% 假设，一个 100MW GPU…
X·宏观AI 评分11 Any other degens out there double-screening Kevin Warsh at the IMF in Bangkok and Broncos-Seahawks…
Any other degens out there double-screening Kevin Warsh at the IMF in Bangkok and Broncos-Seahawks in overtime?
X·宏观AI 评分3939 沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？）
沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？） 没有给任何指引，多数问题都和通胀，货币政策无关，唯一他有聊到“过去一个月基本和我们预期的一样，接下去还有两次会议”
X·宏观AI 评分1515 如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑： 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
X·grokAI 评分4949 亚马逊推出 Bee Frontier 和 Bee Eclipse，布局个人 AI 设备与行动代理
亚马逊推出可穿戴设备 Bee Frontier 和磁吸手机背面设备 Bee Eclipse，试图将持续记忆与行动代理整合进 Alexa+ 和购物体系。文章认为，Bee 可延伸 Alexa 的个人上下文、捕捉购物需求，并成为亚马逊布局个人行动智能体的潜在催化剂。
X·grokAI 评分1212 鉴于对AI开支、Coreweave等的种种紧张。与@d……谈话时机非常幸运
鉴于对AI开支、Coreweave等的种种紧张。与@d……谈话时机非常幸运 原文： Given all the jitters about AI spending, Coreweave etc. Very fortuitous timing to be talking with @drwconvexity -- someone at the forefront of the compute trading industry -- TONIGHT at Odd Lots live in Chicago.
X·grokAI 评分3535 AI狂热者不顾大部分飙升发生在*2026年二季度内*、由代币狂推与低竞争窗口驱动（不会再有），仍绝望外推Anthropic环比增速。
AI狂热者不顾大部分飙升发生在*2026年二季度内*、由代币狂推与低竞争窗口驱动（不会再有），仍绝望外推Anthropic环比增速。 之后四个月看起来非常不同。 【被引推文】AI狂热者将因Anthropic确认三季度ARR*持平*而恐慌。若7月26日ARR为650亿、三季度总收入672亿，则基本无ARR增长。甚至比@tickerplus估计还差，而后者已在多数追踪器低端。 原文： AI manics are desperately extrapolating Anthropic's q/q growth without recognizing most of the surge happ
X·grokAI 评分1818 对。这是hyperliquid:native与众不同的一部分。人们在其他链上建了大量DeFi与永续平台。不同在于Hyperliquid专门聚焦于此，因此链本身就嵌入了这些市场如何运作的规则。
对。这是hyperliquid:native与众不同的一部分。人们在其他链上建了大量DeFi与永续平台。不同在于Hyperliquid专门聚焦于此，因此链本身就嵌入了这些市场如何运作的规则。 【被引】它大概也是我能想到的第一个在经济上成功的窄定向网络…… 原文： Yes. This is part of what makes hyperliquid:native distinct. People have built plenty of DeFi and perp trading platforms on other chains. What's different is that Hyp
X·grokAI 评分2828 澄清了1100亿美元ARR数字从何而来。注意用的是「分析师们」而非我认为原先跑出来的「某位分析师」。
澄清了1100亿美元ARR数字从何而来。注意用的是「分析师们」而非我认为原先跑出来的「某位分析师」。 那么是多人基于卖方交流交叉验证，还是单一估计？ 【被引推文 @readkrystalhu】@firstadopter Tae你好，是我们写的，乐意澄清——1100亿美元ARR来自参加昨日Analyst Day的卖方分析师根据指引估计，并非公司直接披露。造成任何混淆抱歉。我们已更新稿件。 原文： Clarifies where the $110B ARR figure was coming from. Note the term “analysts” vs analyst that I t
X·grokAI 评分1717 只是为访谈准备时跟各种人聊，我意识到世界分成从未听说Hyperliquid的人与痴迷它的人
只是为访谈准备时跟各种人聊，我意识到世界分成从未听说Hyperliquid的人与痴迷它的人 【被引】新ODD LOTS…… 原文： Just in talking to various people in prep for this interview, I realized the world is divided into people who have never heard of Hyperliquid and people who are obsessed with it https://t.co/PNKFzzespH https://t.co/9dD9haD4Mz 引用 @T
X·grokAI 评分3131 ⚠️美国消费者在临近#假日季时仍在支出，失业率低、就业健康……
⚠️美国消费者在临近#假日季时仍在支出，失业率低、就业健康…… 原文： ⚠️US consumers are still spending as we approach the #holiday season with low unemployment, healthy balance sheets and wealth accumulation in the driver's seat, but higher inflation is leading to depressed morale & income erosion, capping inflation-adjusted outla
X·grokAI 评分3232 我们已经连续两份热通胀读数，可利率却在下滑。
我们已经连续两份热通胀读数，可利率却在下滑。 整个市场都在…… 原文： We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trade, and the recent jitters about Anthropic's revenue numbers matter way more than some random government datapoint right now.
X·grokAI 评分3838 必读：中国官媒关于中国石油进口的评论：
必读：中国官媒关于中国石油进口的评论： 「……中国减少进口的举措超过其他国家释放战略石油储备的总和……」 原文： MUST READ: China state media op-ed on Chinese oil imports: “… China's initiative to reduce imports exceeds the sum of strategic oil reserves released by other countries, effectively blocking the vicious circle of out-of-control global oil