X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
The debate over imbalances is sometimes viewed as a repeat of old debate -- but that ignores the sheer scale of Asia's surplus ... as well as a very different composition of the associated financial outflows 4/4
Is there something other than this tweet tanking the AI stocks today? 引用 @elonmusk：@chamath Yikes
Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, the last scheduled remarks by a Fed official before policymakers go quiet ahead of their Oct. 27-28 meeting https://t.co/Av5iYVsyTQ
Mark your calendars! The 2027 economic release schedule is now available. Check out what’s coming at https://t.co/dg4RLWgElx https://t.co/H8r3JmDNJM
做技术最常说的话是为何要逆势做，23年到现在的美股，中间所有的指数空头一直在逆势做，短期看着很正确，而4年却一直没把趋势做对
时间久了我们会发现美股就是涨涨跌跌，长期向上，然而中间的过程，每年都有人跑出来唱空，跌10%会有人出来唱跌30%，年内指数破几次新高就有几次有人出来猜顶，猜错了反正等下次新高还能继续猜。
今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。 至于美股，今天和美债利率是一起下跌，走出了衰退行情，千变万化😀 https://t.co/pDpjmd50bE
三个指数的估值：SOX, RSP, NDX NDX比较有意思，是最低的，即使和22年比，都没高出很多 https://t.co/4IbvTC6KNp
AI developers are committing substantial cash to secure reliable power years before the capacity earns revenue. Utilities should use that willingness to finance new supply, with minimum payments and exit protections that leave the requesting customer responsible for the https://t.co/4ZYDrxKqF4
一则评论认为，Anthropic全部“有约束力”的基础设施相关承诺，预计对应2027年560亿美元、2028年860亿美元的算力支出。评论称，相比没有时间考量、也未区分固定付款与里程碑付款的5000亿美元总额，这一估算没那么令人担忧。
9 月成屋销售同比下降 2.2%，较 8 月 2.5% 的降幅略有改善，但连续第二个月处于负值区间 https://t.co/55qIo2PGfM 原文： September existing home sales fell 2.2% year/year, a slight improvement from August’s 2.5% decline, but remaining in negative territory for a second consecutive month https://t.co/55qIo2PGfM
有谁还记得老马在9月底还说美光值1.2～2万亿甚至更高市值的公司。这两天老马先是整体给了存储一巴掌，然后今天再单独塞给美光一颗甜枣。 https://t.co/jbNd42GNkj 引用 @qinbafrank：也聊聊美光的财报，为何财报很爆股价波澜不惊？1、先看下财报要点： 1）财报依然很强劲，营收和利润规模已进入全新量级，毛利率达到传统半导体难以想象的水平，SCA+押金大幅提升业绩可见度。对下一季的指引也很乐观（营收、EPS大幅超预期）。 https://t.co/lI8XvLG9sg
欧洲委员会周三正式寻求将甲烷报告规则推迟一年。推文称，此前委员会经历了犹豫、内部争执和拖延，后续还需就这项调整进行谈判。
Made with @Grok @Imagine 引用 @keepgoingAnnie：For those who didn't want the headache here is the same video, but removing the added effects so the light flashing isn't happening anymore or the harsh coloration. I hope this version is more enjoyable for those who share the same problem. Thanks for let
谷歌10年期债券5.9%回报 META10年期债券6.2%回报 亚麻10年期债券6%回报 美债10年期5.2%回报 标普平均每年10%，从资产配置这个角度看，债券会再次成为香饽饽的资产，但不代表美股就一定要跌，参考80年代的高利率和美股同涨，是时候考验公司如何应对高融资成本的时候了。当利率在高位稳定下来之后，科技股仍然是最受欢迎的，为何？因为ROIC高，低ROIC的公司不如买债券。 上一次高利率真的要回到近20年前了。从个人角度，对于稳定现金流有追求的，相对低风险需求的投资人，请考虑增配债券，但别乱碰TLT
美国9月CPI数据是市场关注焦点，克利夫兰联储实时预测显示，广义CPI环比和核心CPI同比低于市场预期。文章认为，核心CPI走势更能反映通胀压力是否扩散，并指出广义CPI超预期走强、核心CPI环比偏离0.2%预期，以及油价、AI产业融资担忧等因素可能加剧市场波动。
是这样，对于资产配置的影响会很大 美股的分歧也会更大 https://t.co/KEbTkBaSD4 引用 @queue_ct：@TJ_Research 30Y 美债接近 6%，不一定要死守美股了 操作的好的话，债券的回报率会高于股市
作者结合摩根大通、高盛、花旗和富国三季度财报，从居民消费、企业信贷和AI融资三个角度梳理美国经济状况。摩根大通信用卡消费额增长10%，净核销率为1.27%；摩根大通、花旗和富国平均贷款分别同比增长10%、12%和11%。高盛称客户算力需求超过供给，为融资安排带来机会，同时会审慎承销并控制资本承诺；摩根大通称AI融资需求和项目储备仍活跃，交易节奏受估值和市场条件影响。
Inverse correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 persists https://t.co/B25HJxdFMu
Buying conditions for vehicles, houses and large household durables sank in latest @UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey, largely due to higher prices and borrowing costs https://t.co/whULI1VjQr
Since the start of the current bull market on Oct. 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has seen 124 new all-time closing highs (note lone record high in 2022 occurred on Jan. 3, prior to the start of the bull market) https://t.co/wBkFucEDIA
For week ended 10/9/26, large-cap ETFs led equity inflows, while aggregate bond funds recorded largest inflows within fixed income; thematic strategies experienced largest overall outflows @DataArbor https://t.co/M5QpRP6Rdi
CHART OF THE DAY: Economic pain alone may force Tehran -- or may not -- into softening its red lines. I don't know. What we know is the pain is very real. According to new IMF estimates, Iran will suffer in 2026 the biggest GDP contraction in nearly 40 years, down 7.6% y-on-y. https://t.co/V193k2Mv8
Looking forward to joining @BrianSozzi on @YahooFinance this morning around 9:35am ET
Kicking off Day 3 at #NABE2026 with @NelaRichardson discussing the shifting AI and talent paradigm focusing on how AI is shaping the demand for « tasks » — great collaboration between @ADP and @DigEconLab https://t.co/wv2MPndpST
当下的市场估值扩张已让位于EPS兑现 和强劲未来指引，而即将到来的三季度财报是当前市场最大的基本面变量，财报的核心意义在于验证AI盈利能否继续上修、抵消高利率与地缘压力，从而维持市场“韧性”。只要商业化和盈利指引能继续大超预期，AI主线就能持续。 多谢@Mercy_okx 引用 @Mercy_okx：财报明明“超预期”，股价却跌了。到底超的是谁的预期？ 梅西最近找了不少老师请教：接下来的美股财报季，到底该怎么看、怎么找机会？ 平时主要交易 BTC、ETH 的朋友，对资金、情绪和宏观都不陌生。但到了美股财报季，还需要看懂公司交出的这份成绩单。想找密码，先把这几件事弄清楚👇 1️⃣ h
Hiring slowed marginally for the first time in eight weeks with private payrolls adding an average of 24,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sep. 26 per @adpresearch https://t.co/XkVIvgPTFI
微软上次财报到现在，前半段硬件涨很好，有人问我微软为何那么弱？我说财报后大涨横盘不回调已经很强了。 还是那个问题，持股没有耐心，看到别的板块涨，自己手里的不动就忍不住。现在硬件回调，手里拿硬件的可能又觉得软件香饽饽了。 引用 @TJ_Research：$MSFT 再有一个月就又要发财报了😀今年期待ATH
India mulls even more coal-fired power generation (The country is the world's 2nd largest coal consumer, only behind China, accounting for ~15% of global demand) https://t.co/6ZJkqapFGM
算上今天， 半导体一周跌了10%，MAG7涨1%，等权横盘 半导体过去一个月涨0.9%，MAG7涨6.6%，等权跌1.2%，银行板块跌10%，国防跌8% 半导体的特色就是波动大，从正常波动讲，银行和国防的跌幅可怕多了。 ASTRA, DOTS, MUSE, COPILOT。智能体落地刚刚开始 引用 @Talk666666：@TJ_Research 桃总明天出期视频吧😙今天soxx有点scary
分析师预计，9月CPI中的能源价格将大幅上涨，推高整体CPI；核心价格则预计涨幅较温和。
做下半年展望时聊过，我认为EPS会大于PE的噪音（加息，模型公司上市，中期选举），几次直播里我也聊过其实我对于大体量公司连续上市非常敏感（通常都是市场的顶部信号），但我们所在的当下市场是前所未有的，大科技，千亿营收的公司增速仍然可以达到20%+，这是很夸张的。
Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation gets, the harder it is to be the one to stand up there and try to explain why things aren't weird. https://t.co/mrVeRDoudU 引用 @atrupar：this is an SNL cold open come to life. she can barely read https:/
Barcelona showed up ready to build 🦞. The road to #NVIDIAGTC Berlin is officially underway. https://t.co/SumnDGk4WE
Congrats! CEOs & execs posting to the public directly on 𝕏 is the best way to get your message out and drive product sales. Vastly more powerful and effective than a press release. 引用 @sundarpichai：Gemini 4 Argon is here. It’s available globally today for developers and enterprises in the paid
True, this is a very big deal 引用 @SawyerMerritt：Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note: "The part of the SpaceX story that we believe holds the greatest growth potential, and that is being largely ignored/not contemplated by investors, is the Distributed Inference Cloud. Investors are alr
Starship 40’s return to base 引用 @SpaceX：The first Starship to return to its launch site, Ship 40's journey took it across air, space, and sea. Now that it is vertical alongside three other Starships in a Megabay at Starbase, it will provide first-of-its-kind data on a flown Starship heatshield, Rap
10-13-2026 ($) •SpaceX Buys More Spectrum •Musk and Market Structure •Distributed Cellular https://t.co/JfXQgFM2Tu
updating a bit on the labs (Anthropic and OpenAI to be specific) full piece: https://t.co/5e75aXG0zy https://t.co/U6DXfJR9sM
Bloomberg puts a theoretical 1GW AI data center in Abilene at ~$30bn. Its ten cost categories actually sum $17.1bn for chips and servers, and ~$13bn for everything else. My read is that the hardware assumption is likely closer to Hopper-era economics vs. the latest generation. https://t.co/KjTa26XLj