Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation…
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation when yields have fallen) https://t.co/GQpmw1D0ux
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X·宏观AI 评分2323 X·宏观AI 评分3131 这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT…
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
X·宏观AI 评分4444 美国8月工业用品进口额环比增加91亿美元，贸易逆差升至1056亿美元
美国8月工业用品进口额较上月增加91亿美元，增长17%，涉及石油、原油、化学品和金属进口。同期整体贸易逆差升至1056亿美元。
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be…
Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be declaring economic war with the U.S. 引用 @DannyDayan5：Nationalism has made the world more expensive. Europe and their bond markets have been the most negatively impacted. There are actions policymakers ca
X·宏观AI 评分4949 联合国粮农组织食品价格指数升至近四年高位，9月同比上涨5.8%
联合国粮农组织食品价格指数9月升至近四年高位，较一年前上涨5.8%。谷物、植物油和食糖价格上涨，肉类价格下跌；乳制品价格……
X·宏观AI 评分2323 For week ended 10/2/26, bulk of ETF categories had positive inflows, led by government bonds and…
For week ended 10/2/26, bulk of ETF categories had positive inflows, led by government bonds and U.S. large caps … cyclical sectors had largest outflows @DataArbor https://t.co/HwOrY0Cifx
X·宏观AI 评分3636 The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports…
The "surge" in imports hybrids and plug in hybrids is clear in the trade data -- the EU's imports of Chinese hybrids has jumped to 0.5m cars in a short period of time (in a total market of just over 10m cars right now) 2/ https://t.co/aulLgmX3A4
X·宏观AI 评分1212 It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to…
It looks like tariff rate quotas -- which allow some Chinese imports into the market (as a bribe to discourage retaliation ...) before the prohibitive tariff kicks in will be the commission's tool of choice this fall 4/4 https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp
X·宏观AI 评分3939 Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types)…
Current EU imports of hybrids/ plug in hybrids exceed peak EU exports to China (of all car types) and are four times current EU exports to China (of all car types) 3/ https://t.co/WpZfWDiOOu
X·宏观AI 评分3131 EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are…
EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are clear import surges that are disrupting parts of the European economy 1/ https://t.co/nrRa8m2Mdj
X·宏观AI 评分4242 美国30年期固定房贷利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高
美国30年期固定房贷合同利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高。过去3周利率上涨约50个基点，增幅为2023年初以来最快。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 While the world frets human extinction from AI, and I look at AI’s impact on humans’ jobs:
While the world frets human extinction from AI, @KevRGordon and I look at AI’s impact on humans’ jobs: https://t.co/Lm87VvW5YM
X·宏观AI 评分4545 US10y接近5.4%，十年期美债拍卖成今晚重要价格事件之一
US10y收益率从5.3%向5.4%攀升，资产受到压制，凌晨一点的十年期美债拍卖被视为今晚重要的价格事件之一。若高收益率仍需明显auction tail才能吸收，长债压力可能升温；若出现明显stop-through和强indirect，正文未完，具体判断不完整。
X·宏观AI 评分3535 At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for…
At $4.41 national average as of October 1, gasoline is much higher than it was in any October for past five years and well above October 2022 (last energy shock year) @charliebilello @JohnFMauldin @AAA_Travel https://t.co/cKX3iitC1e
X·宏观AI 评分1717 CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker
CPI inflation is now rising more than wages for average American worker @byHeatherLong @JohnFMauldin https://t.co/w3A2pJIihg
X·宏观AI 评分88 你们以为KOL在DISCORD里给你们发金猪，实际上你们做了量化的流动性🥲
你们以为KOL在DISCORD里给你们发金猪，实际上你们做了量化的流动性🥲 https://t.co/RxvqcOiGFS
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Most people get majority of income from selling their labor, however, that type of income has been…
Most people get majority of income from selling their labor, however, that type of income has been declining as % of all personal income (long-term trend dating back to 1960s); in addition to wages, Americans now receive significant income from investments, rental properties, and https://t.co/ASQQvX
X·宏观AI 评分2727 While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in…
While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot https://t.co/MGFdA0L3wJ
X·宏观AI 评分2929 And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can…
And one thing that should be in future textbooks -- a big enough shock to semiconductor prices can lead to swings in Korea's surplus of the kind not seen since the change in the oil surplus back in the 70s. DRAM dollars now trump petrodollars 3/3 https://t.co/2XcO1lHHkj
X·宏观AI 评分2222 One thing that absolutely is in the textbooks -- a big investment boom both pulls in imports and…
One thing that absolutely is in the textbooks -- a big investment boom both pulls in imports and changes the savings v investment balance. The current data center/ AI investment boom is in fact unusually import intensive 2/3 https://t.co/lILe9wv7wx
X·宏观AI 评分1515 One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and…
One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and pharmaceuticals, triggered by anticipation of possible tariffs that never materialized 1/2 https://t.co/OCCIYUYLXh 引用 @mattyglesias：Trade deficit is a function of savings dynamics and capital flows, not
X·宏观AI 评分88 "The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American…
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities
X·宏观AI 评分1616 In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes…
In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes across firms and over time. Their findings underscore the importance of considering the entire distribution of investment responses rather than focusing on the average effect.
X·宏观AI 评分3434 The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.49% last week in the MBA survey, up from 7.3% in the…
The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.49% last week in the MBA survey, up from 7.3% in the previous week. A new three-year high. Mortgage applications for purchase loans slid again, are down 13% y/y using a four-week rolling average. https://t.co/8TZBXYrFAQ
X·宏观AI 评分22 NB: Recently learned that blowing a raspberry is Cockney rhyming slang.
NB: Recently learned that blowing a raspberry is Cockney rhyming slang. Raspberry is condensation Raspberry Tart, and tart rhymes with fart, which is what blowing a raspberry sounds like. 引用 @talmonsmith：Earl at BMO said a while ago we'll be hitting 6 on the 30yr sooner than later and i remember
X·宏观AI 评分2121 Consumer spending increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2025. Current-dollar…
Consumer spending increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2025. Current-dollar spending was up the most in Florida, at 7.0%, and the least in California, at 4.2%. Get details in our blog: https://t.co/OejB60v8Zj https://t.co/if66Zbo4jX
X·宏观AI 评分4343 今日油轮运费进一步上涨，扰乱实货原油市场
今日油轮运费进一步上涨。9月初以来的运费涨势扰乱实货原油市场，推高了Dated Brent等基准价格，也迫使西非原油（WAF crude）出现创纪录折价。
X·宏观AI 评分4444 霍尔木兹海峡油轮遭伊朗袭击，波斯湾装载活动仍强劲
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 final assembly of all the data center computers has shifted to Mexico and Taiwan as much as it has…
final assembly of all the data center computers has shifted to Mexico and Taiwan as much as it has shifted to Vietnam ... https://t.co/mly2GqkidL
X·宏观AI 评分3737 The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in…
The tariff that had the biggest impact on the US bilateral deficit with China? The no longer in effect fentanyl tariff, which didn't exclude electronics -- if even 30% of current computer imports came from China that would add $100b to the bilateral balance! https://t.co/Qb51fUvgyE 引用 @tradewart
X·宏观AI 评分6262 国际能源署成员国称必要时准备追加释放战略储备石油，并优先保障柴油
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European…
The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European safeguards limiting China's auto exports (presumably b/c of a significant tariff rate quota that allows some ongoing exports) -- and then the discussion will turn to other sectors 2/2
X·宏观AI 评分5858 中国拒绝欧盟限制混合动力汽车出口请求，双方进入紧急谈判
中国拒绝了欧盟要求其自愿限制混合动力汽车对欧出口的请求，双方进入最后阶段谈判以避免贸易冲突。原文附有报道链接：https://t.co/0PxI73B411
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储公布2026年9月15日至16日FOMC会议纪要
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 #BLSdata
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtd545 #BLSdata https://t.co/QMHpuji94s
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美联储会议纪要称多数与会者认为年末可能适合再次加息
美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为，到年底再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。原文未提供具体加息幅度或确定的行动安排。 https://t.co/QEWpwekHD5
X·宏观AI 评分3131 .: “As we create an ownership account for every American family via , every family—every…
.@SecScottBessent: “As we create an ownership account for every American family via @TrumpAccounts, every family—every child—deserves to have a piece of the American dream, and these Trump Accounts are just that. A child born during @POTUS' presidency—Treasury will seed the https://t.co/pGJwGJslBS
X·宏观AI 评分4141 8月美国消费者信贷增长1.9%，循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
X·宏观AI 评分1111 The last thing an advisor needs is to explain to a client that they are facing a retroactive tax…
The last thing an advisor needs is to explain to a client that they are facing a retroactive tax clawback in some product when the admin has already made it clear that it's in the cards for the most abusive versions of these products.
X·宏观AI 评分99 Recent rise in advisors asking me how to think about the various tax avoidance strategies that they…
Recent rise in advisors asking me how to think about the various tax avoidance strategies that they are getting bombarded with every day. My answer is pretty simple - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.