今日油轮运费进一步上涨，扰乱实货原油市场
今日油轮运费进一步上涨。9月初以来的运费涨势扰乱实货原油市场，推高了Dated Brent等基准价格，也迫使西非原油（WAF crude）出现创纪录折价。
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X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分4343 X·宏观AI 评分4444 霍尔木兹海峡油轮遭伊朗袭击，波斯湾装载活动仍强劲
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
X·宏观AI 评分6262 国际能源署成员国称必要时准备追加释放战略储备石油，并优先保障柴油
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European…
The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European safeguards limiting China's auto exports (presumably b/c of a significant tariff rate quota that allows some ongoing exports) -- and then the discussion will turn to other sectors 2/2
X·宏观AI 评分5858 中国拒绝欧盟限制混合动力汽车出口请求，双方进入紧急谈判
中国拒绝了欧盟要求其自愿限制混合动力汽车对欧出口的请求，双方进入最后阶段谈判以避免贸易冲突。原文附有报道链接：https://t.co/0PxI73B411
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储公布2026年9月15日至16日FOMC会议纪要
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 #BLSdata
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtd545 #BLSdata https://t.co/QMHpuji94s
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美联储会议纪要称多数与会者认为年末可能适合再次加息
美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为，到年底再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。原文未提供具体加息幅度或确定的行动安排。 https://t.co/QEWpwekHD5
X·宏观AI 评分4141 8月美国消费者信贷增长1.9%，循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
X·宏观AI 评分5252 布伦特原油短暂跌破100美元后回升，IEA称必要时可追加释放战略储备
布伦特原油一度跌破100美元，随后回升至100美元上方。原文引用IEA负责人周三的表态称，成员国已准备好在必要时从战略储备中追加释放原油，并将优先保障供应偏紧的柴油。
X·宏观AI 评分4040 白宫要求五角大楼准备中期选举前对伊朗目标采取潜在打击的方案
据两名政府官员，白宫已指示五角大楼准备针对伊朗目标的潜在打击方案，这些行动可能在中期选举前实施。官员称，相关规划旨在突出总统降低汽油价格的努力。
X·宏观AI 评分5454 UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边共13起船只遇袭
UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边的船只遇袭总数达到13起。https://t.co/jpmGIUsS1X
X·宏观AI 评分2121 The known unknown is how China will react to the safeguards cases, starting with the hybrid cars…
The known unknown is how China will react to the safeguards cases, starting with the hybrid cars case. and then how Europe responds if Chinas response isn't limited to the expected cognac and ham tariffs ...
X·宏观AI 评分2323 I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the…
I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the proposal for voluntary export restraints -- hence the safeguards cases that are ready as a fallback https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp 2/2 https://t.co/cArLkugzgp
X·宏观AI 评分5050 万斯称伊朗难以阻止石油经霍尔木兹海峡出口
美国副总统万斯在接受路透社采访时称，尽管伊朗不时袭击霍尔木兹海峡的商船，但伊朗基本上无法阻止石油通过该水道出口。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Good morning.
Good morning. Europe is facing higher government bond yields yet again. France, now the "high beta" economy yield-wise, is leading a regional rise that increasingly reflects a two-way dynamic with US Treasuries (albeit with varying sensitivities). #economy #bonds #yields #markets https://t.co/o1Vdac
X·财经博主AI 评分4242 台湾检方起诉10名公司高管，指其涉嫌向中国转售美国军用级芯片
台湾检方起诉10名公司高管，指控他们涉嫌向中国转售美国军用级芯片。涉事芯片来自Analog Devices和Texas Instruments，可用于多种军事装备；指控包括欺诈、伪造和金钱相关罪名。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 #BLSdata
The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 https://t.co/Qzgc4PuZfu #BLSdata https://t.co/b5UToXkLi1
X·宏观AI 评分4646 贝森特称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，债务占GDP比重可能迅速下降
贝森特称，美国可通过经济增长和支出约束扭转债务轨迹，使债务占GDP比重开始下降，并表示这一变化可能很快发生。他还称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，且这一增速可以持续。
X·宏观AI 评分2828 今天币市小跳水其实UNI是先行信号，如果细看昨晚UNI就有点撑不住了。也是上周六10月3号推文聊到的，9月底到10月下旬银行准备金（美元流动性的核心）有一个收紧，11月之后慢慢回升，所以10月整体流动…
今天币市小跳水其实UNI是先行信号，如果细看昨晚UNI就有点撑不住了。也是上周六10月3号推文聊到的，9月底到10月下旬银行准备金（美元流动性的核心）有一个收紧，11月之后慢慢回升，所以10月整体流动性都是偏紧的。 https://t.co/RQGgUmTXMu 引用 @qinbafrank：昨天大饼昨天画门，个人角度看核心原因还是流动性近期还是在收紧。上上周银行准备金在3.03万亿，上周降到2.96万亿，本周9月30之前的一周内每个工作日准备金余额的平均值2.94万亿，但是但到本周三收盘准备金余额突然降到2.88万亿美金，相当于当天又被抽走了600多亿美金，对应的财政部TGA账户余额也回升
X·宏观AI 评分3434 A fifth straight week of gains for private payrolls which added an average of 23,750 jobs for…
A fifth straight week of gains for private payrolls which added an average of 23,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sept 19 per @adpresearch https://t.co/JvHdjkEXbo
X·宏观AI 评分3333 The United States’ trade deficit in goods and services increased to $105.6 billion in August.
The United States’ trade deficit in goods and services increased to $105.6 billion in August. https://t.co/iabpVcJ3yV https://t.co/16wG9cB3CP https://t.co/tLG11OhGkZ
X·宏观AI 评分5555 美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于预估和上月水平
美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于1021亿美元的预估和上月的928亿美元，为“解放日”以来最大。进口增长4.3%，出口增长1.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now.…
no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now. Heavy investment in an economy with a large fiscal deficit means importing capital from the rest of the world. Or put differently the US needs the world's imports to meet its
X·宏观AI 评分3333 The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of…
The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of liberation day) levels -- annualized the non-petrol August goods deficit was $1.7 trillion or so 1/ https://t.co/JvMK3f2qKe
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available.
Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available. https://t.co/CgtKCyhDLC https://t.co/Eyohy3bs8B
X·宏观AI 评分2020 119BN of 3's 10's and 30's for sale over the next 3 days
119BN of 3's 10's and 30's for sale over the next 3 days
X·宏观AI 评分1111 The cost of heating oil in Maine is up 80% from last year.
The cost of heating oil in Maine is up 80% from last year. https://t.co/0iD19D4PbG https://t.co/x9Lqt1vwmx
X·宏观AI 评分2929 Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision :
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV Watch live: https://t.co/3uONmVD82z Learn more about Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: https://t.co/tWe5lT3FDv
X·宏观AI 评分6060 印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨
印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨，达到当月最高需求水平。8月消费量由1860.6万吨下修至1854.5万吨；9月柴油消费同比增长5.6%至716.4万吨，汽油消费同比增长8.0%。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed…
A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed enthusiasm about the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered the bull market. https://t.co/YWr3Vi8dP1 https://t.co/oC6gDrTLjg
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美国9月ISM服务业指数报54.9，通胀指数升至2022年以来高位
美国9月ISM服务业指数为54.9，下降0.5点。活动指数为56.5，下降5.2点；新订单为59.8，下降1.1点；就业为50.1，上升2.3点；积压订单为56.6，上升1点；通胀指数为74，上升1.4点，为2022年以来高位。原文将燃料、关税和利率列为成本因素。
X·宏观AI 评分6565 秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计2026年全球鱼粉产量将降至十年低位
秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计全球鱼粉产量将在2026年降至十年低位。原文称鱼粉和鱼油价格处于纪录高位。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 I am certainly expecting goods deficits of 5% of GDP or more and goods and services deficits of 4%…
I am certainly expecting goods deficits of 5% of GDP or more and goods and services deficits of 4% of GDP or more for the remainder of the year. Momentum on import side is clear ... notwithstanding Trump's tariffs 3/3 https://t.co/JPaVCd4fUl
X·宏观AI 评分4242 电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模接近9000亿美元，占GDP近3%
电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模约9000亿美元，占GDP略低于3%，较2024年占GDP的比例上升逾2个百分点。其余贸易部分的逆差仍小于2024年，关税实施前的抢进口造成的扭曲仍在消化。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 #BLSdata
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/GQj8NrvCT3
X·宏观AI 评分5656 纽约联储研究称关税截至2026年2月对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点
纽约联储研究称，截至2026年2月，关税对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点；若没有关税，商品价格会略有下降。研究估算，关税税率每提高1个百分点，约四分之一会在一年内体现于消费者价格。
X·宏观AI 评分2323 EIA expects lower natural gas and propane heating costs this winter. #STEO
EIA expects lower natural gas and propane heating costs this winter. #STEO 💻 https://t.co/B65OLrQr4J Register now for the Tuesday, October 13, NASEO webinar featuring our newest Winter Fuels Outlook. 💻 https://t.co/MLrOGdIjlW https://t.co/o3M5ARnLKB
X·宏观AI 评分6060 Brad Setser称关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于预期
Brad Setser认为，关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于其预期。文中称，每提高1个百分点关税税率，约四分之一会在一年内反映到消费价格；引用纽约联储数据称，截至2026年2月，关税使商品价格通胀增加2.9个百分点，若无关税，商品价格将略有下降。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong…
The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong print for Treasuries was in May; June and July were weak. But it sure looks like the world wants to finance San Francisco much than it wants to finance DC right now 2/2 https://t.co/yfjkrSBup4