X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios 1️⃣ Favorable: gradual erosion of US Dollar along with creation of a diverse global multipolar monetary ecosystem 2️⃣ Worrisome: sudden collapse of USD before other systems are mature and robust: global liquidity shortage @nabe_econ https://t.co/OlUuV5
I really enjoyed this chart and history book by @MebFaber For people who like macro and market history, it’s a really cool physical resource. https://t.co/V6n5Iqv5Ld
Remember two weeks ago when risk premium sceptics were looking at ACM and saying risk premiums were falling not rising. Where are the sceptics today. Using one model is stupid but thinking risk premiums were falling back then was even stupiderer https://t.co/KnWYUsuzHk
5/5 Diversification across company names and diversification across investment themes aren't necessarily the same. Concentration risk means half the index is exposed to the AI theme. Half is not. The choice is not necessarily to go all-in on AI or all-in against it. It is
4/5 Concentration is only part of the story. Over the past year, the rolling 6-month correlation (green) has turned slightly negative. Another sign that the headline index conceals two different market experiences. https://t.co/HDiCAqPo3a
This is a funny tweet. Because do people actually associate @pmarca and Thiel with having been prescient about AI? The former I associate with b2b SaaS. The latter with kind of Silicon Valley woo ideas. With Elon it’s more complex, but Brian has a substantive point to make. 引用 @brianchau57：Bay Area
On the flipside, it’s not obvious to me that the doomers have better arguments. But they’re definitely better at arguing, having sharpened the blade on message board the last 15 years.
It would help if all their critics didn’t come off publicly sounding like this guy https://t.co/L6Xntz6Ge1 引用 @MattZeitlin：i still don't really understand how AI can cause human extinction BUT i do become more convinced the doomers/ASI-is-coming people are right when i read the arguments against th
And its standard fiscal advice would more or less result in a much bigger current account surplus -- i.e. it wants China to rely more on exports (think the advice used to be a 7 pp consolidation over 10ys, though that good downplayed for s-term cyclical reasons in the last A4)
The IMF's standard approach has a hard time with a country with massive savings and a public sector that has real assets as well as large debts -- by all of the IMF's standard models, China's large augmented fiscal deficit should have generated a current account deficit ...
作者认为，将中国公共部门债务整体合并分析是一个分析错误，因为这会掩盖中央政府明显的财政空间：利率低、债务占GDP比重低于35%，且拥有大量金融资产。引用内容称，中国公共债务占GDP比重为122%，高于疫情前的74%；扩展口径财政赤字为GDP的10%，偿债支出占中央政府预算的19.2%。
Difficult for the fund to do but I hoped the fund would use this excellent paper to rethink its fiscal advice and move away from the augmented debt/ augmented deficit and treat the LGFVs as financial institutions that might give rise to a bailout cost not as ordinary government
But key points in the essay were asserted not demonstrated -- this one for example "As cheap imports undercut traditional producers and provide low-cost inputs, labour and capital have shifted towards more productive industries" what industries are expanding on a scale able to
I do want to know more about Europe's increased production of electronic components (The firms, sectors and scale)
FT's Tej Parikh really stretched the industrial production data here to fit into into a narrative around market competition, creative destruction and moving upmarket -- the rise in pharma production? Ireland winning a game of tax competition the rise in optical equipment? https://t.co/me7tctXCBy
I am sure this reads well and appeals to many "ango-saxon" readers (and certain circles on the continent) who are apostles of creative destruction and the migration of Western economies out of high end manufactures to services ... https://t.co/o8sFz6OCXu
But as policy advice and an honest assessment of the China challenge I found it a bit thin -- suck it up and move into higher value added niches doesn't cut it when China wants all those niches too, and has been quite successful in capturing many of them /end
Once again. The idea that AI is only improving rapidly in verifiable domains like math is looking suspect. 引用 @TheAtlantic：Exclusive: Another prestigious award has gone to a writer who seems to have used AI as the crisis of trust in the literary world intensifies, @vauhinivara reports: https://t.co
Well, so much for the notion that the "deal" that the Trump administration did with the UK after "Liberation day" would give the US a leg up over China in the UK market ... 引用 @johnarnold：The UK is a relatively open auto market, with just 10% import tariffs and no quotas on both US and Chinese impo
a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically under-perform global trade b) that doesn't mean that the CNY doesn't have an impact on trade flows/ net exports -- China's surplus tends to expand when exports outperform global trade, while 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Th
Grok @Bot can research best prices and buy things for you 引用 @Teslaconomics：Bro… you still open websites, add things to your cart, and type in your credit card info just to buy something online? I just text my @bot what I want, and it handles everything. Literally finds it, checks out, places the
Shower thought this AM: Some people developing AI seem to view building a “digital god” or ushering in a new species in almost religious terms. I believe some of that conviction is sincere. But I also suspect there’s a marketing angle to giving these systems an identity and
Power On: Apple spent a decade losing the smart home. Now it has a plan to compete: HomeView, a new Apple TV and HomePod mini, and LG-built accessories. Tuesday’s unveiling is about protecting the iPhone as much as outfitting your house. https://t.co/IeYYsXC1J2
Prob normalization more than anything but the timing of these articles amidst market narratives/fears is always uncanny "AI-related debt issuance globally dropped to $23bn in September, less than half the amount raised in the previous month, according to data compiled by Morgan https://t.co/dWBWhdE
作者指出，AI 实验室占总算力的份额关系到推理算力的测算，并以假设的 100 单位算力为例：若 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 使用 50 单位，其中 40% 用于推理，则推理算力为 20 单位。Marvell Technology 高管 David Lazovsky 称，数据中心基础设施中用于推理的比例 3 年前为三分之一，如今超过 60%，未来 2-3 年将迅速接近 90%。
Hut 8建设数据中心并与英伟达签订15年租约，英伟达作为租户以其信用支持建设融资，随后将空间交由Lambda安装GPU并出租。引用的SemiAnalysis称，该安排涉及约115K台Rubin GPU销售、Lambda收入约10%的分成，以及一个704 MW供电园区第7至第15年的空间；互联排队时间为4至7年。
The two worst things for society Both called DCs Diet Coke Datacenters
PODCAST: "Is China Controlling the World’s Oil Market?" Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the global oil market, Iran, President Trump, and what Beijing is up to. https://t.co/eU1Effb0s5
Another great MacroTalk with @AahanPrometheus this week covering: - The telling market response to the OpenAI News - How the Fed tightening cycle may be more than planned - What the bending LLM revenue S-curve means for macro Check it out! https://t.co/AqMEIEVPoI
The market is one big bet on AI based on hope for parabolic growth. That's a troubling situation when spending growth is looking increasingly linear. On @CNBCOvertime with @MelissaLeeCNBC yesterday to close out the week: https://t.co/1Btt8AHbPq
Anyone who has been in the VC world for more than a minute knows well that ARR is not close to the same as actual revenue.
With domestic sales of ~ 20m (absent a new incentive program) it isn't clear if export demand alone and keep investment in the auto sector at its current, quite elevated levels -- looks like auto investment will be a drag on 27 growth, but I guess with China you never know 2/2
We are told US treasury's are substantially outperforming other DM sovereign markets. If true why is the Treasury considering selling less of them? Wouldn't you want to take advantage of the relative strength? I would
以前我们买手机看哪家的照相功能好，未来我们买手机看哪家的端侧AI强
Electricity production is the best metric for the true strength of any large-scale economy imo 引用 @a16z：Energy capacity = economic capacity, in one chart There are no low electricity, rich countries https://t.co/DTCmjh3kwv
Looks like one of you posted on $RDDT WSB… with a $1M $AAOI position. I’m laughing at the comments, even more amusing when my name pops up Might still be early if people think there’s “no moat” in lasers and that AOI makes no money. (wait and see Q2 2027) https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf
Thank you @PrefShares for engaging with a constructive and thoughtful response. (anyone curious to read my original piece, go here: https://t.co/6a3fT1bER8) Let me take your points in turn. Retail. I like Amazon’s retail business too, and I agree there are losses buried in 引用 @PrefShares：Some th
The OpenAI & Anthropic S-Curve Problem News of lower OpenAI revenue (and hastily ‘leaked’ end-’26 guidance), even as they picked up significant share clearly shows a transition from parabolic to linear industry revenue growth ahead. https://t.co/EUji9tuxSA https://t.co/vISrY7BAzr
NEW ODD LOTS: AI Is Upending The World Of Mathematics @tracyalloway and I talk to Justin Solomon, associate dean for engineering education at MIT, about the state of both math and math education, as OpenAI rolls out proof after proof https://t.co/E7tlGs5uvw
标普500财报季开启，LSEplc对3Q26的盈利增长预估为30.6%，高于年初的15%。