X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
I've seen some people say that the math solutions are just pre-IPO "hype." Maybe that's true in the sense that they're a signal to investors that in a lot of industries, OpenAI will be in a position to capture some of the really big gains from this technology.
Theoretical math is largely just an intellectual pursuit. But there's a lot of money to be made in areas like pharma or chip design. And it may make sense for OAI and Anth to get out of the token-selling business and just beat everyone else to commercially viable breakthroughs.
THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussion. The best public models will always be far behind what the labs can work with internally. Think about what this means for intelligence-intensive industries. https://t.co/CjZYvil3SQ
Expired: AI will take your job. Tired: A human working with AI will take your job. Wired: A human working with an unreleased model at an AI company will take your job. 引用 @TheStalwart：THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussi
One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's global trade. Domestic demand growth doesn't spill over into demand for European -- other other -- goods anymore. Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export https://t.co/fkbc3D02qv
The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right thing for China's trade partners to ask for can be found here. Europe cares more about whether China is moving ever further away from external balance than about how China
China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve. And China has a problem with external balance (an unusually large surplus), which is a structural problem of the kind that exchange rate adjustment on its own would address. To
有经验数据支持，2023年以来中国出口增速相对全球贸易增长的加快，与2022年以来人民币贬值有关；汇率对出口的影响存在滞后。
And to be clear, the immediate issue isn't bringing China's surplus is down -- it is limiting the pace at which it rises. the 07 to 12 RMB appreciation was in fact central to limiting the nominal rise in China's surplus and facilitating adjustment back then 2/2 https://t.co/e2zzeAZSgq
Very consistent with the @DKThomp point that the physical buildout of AI/ "SI in Trump land" computer infrastructure is much more visible in the actual data than the results of actual AI use 2/2
Starlink is licensed in over 165 countries and has spent five years complying with every single law and requirement of the government of India, so why still no license? Is Ambani the real boss of India? 引用 @malpani：The government is more interested in protecting the interests of crony capitalists
And Grok @Bot only gets better from here 🚀 🚀 You could build an entire company made of Grok Bots! 引用 @MiaAI_lab：Grok @bot might be the most important AI release of 2026. I'm just blown away by what it can do now. A few days ago it felt like a niche toy and I didn't use it much... but now?! It's
This is part of our broader effort to make the systems we all rely upon more secure and resilient. That work will take time: the Anthropic Cyber Mission will expand and change as we learn what works, alongside our partners in the public and private sectors.
This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy
You can debate whether you believe their forecast on capex, labs, etc. but Coatue always does a nice job framing some of the biggest trends in the market very simply. The size of the compute financing & capex wave relative to the broader economy and prior cycles relative to the https://t.co/H5Yeb64
Gigabrains help me out: GS puts required annual hyperscale AI revenue at $526bn, based on average annual capex across 2026 and 2027 and a 20% hyperscaler ROIC. I assume OpenAI and Anthropic have similar ARR, GW capacity and inference share, with $20bn of revenue per blended GW
The new Alexa Tablets are absurd for their price points and compete with the iPad Air. 引用 @chriswelch：Amazon is starting over with tablets. The company's new Alexa Tablets correct past mistakes — they now include Google apps and the Play Store — with a better design that maintains very low prices.
Episode 2 of the Power On podcast is out! I dig into John Ternus’s first month as CEO, why layoffs are possible, his focus on design, and Tim Cook still being very much involved. Plus, Meta’s new VR headset shows what Apple’s Vision Pro should have been. https://t.co/isoSPf5C75
I’d love economists to take a crack at this theory that the US is experiencing a mini-Dutch Disease effect from AI. My big-picture thesis about AI economics right now is that while the discussion about AI safety and existential risk is important, AI’s construction is changing 引用 @johnarnold：This.
In defense tech, they don't say "recurring revenue." They say "attritable," and I think that's beautiful.
Perica and Apple Music head Oliver Schusser are the two eventual successors to Eddy Cue. Either one or the other or both together. 引用 @markgurman：NEW: Apple is naming Steve Smith its new M&A chief, shifting longtime dealmaking head Adrian Perica to focus exclusively on his responsibilities overseei
Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G
It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to see what Apple does here. 引用 @theblaze：Trump says anyone using the term “Artificial Intelligence” instead of calling it Super Intelligence is “THE ENEMY!” https://t.co/gdokou57if
Great analysis by a high IQ person in the industry. 引用 @hsu_steve：AI Boom or Bust? – Manifold #122 Are we in an AI bubble? Analysis of AI CapEx, revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $ TRILLIONS per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global soft
It's made to sound like an accident, yet China was waiting to grab the parts as soon as they reached Hong Kong. Doesn't seem accidental at all. 引用 @business：China managed to get a hold of parts from an F-35 stealth fighter jet after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment t
Valuation based on widget without the manufacturing costs The annoying part of this argument is ok if you’re comfortable saying this model family will dominate all other options at multiple points because of product leadership/ brand loyalty/ecosystem lock-in or whatever at 引用 @malinvested：🙃 htt
Uncomfortable notion for all the folks complaining about climate tech rebrands and the like. It’s the foundation for much of the demand we’re seeing today - commercial, investor appetite, social interest. Heard from a prominent one that recent years have been among the best for 引用 @leepnet：AI saved
Shout out my guy @rmcentush on the great piece around why it's not as simple as ordering a bunch of equipment and 'plugging it in' for data centers - grid or BTM. This is helpful for laymen and experts, both! Visuals are great. Lucky to see early version of the piece and Ryan https://t.co/jB8lBonRc
Grok @Bot is like hiring an extremely competent employee! 引用 @Michael_Fenech_：I keep hearing the same thing from people trying Grok Bot: “I’ve tried it. But I still don’t really understand what I’m supposed to use it for.” If that’s you, give me 53 seconds. I’ll show you the mental model that ma
It's been 3+ years since I outlined the only way to kill inflation in a wealth/dissaving driven economy. We are in the early stages of Act 3 and the supply catalyst turned out to be both private and public sector. https://t.co/VmRFAmk13t https://t.co/46GLV7K2x1
Cooling LLM Spend Timely data suggests paid models ARR growth slowing considerably in recent months. How will the needed $3tln/yr in revenue come by 2030 when linear growth (or worse) is happening at 120bln/yr? h/t @Silicon_Data https://t.co/WtFsXAjiSP https://t.co/34IoGdPhrU
Wrote about this earlier this week, but I think the heart of the bond selloff is basically countries and companies (hyperscalers) have no choice but to keep borrowing, and investors suddenly have a lot more options about what to put their money in. https://t.co/zy1bsbnNAY https://t.co/9FhJRqdMax
Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be declaring economic war with the U.S. 引用 @DannyDayan5：Nationalism has made the world more expensive. Europe and their bond markets have been the most negatively impacted. There are actions policymakers ca
EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense: there are clear import surges that are disrupting parts of the European economy 1/ https://t.co/nrRa8m2Mdj
While the world frets human extinction from AI, @KevRGordon and I look at AI’s impact on humans’ jobs: https://t.co/Lm87VvW5YM
While bond market dooming is in vogue, the reality is most of the US yield move has come in response to stronger than expected economic surprises. A dynamic that could easily reverse given how high forward expectations have become. h/t @thedailyshot https://t.co/MGFdA0L3wJ
One thing that absolutely is in the textbooks -- a big investment boom both pulls in imports and changes the savings v investment balance. The current data center/ AI investment boom is in fact unusually import intensive 2/3 https://t.co/lILe9wv7wx
One thing that is not in the textbooks: the wild gyrations in gold (imports, then exports) and pharmaceuticals, triggered by anticipation of possible tariffs that never materialized 1/2 https://t.co/OCCIYUYLXh 引用 @mattyglesias：Trade deficit is a function of savings dynamics and capital flows, not
In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes across firms and over time. Their findings underscore the importance of considering the entire distribution of investment responses rather than focusing on the average effect.