X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Tbh idk how this episode came about. David told us he’s an Odd Lots listener. And I’m always down to talk with a fellow musician. https://t.co/kfDSS4U2zQ 引用 @mean_field_zane：@TheStalwart @tracyalloway How’d you pull this off.
Circle首席商务官Kash Razzaghi撰文阐述USDC的“飞轮”经济模型：大部分收益与伙伴共享以推动采用，Circle将剩余部分再投资于基础设施、合规与扩展能力。2026 年上半年，USDC 链上结算额超过 36。
Yeah 引用 @strodav：@cb_doge BS. His politics are not dark and people who get inflamed are idiots. IMHO, the best way to describe his politics is common sense. Elon single-handedly saved the first amendment in America and he started the process that is identifying at least 1/2 $trillion /year in was
Since fate maximizes for ironic entertainment, it was inevitable that the “Roadster” would be a flying car
True 引用 @TimSweeneyEpic：The games we've long wanted, which didn't exist because they'd cost several times more to make than they'd earn back, will soon become possible. As will the games developers wanted to build, but couldn't with the resources available. It'll be a new golden age of gaming.
约6%的长期预算赤字，再加上到期债务以更高利率再融资，这笔账是这样算的： #经济 #市场 #债务 #收益率 https://t.co/PhUJwQvf37 原文： The math of a protracted budget deficit of around 6% PLUS the refinancing of maturing debt at higher rates: #economy #markets #debt #yields https://t.co/PhUJwQvf37
过去一周市场出现了逆流：尽管通胀数据偏热，债券收益率仍然下降；与此同时，随着科技股遭抛售、轮动加速，股市出现剧烈波动和分化。 与此同时，从油价到地缘经济紧张，更广泛的地缘经济压力依然存在。 随着我们进入经济数据和企业财报密集的一周，“经济韧性”这一主题面临一次重要的实证检验。 详情请通过以下任一链接阅读我关于全球经济和市场的周报： https://t.co/Ak7dVy7Lnn https://t.co/eKnKFvHluE 原文： This past week brought market counter-currents: bond yields fell despite hotter
市场追逐算力短缺，推动资本承诺加速，但竞争和商品化压缩产品利润率，利率与地缘政治冲击也可能增加融资难度。投入依据是当下的稀缺经济学，回报却取决于多年后的现金流；算力和基础设施可能结构性供给不足，建设融资的资本复杂性也可能过度扩张。
拉长时间（退后一步看市场），别踏空（永远待在场内），跌10%会慌的话现在就卖了（跌了都能睡得着的仓位），久期匹配（标的于风险是否匹配），买的是公司不是彩票（关注公司基本面），每次市场下跌我跌得都比市场要多（接受回调，下跌是市场的一部分） 引用 @huxlab：彼得·林奇掌管麦哲伦基金13年，年化收益率高达29.2%。 但在这13年里，标普500发生过9次跌幅超10%的大跌。 每次大跌，林奇跌得都比市场更惨。 面对净值腰斩式的暴跌，他只留下一句话： “在股票市场，最重要的器官不是大脑，而是胃。”
00年科技泡沫到底是市场先知，还是因为基本面出了问题？ 红色前瞻EPS，蓝色指数价格，白色前瞻P/E 虽然指数价格的绝对高点时2000年3月份，但很明显，下跌的起点是前瞻EPS开始下修，2000年8月底。 https://t.co/zQot3NNxNB
社媒真的太多关于新云融资的FUD了。 DDTL4.0，COREWEAVE最新的融资，成本SOFR+2.25%，按现在的联邦利率就是6.13% META 2032年到期的债务YIELD是5.82%
As this mix of charts from CNBC and Bloomberg illustrates, one of the few areas of economic and financial relief this past week came from lower government bond yields. More to follow in my weekly look at global economy and markets. #economy #markets #stocks #bonds #oil #gold https://t.co/3bG9pFMRc
An illustration below from the Wall Street Journal of the cause and effect of the ongoing rotation trade in the US stock market. (Please see my post from yesterday about what I call the (1-x) qualification to this rotation trade.) #economy #markets #investors #investing #tech https://t.co/ukvVuRskYa
OG Roadster 引用 @TrungTPhan：Elon showing Jay Leno the first production unit Tesla Roadster in 2008. Leno amazed by battery pack with 6,831 lithium-ion cells and gives this take on his first test drive: “The good thing with electricity is that you get full torque from 0 RPM. In a gas car, you have
今年虽然市场上涨，但是高难度。 引用 @hochnnnn：@xixixi19888 @TJ_Research 唉，经过 7 月那一波我感觉已经心力交瘁了。本来想着事情几乎能够过去，没想到又重演了一次同样的剧本。钱没赚到，身体和心理确实累到了，以后还是只买指数算了。指数最近稳的不行，但不同板块基本都经历了地狱
美联储主席沃什没有释放可能加息的信号，市场定价加息概率为14%。结合近期美联储关键决策者的讲话，作者认为10月FOMC会议可能“鹰派按兵不动”。
华尔街与旧金山科技圈对 AI 产能是否过剩存在分歧，科技圈人士认为，考虑过度建设的可能性就意味着不够相信 AI。未来几个月，若 AI 采用加速或总体生产率证据显现，AI 交易可能大幅上涨；若采用速度或前沿实验室经济性令人失望，也存在下行风险。越来越多人预期未来 18 个月内重演互联网泡沫式崩盘。
Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance, markets have interpreted his remarks at the IMF meetings in Thailand as dovish when it comes to an October rate action.
美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 表示，AI 将通过改善预测从根本上改变货币政策的实施。他说，未来不久，分析通胀趋势时就不必再用老式模型“折磨”数据。
I have heavily pushed back on Trump's scapegoat-y claim that diesel prices are being driven entirely by Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries—it's more like ~50/50 with the Iran War imho. But this comparison is a bit silly. Ukrainian strikes have absolutely hammered 引用 @marcthiessen：🚨BREAKI
This is not that different from a hypothetical scenario I wrote about last month after the Hugging Face report. https://t.co/SuUv92kISc 引用 @Marcus_J_W：New misalignment disclosures! 1. June 17: During RL training, a model exploited a government website’s file-download feature to retrieve server secr
The surge in AI-related imports is leading to increased import price pressures that are filtering through to domestic producer and consumer price inflation https://t.co/q1NLbJodYV
Markets positioned for a “hawkish hold” at October FOMC meeting https://t.co/NUIFkLd7uq
Physics can be managed with enough money and willingness to accept totally impractical compromises. It can't be beaten without those compromises.
Yeah. Quant trading seems like a space where you could never have too much intelligence, and always get returns from more capable models. But also totally zero sum market. Permanent arms race to fight over a fixed amount of alpha. 引用 @stevehou：This is a great set of observations. I agree with almos
Roadster刚完成新一轮展示对特斯拉的当下影响是什么？ 近期市场认真讨论与SpaceX合并的可能性有多大？ 下周10月21日美股盘后特斯拉三季报能否超预期、需要关注的点有哪些？ 在OKX星球上写了一篇文章，核心就是聊这三方面。 简单说就是： Roadster能够改善市场对特斯拉技术能力的观感； https://t.co/1DcgaXwO38 引用 @qinbafrank：太牛了，Tesla Roadster让我们看到了真的能飞起来的汽车，而且零百加速低于一秒。新一代Roadster使用SpaceX冷气推进器（压缩空气喷嘴）来实现短距离跳跃、悬停和空中翻转，技术已经能相互赋能，这会是Sp
Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok. "Kristalina, you pronounce it A.I. In the U.S. we now pronounce it S.I., just so you know."😆 https://t.co/uZlsy0IhVz 引用 @vtg2：Fed Chair Kevin Warsh threading the needle by joking(?) that in the US, AI is now called "SI," and
If anyone was wondering whether Trump's Russian diesel deal was a crack that might provide Europe with some wiggle room to source more Russian molecules ahead of winter the answer is NOPE. https://t.co/8GW8RqqDi5
从控制权的角度看老马是有多想把特斯拉装进SpaceX里去？答案是非常想。从股份和投票权就能看出来： 1）老马在特斯拉持股约20%左右，特斯拉是单一类别股票没有超级投票前去，所以老马在特斯拉的投票权也在20%左右。 2）但SpaceX则不同 老马在SpaceX持股比例48.4%，但SpaceX采用双重股权结构：Class 引用 @qinbafrank：Roadster刚完成新一轮展示对特斯拉的当下影响是什么？ 近期市场认真讨论与SpaceX合并的可能性有多大？ 下周10月21日美股盘后特斯拉三季报能否超预期、需要关注的点有哪些？ 在OKX星球上写了一篇文章，核心就是聊这三方面。 简单说就是：
Our latest @SchwabResearch #SchwabMarketPerspective has been published: https://t.co/d1Y4Fjf1c2
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I explore hotter-than-expected inflation and why investors should remain focused on quality as higher rates pressure more interest-rate-sensitive companies. Colin also sits down with @TCWGroup
TBAC Questionaire. No obvious guidance that "The House" is going to martingale and manipulate the long end further.
Today's TBAC/Dealer Questionnaire may have been a signal that "The House" has folded. If he had wanted to pump ahead of election he could have. The odds he folded went up today. Read this client report and pinned tweet for membership info. https://t.co/XqG6e4LXmx
朋友，PM有业绩压力，我没有。 我接触的LO基金，今年全部跑输ACWI 5-10+%，全是出名的机构，主动基金过去几年是灾难区，就算是HF，今年不是5月份的追涨也是一塌糊涂。可以把今年HF的YTD一家家都列出来，没赚多少还DEGROSS，4月份他们敢追吗？ 引用 @zhusports1982：@TJ_Research 小桃有自己的view是一个很好的点！但如果站在机构角度，你离PM还有蛮多提升空间～试着站在LO甚至空头角度思考板块配置和仓位管理，比如最近那么明显的degross趋势，就应该降一些硬件仓位或者做对冲，而不是满仓状态去迎接业绩期～
很多LO二季度开始追芯片，卖软件，纯韭菜操作，就是因为就业绩差，要追指数配置，看看我置顶的推。 个人投资你老板是你自己，只需要向自己交代就好，机构的老板是ASSET OWNER，有业绩压力就肯定有时候要妥协，投资理念向业绩妥协，没办法，这个世界就是这么现实 引用 @TJ_Research：朋友，PM有业绩压力，我没有。 我接触的LO基金，今年全部跑输ACWI 5-10+%，全是出名的机构，主动基金过去几年是灾难区，就算是HF，今年不是5月份的追涨也是一塌糊涂。可以把今年HF的YTD一家家都列出来，没赚多少还DEGROSS，4月份他们敢追吗？
The (1-x) qualification to the rotation trade within the stock market away from tech that many seem to favor: Given tech's role in recent years as an engine of economic growth and a magnet for domestic and international capital, the wellbeing of the non-tech sector (1-x) could
昨天，今天市场都有谣言说有人爆仓了，看到今天网络安全都跌成这样，我的感觉也是可能有机构爆仓了，捡便宜吧
Lovely tribute to Perry Mehrling from @adam_tooze https://t.co/kqJ2TyCO2F (worth reading it, particularly the ending, while considering that Michael Woodford just won the Nobel for a model of the economy that explicitly has no money in it at all)
Story 2 with the whole lead up to October 19th for the 39th anniversary 引用 @dampedspring：Life as an Investment Banking Analyst Oct 13 - Oct 19 1987. The week before the stock market crash of 1987 was already bizarre at Salomon Brothers. On 10/13, John Gutfreund, perhaps sensing the upcoming event
Is it bullish or bearish that SPX is down 2.1% from ATH close?