X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
This chart is from The Economist's article on "the fast-growing stock of AI-related debt." Without a matching rise in loanable funds, persistent rate pressure will likely crowd out rate-sensitive, non-tech sectors. #economy #markets #bonds #yields @TheEconomist https://t.co/zbJNors0XI
企业债市场的稳健表现曾给股票交易员带来安慰，但过去几周这一支撑有所减弱。企业债收益率逐步走高，尤其是信用状况较弱的公司；最低评级债券收益率已升至2022年以来最高水平。
约6%的长期预算赤字，再加上到期债务以更高利率再融资，这笔账是这样算的： #经济 #市场 #债务 #收益率 https://t.co/PhUJwQvf37 原文： The math of a protracted budget deficit of around 6% PLUS the refinancing of maturing debt at higher rates: #economy #markets #debt #yields https://t.co/PhUJwQvf37
As this mix of charts from CNBC and Bloomberg illustrates, one of the few areas of economic and financial relief this past week came from lower government bond yields. More to follow in my weekly look at global economy and markets. #economy #markets #stocks #bonds #oil #gold https://t.co/3bG9pFMRc
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I explore hotter-than-expected inflation and why investors should remain focused on quality as higher rates pressure more interest-rate-sensitive companies. Colin also sits down with @TCWGroup
TBAC Questionaire. No obvious guidance that "The House" is going to martingale and manipulate the long end further.
Today's TBAC/Dealer Questionnaire may have been a signal that "The House" has folded. If he had wanted to pump ahead of election he could have. The odds he folded went up today. Read this client report and pinned tweet for membership info. https://t.co/XqG6e4LXmx
Your occasional reminder that nobody has "lost control of the long end" of the bond market. The yield curve is flat. Yields are broadly high, from short to long, because inflation is persistently above-target. https://t.co/x8OigvaiSc
Fascinating thread 引用 @jstatistic：What’s behind the saw-tooth in Canadian Treasury holdings and money-fund repo to Canadian banks? Mostly the well-known window-dressing by dealers around reporting dates. But I think it masks the bigger takeaway. https://t.co/4hKy9eRu8o
ODD LOTS新一期采访德国外交关系委员会成员、马克龙前顾问Shahin Vallée，讨论法国政治危机转为债务危机以及欧元危机2.0的风险。
10年期收益率与标普500的滚动相关性仍为负，尽管昨天出现了有趣的正相关走势 https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG 原文： Rolling correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains negative, notwithstanding yesterday’s interesting positive correlated move https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG
本该是强化10月加息预期的时候，但沃什却没有这么做。今天在泰国曼谷与IMF总裁展开炉边谈话的时候，沃什表示2026年剩余的两次议息会议将是形成明确政策判断的关键时刻。因为前两天9月cpi和ppi的强势，大家想通过沃什的讲话看出有没有透露出“加息的紧迫性”，但他没有说“通胀风险正在加剧、可能需要进一 引用 @qinbafrank：如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
尽管本周CPI与PPI都热于预期，十年期收益率仍下行。 原文： 10-year yield down despite CPI and PPI coming in hotter than expected this week. https://t.co/N4H2O0yLyN https://t.co/WePZzQYJj6 引用 @TheStalwart：We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trad
Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints (CNBC chart below)? I suspect it comes down to two main drivers, with the second having more implications for the well-being of the US and global economies: A flight to quality https://t.co/DPn00Fgg
Yowza. 40BN offered in this buyback. Does "The House" Martingale? https://t.co/8aZRDXQbvk
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
Bond rally off lows feels like when stocks were in max fear and ripped off the hot CPI print in Oct 2022
今天清晨值得注意：10年期美国国债收益率大幅下跌，交易于略低于5.10%的水平。 #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/Dd9VLyFsNF 原文： Of note this early morning: the yield on 10-year US government bonds has fallen sharply, trading just below 5.10%. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/Dd9VLyFsNF
.@MBAmortgage（美国抵押贷款银行家协会）截至 10 月 9 日当周抵押贷款申请再次下降，-2.7%，前值 -4.2%……30 年期固定抵押贷款利率现为 7.50% https://t.co/F7Sy2I9eN8 原文： .@MBAmortgage mortgage applications for week ended Oct. 9 fell again, -2.7% vs. -4.2% prior … 30-year fixed mortgage now at 7.50% https://t.co/F7Sy2I9eN8
最近因为 6% 和期货 CTD（最便宜可交割券）切换而唱衰的帖子大多完全是胡说八道。期权偏度（skew）已经反映了这一点，而且华尔街、交易商和套利者自上世纪 80 年代末以来就明白它的运作方式。只是因为你刚接触它，并不意味着这是个事儿。https://t.co/lo7tSUXplL 【被引推文 @dampedspring】CTD 101——连入门都算不上，只是个介绍 所以 6% 确实很重要。也许对期货期权的隐含波动率（IV）最重要。也许对 ZB 的价格也重要，但没那么确定。 基本上，如果——这是个很大的如果——期货的可交割券篮子（大约 20-30 年期的债券）平行上移到 6% 以上，并且
October rate hike odds jumped significantly (nearly doubling from yesterday) post-CPI print this morning @CMEGroup https://t.co/a6mI95pgxH
Today is another good example... shift up across the curve largely driven by higher short-end rate expectations, not some ambiguous "buyers strike" at the long-end. https://t.co/hr2vslPcFm
It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected. (Ducks)
美国CPI高于预期后，美债收益率一度上升，市场对美联储10月加息的概率也随之提高；两项变化在交易时段内均有所回落。原文提到总体通胀上涨0.6%，未注明比较口径。
今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。 至于美股，今天和美债利率是一起下跌，走出了衰退行情，千变万化😀 https://t.co/pDpjmd50bE
名义增长（通胀加上实际增长）决定了名义收益率的合理水平。这意味着实际增长在决定名义收益率方面也有作用。 名义收益率不仅仅是对通胀预期的反应，正如我在这里解释的。 https://t.co/0bdPnwpo4m https://t.co/fkWweDw9Ja 【引用原文】@johnarnold：我越来越倾向于这样一种观点：提高联邦基金利率对降低通胀作用甚微，甚至可能适得其反。 - AI 投资不太可能因为利率略高而放缓 - 能源需求高度缺乏弹性，利率变化无法缓解当前的供给冲击 - 更高的利率会伤害住房、能源、汽车和其他资本密集型行业的供给侧解决方案 - 更高的借贷成本会抬高企业运营费用，其中
债市正常状态 当我们最爱的债市末日论者加大对美国利率“末日决战”的鼓吹时，现实是：与基础数据和预期中的进一步紧缩相比，这轮收益率上升看起来相当正常。 https://t.co/QkXiGU1wB5 https://t.co/R8fhE8lGaW 原文： Bond Market Normalcy While our favorite bond doomers amp up their calls for US rate armageddon, the reality is the yield rise looked pretty normal compared to underlying
谷歌10年期债券5.9%回报 META10年期债券6.2%回报 亚麻10年期债券6%回报 美债10年期5.2%回报 标普平均每年10%，从资产配置这个角度看，债券会再次成为香饽饽的资产，但不代表美股就一定要跌，参考80年代的高利率和美股同涨，是时候考验公司如何应对高融资成本的时候了。当利率在高位稳定下来之后，科技股仍然是最受欢迎的，为何？因为ROIC高，低ROIC的公司不如买债券。 上一次高利率真的要回到近20年前了。从个人角度，对于稳定现金流有追求的，相对低风险需求的投资人，请考虑增配债券，但别乱碰TLT
是这样，对于资产配置的影响会很大 美股的分歧也会更大 https://t.co/KEbTkBaSD4 引用 @queue_ct：@TJ_Research 30Y 美债接近 6%，不一定要死守美股了 操作的好的话，债券的回报率会高于股市
Fiscal dominance. And it begs the question; if hikes don’t have the same effect, is going further really the answer? 引用 @AahanPrometheus：The Fed may have to go further than in prior cycles to slow down activity Hikes don't have the same effect as before https://t.co/k5AKTFbYs1
I agree with Mr. Batson; China needs more borrowing (used more efficiently) to support consumption and strengthen nominal GDP growth. I think many folks have the wrong intuition around an economy that saves 40% of GDP. It will either run massive external surpluses, or be in a 引用 @andrewbatson：@ni
Rolling correlation between bond yields and stock prices https://t.co/BlTWMjTrPn
If the French-German spread ends October at these levels, it'll represent a higher monthly high than the worst of the Euro crisis. Still below the daily peak in 2011. https://t.co/eWGtM7Rutb
Hammack adds that Fed should act and markets react — encouraging to see rise in yields contributing to tighter policy stance, but stresses this is a function of Fed actions and signaling.
Hammack speaks about accountability and information in Fed providing forecasts — « but I’m not invested in SEP being right » She offers connecting the dots with economic forecasts to have a better understanding of individual reaction functions https://t.co/K61fi3nqKH
Good morning. Where do G-7 sovereign yields stand entering the new week? Here’s the 10-year government debt lineup from the WSJ. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/JSRcursLeG
As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising. The yield curve is still flat, nothing is broken. It’s almost expected. But now, the more people talk about it, the more I might become neutral on bonds. https://t.co/uOrymG3qRA
Markets Weekly October 10, 2026 Bonds behaving better AI scare https://t.co/IxkYEm8HDd
French versus Italian sovereign spreads: What Bloomberg is reporting here was thought unlikely, if not unthinkable, not so long ago. #economy #markets #europe #france #italy https://t.co/MEMDAXSGGV
关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.co/jJpEaJwrYp 引用 @qinbafrank：对于大饼和加密，需要关注一些流动性的变化。银行准备金上上周3.03万亿，上周已经回落到2.96万亿。之前8月20号的推文有聊到：从流动性的角度看、近期币市应该还可以，直到9月中。9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点。然后年底又可以更乐