X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
And there are of course offsetting developments in the financial account -- DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars ... (as an aside, this shock hasn't reduced China's surplus, as it increased both exports and imports similarly)
台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国9月贸易顺差为500亿美元。按年化计算，两地顺差合计约9000亿美元；作者称，过去一年这一规模占全球GDP的比重增加了超过0.5个百分点，并将全球经常账户冲击比作20世纪70年代的石油冲击。
And a few other technical points here -- (1) the IMF itself has long indicated it puts the most weight on the "current account" model, which now implies a 21% plus undervaluation (4% surplus is over 3% of GDP higher than the 0.5 to 1 % of GDP norm, each pp of excess surplus is
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
Very good piece "The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe" 2/2 https://t.co/eOgu6xEn7g
Korea and Taiwan combined to run a trade surplus of $800b if the September numbers are annualized. Up from $100b two years ago ... If sustained, this is consistent with a $1 trillion current account surplus in Korea and Taiwan next year. Crazy 1/2 https://t.co/HiM6BzK1At
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtcxex #BLSdata https://t.co/kzajZpNwHW
Yes, they are traitors aiding an invasion and they deserve the fate of traitors 引用 @xenocosmography：Anyone facilitating the entry of these fiends into the country should be considered an accessory to their crimes, and face draconian punishment upon the restoration of patriotic government. ... https
台湾9月半导体出口同比增长46.1%至297.4亿美元，推动台湾9月单月出口额创历史新高。1月至9月半导体出口额为2200亿美元，同比增长47.3%；同期整体出口同比增长60.9%至872.2亿美元。
Good morning. FYI, the link to yesterday's conversation with Wilfred Frost on Sky News. https://t.co/8ZCAgl0Z7I #economy #uk #markets #budget @WilfredFrost @SkyNews https://t.co/R1Y7S3x0nQ
The first hurricane of the North Atlantic season: Isais, which has formed inside the US Gulf of Mexico. On current tracking forecast, the threat is limited to GoM oil production. Crucially, little refining capacity in Alabama (3 refineries in total, with ~140,000 of capacity).
European government bond yields continue their upward march this morning. #economy #bonds #markets #europe https://t.co/KfLauyCVqH
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @CentralBank_TR: https://t.co/FXJ1moQ8Ug Watch live: https://t.co/myzcmKOHtr Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
波斯湾至远东基准航线的油运日运费升至约140万美元，一年前不足5万美元。运费上涨也扩散至中东冲突以外的多条航线，尤其是美国墨西哥湾沿岸和西非相关航线。
.@SecScottBessent: “We have had 1 million private-sector jobs, and those are going to Americans. We are down 300,000 government jobs. We are seeing a manufacturing boom. Last year, we were setting the table, and this year is the banquet. We are seeing construction jobs that are https://t.co/ChlChMlK
.@SecScottBessent: “The reason we had this crippling inflation under the Democrats was they created a demand shock, but then the regulatory state constricted supply. What President Trump has done is create a private-sector demand shock with tax policy, energy policy, and trade https://t.co/2l6sHeY7i
美国390亿美元十年期国债拍卖中标收益率为5.3%，低于预发行利率所反映的市场定价预期。认购倍数为2.77倍，高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍。引用内容称，拍卖前市场关注收益率向5.4%上行及拍卖吸收情况，并讨论了出现明显 auction tail 或 stop-through 和强 indirect 的两种情形。
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/R35o3mL0Ff
8月消费者信贷环比增加83亿美元，低于150亿美元的预期值和前值177亿美元，为三个月来最小增幅。
This sharp rise in UK gilt yields—with the 10-year up another 7 bps this morning to 5.45%—further complicates an already difficult UK budget formulation. Indeed, this may well be the toughest fiscal formulation challenge in years. #economy #markets #uk #budget #yields https://t.co/6VxoJZp7uD
据半官方的法尔斯通讯社，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡的“非法”航线。作者称，这实际上是革命卫队首次公开承认该水道已不再关闭。
Nice concession building into 39BN of 10's and 22BN of 30's in the next 30 hours
Following up on the earlier UK budget note: The 30-year gilt yield now carries a 6% handle, reaching its highest level in 28 years. #economy #markets #bonds #uk #yields https://t.co/XExmwZVA4b
The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their recent peaks. The less good news: both remain elevated and face an uncertain outlook. AAA data below. #economy #markets #gas #diesel #energy https://t.co/8ue41ZiQy2
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation when yields have fallen) https://t.co/GQpmw1D0ux
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
联合国粮农组织食品价格指数9月升至近四年高位，较一年前上涨5.8%。谷物、植物油和食糖价格上涨，肉类价格下跌；乳制品价格……
The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports of Chinese hybrids has jumped to 0.5m cars in a short period of time (in a total market of just over 10m cars right now) 2/ https://t.co/aulLgmX3A4
It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to discourage retaliation ...) before the prohibitive tariff kicks in will be the commission's tool of choice this fall 4/4 https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp
Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types) and are four times current EU exports to China (of all car types) 3/ https://t.co/WpZfWDiOOu
美国30年期固定房贷合同利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高。过去3周利率上涨约50个基点，增幅为2023年初以来最快。
US10y收益率从5.3%向5.4%攀升，资产受到压制，凌晨一点的十年期美债拍卖被视为今晚重要的价格事件之一。若高收益率仍需明显auction tail才能吸收，长债压力可能升温；若出现明显stop-through和强indirect，正文未完，具体判断不完整。
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker @byHeatherLong @JohnFMauldin https://t.co/w3A2pJIihg
Most people get majority of income from selling their labor, however, that type of income has been declining as % of all personal income (long-term trend dating back to 1960s); in addition to wages, Americans now receive significant income from investments, rental properties, and https://t.co/ASQQvX
And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can lead to swings in Korea's surplus of the kind not seen since the change in the oil surplus back in the 70s. DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars 3/3 https://t.co/2XcO1lHHkj
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities
The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.49% last week in the MBA survey, up from 7.3% in the previous week. A new three-year high. Mortgage applications for purchase loans slid again, are down 13% y/y using a four-week rolling average. https://t.co/8TZBXYrFAQ
Consumer spending increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2025. Current-dollar spending was up the most in Florida, at 7.0%, and the least in California, at 4.2%. Get details in our blog: https://t.co/OejB60v8Zj https://t.co/if66Zbo4jX