贝森特称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，债务占GDP比重可能迅速下降
贝森特称，美国可通过经济增长和支出约束扭转债务轨迹，使债务占GDP比重开始下降，并表示这一变化可能很快发生。他还称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，且这一增速可以持续。
#美股/全球
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分4646 X·宏观AI 评分5555 美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于预估和上月水平
美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于1021亿美元的预估和上月的928亿美元，为“解放日”以来最大。进口增长4.3%，出口增长1.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况…
花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？ 这是基本面真的比想象中强，还是市场已经对风险麻木？ https://t.co/F09KKLDSHg 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
X·宏观AI 评分1717 no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now.…
no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now. Heavy investment in an economy with a large fiscal deficit means importing capital from the rest of the world. Or put differently the US needs the world's imports to meet its
X·宏观AI 评分22 And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade --
And manufacturing trade (not seasonally adjusted) tracks the trends in non-petrol trade -- 4/ https://t.co/xhaeFM37ig
X·宏观AI 评分3333 The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of…
The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of liberation day) levels -- annualized the non-petrol August goods deficit was $1.7 trillion or so 1/ https://t.co/JvMK3f2qKe
X·宏观AI 评分3737 Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed.
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds https://t.co/nnaySWiPHC
X·宏观AI 评分5858 作者称黄仁勋认为MRVL未来达到万亿美元市值的概率较高
作者称，黄仁勋认为MRVL未来达到万亿美元市值的概率较高。引用内容称，MRVL宣布与谷歌于7月29日达成芯片产品开发协议，涵盖AI、存储和网络芯片领域，协议潜在总值为1200亿美元；MRVL还向谷歌发行最多可购买5897万股股票的认股权证，行权价格为每股206.58美元。协议签署后的第一年内，每季度将有136.0867万份认股权证股份归属。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available.
Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available. https://t.co/CgtKCyhDLC https://t.co/Eyohy3bs8B
X·宏观AI 评分1919 华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域
华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域 引用 @bobby79446955：@TJ_Research 怎么看鼠疫
X·宏观AI 评分3737 A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed…
A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed enthusiasm about the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered the bull market. https://t.co/YWr3Vi8dP1 https://t.co/oC6gDrTLjg
X·宏观AI 评分1515 $GOOG 收购 $CEG，不是在卖飞就是在卖飞的路上，等着 $VST 弥补我的损失！
$GOOG 收购 $CEG，不是在卖飞就是在卖飞的路上，等着 $VST 弥补我的损失！ 能源 = 电 = 数据中心 = TOKEN = 智力 = 营收
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美国9月ISM服务业指数报54.9，通胀指数升至2022年以来高位
美国9月ISM服务业指数为54.9，下降0.5点。活动指数为56.5，下降5.2点；新订单为59.8，下降1.1点；就业为50.1，上升2.3点；积压订单为56.6，上升1点；通胀指数为74，上升1.4点，为2022年以来高位。原文将燃料、关税和利率列为成本因素。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 I am certainly expecting goods deficits of 5% of GDP or more and goods and services deficits of 4%…
I am certainly expecting goods deficits of 5% of GDP or more and goods and services deficits of 4% of GDP or more for the remainder of the year. Momentum on import side is clear ... notwithstanding Trump's tariffs 3/3 https://t.co/JPaVCd4fUl
X·宏观AI 评分4242 电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模接近9000亿美元，占GDP近3%
电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模约9000亿美元，占GDP略低于3%，较2024年占GDP的比例上升逾2个百分点。其余贸易部分的逆差仍小于2024年，关税实施前的抢进口造成的扭曲仍在消化。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and…
The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and how quickly. In today's post, the authors trace tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices for U.S. consumer goods. https://t.co/qKgJSPqQKq
X·宏观AI 评分1818 30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 #BLSdata
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/GQj8NrvCT3
X·宏观AI 评分1717 债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又…
债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又要喊降BETA了🤣🤣🤣一年一个轮回
X·宏观AI 评分3535 The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit.
The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit. How is that being financed -- strong foreign demand for US risk assets ... 1/2 https://t.co/NUsmoSJYRh
X·宏观AI 评分1616 今天的Tom Lee: “美股和比特币在涨说明市场认为债券利率上涨是短暂的”，什么时候狗尾巴摇狗了。照这个逻辑都形成闭环了：美股上涨说明利率上涨是短暂的，所以接下去如果利率下跌美股还能上涨，那到底谁是…
今天的Tom Lee: “美股和比特币在涨说明市场认为债券利率上涨是短暂的”，什么时候狗尾巴摇狗了。照这个逻辑都形成闭环了：美股上涨说明利率上涨是短暂的，所以接下去如果利率下跌美股还能上涨，那到底谁是因，谁是果？ 不喜欢Tom https://t.co/ZepNcmpOGg
X·宏观AI 评分4747 标普500指数今日升至历史新高，创今年第28次纪录收盘
标普500指数今日升至历史新高，创下自8月13日以来首次纪录收盘，也是今年第28次纪录收盘。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 I kind of agree with the “Europe is a museum” line. But see ’s main takeaway from The Curve
I kind of agree with the “Europe is a museum” line. But see @jackclarkSF’s main takeaway from The Curve https://t.co/uARsnADpVU 引用 @talmonsmith：very good newsletter from @TheStalwart as usual. but im still in the Larry Summers Camp over the medium term here despite the near term volatility: "Euro
X·科技公司AI 评分1212 Grok can be your personal chief financial officer!
Grok @Bot can be your personal chief financial officer! 引用 @Teslaconomics：I literally hooked up ALL my finance accounts to Grok Bot. I really mean all of them: 1/ Chase 2/ Charles Schwab 3/ E*TRADE 4/ Fidelity 5/ Robinhood 6/ Wealthfront 7/ Apple Card 8/ 𝕏 Money FYI, this is a total of 30 acco
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 Kinda interesting that everyone focused on the rolling 12W changes in open vs. closed and when it…
Kinda interesting that everyone focused on the rolling 12W changes in open vs. closed and when it got most pronounced everyone was freaking out. last two weeks with really good model releases (Opus 5.5, Sol 6.1) closed actually TOOK back share on volume. It's 52% open - 48% https://t.co/cDMNZtwUcd
X·财经博主AI 评分99 When The Ads Come to the Data $META $GOOGL
When The Ads Come to the Data $META $GOOGL full piece: https://t.co/fLIa8v2Gu7 https://t.co/1ItQagXFeg
X·宏观AI 评分2828 White House widens access to tax-exempted diesel, which normally is restricted to non-road uses…
White House widens access to tax-exempted diesel, which normally is restricted to non-road uses like farming (dyed diesel), in a bid to reduce fuel coast ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The new rule allows dyed diesel use on highways until year-end. https://t.co/FzwpHp2HhS
X·宏观AI 评分11 People talk a lot about how the models are extraordinary in verifiable domains (math, coding etc)…
People talk a lot about how the models are extraordinary in verifiable domains (math, coding etc), while not getting much better at things like writing. But is that actually true? Don’t AI-generated stories keep winning prizes and publication in prestigious outlets? 引用 @generativist：the models are
X·宏观AI 评分3131 Shell CEO Wael Sawan on the new conversation around energy:
Shell CEO Wael Sawan on the new conversation around energy: “I think there's a recognition once again that you cannot have national security without energy security. You cannot have an industrial or an economic strategy that is not underpinned with a solid energy strategy.”
X·财经博主AI 评分5858 美国能源部宣布为Vistra核电机组提供最高42亿美元条件贷款
美国能源部10月5日宣布，将为Vistra核电机组提供最高42亿美元条件贷款，计划增加433 MW，并资助改造以支持约4 GW机组再运行20年。增容计划包括Perry增加213 MW（2031年）、Beaver Valley增加140 MW（2032–33年）；原文在Davis-Besse计划后未提供完整时间信息。
X·财经博主AI 评分2424 This is from the SA Tokenomics model which is the only granular split I've seen but again this is…
This is from the SA Tokenomics model which is the only granular split I've seen but again this is the 30-40% inference I cite in terms of monetized compute one could make the argument post-training/RL is inference too but if still used for training/internal purposes, I think it 引用 @socialcapital：~
X·财经博主AI 评分5656 Shanu Mathew称AI性能成本自2023年以来每季度下降约47%
Shanu Mathew称，自2023年以来，达到给定 AI 性能水平的成本平均每季度下降约47%，相当于每年下降13倍。原文称这一降价速度是 DNA 测序的四倍，并附有链接 https://t.co/e73b7e9V7l。
X·宏观AI 评分5656 Brad Setser谈法院裁定IEEPA关税后特朗普政府重建10%关税的选择
Brad Setser称，法院裁定IEEPA关税违法后，特朗普政府选择基本重建10%的关税，并豁免USMC贸易、药品和电子产品。引用者对此提出异议，称此前特朗普政府已对所有商品加征20%的IEEPA芬太尼关税及“解放日”关税，并称美国最高法院推翻了这些关税。
X·财经博主AI 评分1616 Don’t these charts suggest that the monthly subs are still just heavily subsidized by the companies…
Don’t these charts suggest that the monthly subs are still just heavily subsidized by the companies compared to enterprise APIs and that’s unsustainable 引用 @kimmonismus：Holy sh*t, Anthropic’s subscriptions offer so much more value, even compared to the new and efficient GPT-6.1 Sol. It’s not even c
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Red dye will be added to all US diesel for both broad highway fuel tax relief and to remind voters…
Red dye will be added to all US diesel for both broad highway fuel tax relief and to remind voters of which colour to vote for in the midterms. 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP TO UNVEIL PLAN ON RED-DYED DIESEL ON MONDAY: OFFICIALS
X·宏观AI 评分1818 so we are where we are ... US manufacturing and ag exports are down 2.5% of GDP from their levels…
so we are where we are ... US manufacturing and ag exports are down 2.5% of GDP from their levels in the 1990s ... and are incredibly small v the US economy (~ 4 % of GDP) ... and that decline hasn't actually been offset by growing IP exports (even counting "irish" FDI profits) https://t.co/LZqI4SJo
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 #BLSdata
The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 https://t.co/Qzgc4PurpW #BLSdata https://t.co/BQL5GRt5JO
X·宏观AI 评分4242 美国转向燃油车之际，关税阻碍通用汽车和福特借助中国合资企业对美销售
美国转向内燃机汽车之际，美国关税阻碍通用汽车和福特通过中国合资企业向美国销售汽车，也令特斯拉不愿从上海向美国供货。关税还阻碍中国高端电动汽车生产商。
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Research Spotlight: AI Utilization and Changes in Economic Performance
Research Spotlight: AI Utilization and Changes in Economic Performance https://t.co/QUAp77mpuL #SCB https://t.co/XeCJUxUB5q
X·宏观AI 评分1818 would love to see the accounting that includes Chinese made inputs
would love to see the accounting that includes Chinese made inputs (mechanically, higher prices of Korean made chips and for that matter Canadian oil will reduce China's import share; I am interested in numbers that account directly for embedded Chinese content) 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Let's be clear, t
X·宏观AI 评分1717 a 1 pp shift in the composition of output would normally lead to a shift of ~ 1.3m jobs (US economy…
a 1 pp shift in the composition of output would normally lead to a shift of ~ 1.3m jobs (US economy has 130m jobs at the time). the lower estimate reflects the standard view the traded goods sector is more productive than some service sectors, so less job intense