Trump claims both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an “energy ceasefire”
Trump claims both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an “energy ceasefire” Now where have I heard that before? https://t.co/moM0P4XgOa
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X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分2626 X·宏观AI 评分3939 3/ She prefers "smaller, more frequent" moves to avoid bigger hikes later.
3/ She prefers "smaller, more frequent" moves to avoid bigger hikes later. Her neutral-rate estimate is among the Fed's highest, and she says if she's wrong, it's too low. Also, higher yields are "absolutely not" a substitute for Fed hikes https://t.co/Amj2pqRriQ
X·宏观AI 评分3030 2/ Her take: Yes, rate hikes won't open the Strait of Hormuz or immediately slow the data-center…
2/ Her take: Yes, rate hikes won't open the Strait of Hormuz or immediately slow the data-center buildout. But they might make other firms "think twice" about expanding in this environment, leaving scarce parts or supplies to data centers and easing pressures at the margins.
X·宏观AI 评分2020 What does a Fed hawk listen for on a factory floor?
What does a Fed hawk listen for on a factory floor? At industrial-hardware maker Jergens in Cleveland, Beth Hammack heard that price has fallen to third in importance on customers' lists, behind quality and speed.
X·宏观AI 评分3333 Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点：
Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点： 引用 @EricBalchunas：The Stock Market Is Currently Out of Breadth But It's No Reason to Worry.. new from me on the latest worry being hurled at investors from the columnist class and what they aren't telling you: 1) over past 100 ye
X·宏观AI 评分55 Hey, NABE Annual Meeting attendees! We’re talking all things BEA data at our booth. Swing by for…
Hey, NABE Annual Meeting attendees! We’re talking all things BEA data at our booth. Swing by for the latest GDP stats and lots more. @nabe_econ https://t.co/QBhDvr0Iyo
X·宏观AI 评分5050 国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔呼吁成员国考虑进一步释放柴油储备
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在10月15日会议前，敦促成员国考虑从战略石油储备中进一步释放柴油。原文未说明拟释放的数量或具体执行安排。
X·宏观AI 评分2525 A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side…
A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE 引用 @DeItaone：ZELENSKIY SAYS TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS NEWS FOR HIM -AXIOS ZELENSKIY SAYS IF RUSSIANS AG
X·宏观AI 评分22 More on how the size of the question ahead has gotten so large here on the blog app:
More on how the size of the question ahead has gotten so large here on the blog app: https://t.co/bifKj6KlvA https://t.co/Zd3Ku1pPin
X·宏观AI 评分4545 红杉两年前提出的6000亿美元问题，如今已变成3万亿美元问题
红杉两年前提出的6000亿美元问题，如今已变成3万亿美元问题。相关支出规模扩大之际，实际收入仅增加略多于1000亿美元，前瞻性需求与现实收入之间的差距已扩大。
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios
Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios 1️⃣ Favorable: gradual erosion of US Dollar along with creation of a diverse global multipolar monetary ecosystem 2️⃣ Worrisome: sudden collapse of USD before other systems are mature and robust: global liquidity shortage @nabe_econ https://t.co/OlUuV5
X·宏观AI 评分6262 泽连斯基与加拿大、芬兰领导人及北约秘书长讨论特朗普宣布的能源停火
泽连斯基称，他与加拿大总理卡尼、芬兰总统斯图布及北约秘书长吕特讨论了特朗普宣布的能源停火，乌克兰支持停火，并表示俄罗斯也应支持。乌方正在等待美方提供细节；原作者补充称，泽连斯基没有与特朗普本人讨论此事，并提出俄罗斯进一步施压时乌方是否会减少对能源设施的打击仍是问题。
X·宏观AI 评分88 I really enjoyed this chart and history book by
I really enjoyed this chart and history book by @MebFaber For people who like macro and market history, it’s a really cool physical resource. https://t.co/V6n5Iqv5Ld
X·宏观AI 评分2929 Moscow’s pledge to stop hitting Ukrainian energy assets carried the same weight as its boosted…
Moscow’s pledge to stop hitting Ukrainian energy assets carried the same weight as its boosted diesel exports commitment. 引用 @FirstSquawk：RUSSIA HIT KHARKIV’S MAIN POWER PLANT HOURS AFTER TRUMP ANNOUNCED AN ‘ENERGY CEASEFIRE’, WITH ZELENSKY CONFIRMING THE HIT ON CHP-5 — A MAJOR HEAT-AND-POWER FACIL
X·宏观AI 评分5050 特朗普威胁若基辅不停止袭击俄炼油厂，将终止Purl
特朗普威胁称，如果基辅不停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，就将终止Purl。Purl是由北约管理、基辅的盟友购买美国制造武器并供应给乌克兰的计划。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Remember two weeks ago when risk premium sceptics were looking at ACM and saying risk premiums were…
Remember two weeks ago when risk premium sceptics were looking at ACM and saying risk premiums were falling not rising. Where are the sceptics today. Using one model is stupid but thinking risk premiums were falling back then was even stupiderer https://t.co/KnWYUsuzHk
X·宏观AI 评分1616 5/5 Diversification across company names and diversification across investment themes aren't…
5/5 Diversification across company names and diversification across investment themes aren't necessarily the same. Concentration risk means half the index is exposed to the AI theme. Half is not. The choice is not necessarily to go all-in on AI or all-in against it. It is
X·宏观AI 评分2727 4/5 Concentration is only part of the story.
4/5 Concentration is only part of the story. Over the past year, the rolling 6-month correlation (green) has turned slightly negative. Another sign that the headline index conceals two different market experiences. https://t.co/HDiCAqPo3a
X·宏观AI 评分3939 1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else.
1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%. https://t.co/owS3WGJiom
X·宏观AI 评分44 This is a funny tweet. Because do people actually associate and Thiel with having been prescient…
This is a funny tweet. Because do people actually associate @pmarca and Thiel with having been prescient about AI? The former I associate with b2b SaaS. The latter with kind of Silicon Valley woo ideas. With Elon it’s more complex, but Brian has a substantive point to make. 引用 @brianchau57：Bay Area
X·宏观AI 评分22 On the flipside, it’s not obvious to me that the doomers have better arguments. But they’re…
On the flipside, it’s not obvious to me that the doomers have better arguments. But they’re definitely better at arguing, having sharpened the blade on message board the last 15 years.
X·宏观AI 评分1212 It would help if all their critics didn’t come off publicly sounding like this guy
It would help if all their critics didn’t come off publicly sounding like this guy https://t.co/L6Xntz6Ge1 引用 @MattZeitlin：i still don't really understand how AI can cause human extinction BUT i do become more convinced the doomers/ASI-is-coming people are right when i read the arguments against th
X·宏观AI 评分2323 .: “ is a legacy policy for . As children turn 18, they have a choice with their Trump Accounts.…
.@SecScottBessent: “@TrumpAccounts is a legacy policy for @POTUS. As children turn 18, they have a choice with their Trump Accounts. They can roll them into a more standard retirement account, let that money roll until they're 60 or 65, or they can take the money out and use it https://t.co/IrrzPIEP
X·宏观AI 评分3232 .: "Thirty-eight percent of American households have no exposure to our great equity market. wants…
.@SecScottBessent: "Thirty-eight percent of American households have no exposure to our great equity market. @POTUS wants to create an ownership society with @TrumpAccounts. For eligible children born during his term, Treasury is going to put a $1,000 seed investment in their https://t.co/xroPmMgmqX
X·宏观AI 评分3737 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
https://t.co/Wso4U7pWv4 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
X·宏观AI 评分1919 And its standard fiscal advice would more or less result in a much bigger current account surplus…
And its standard fiscal advice would more or less result in a much bigger current account surplus -- i.e. it wants China to rely more on exports (think the advice used to be a 7 pp consolidation over 10ys, though that good downplayed for s-term cyclical reasons in the last A4)
X·宏观AI 评分2222 The IMF's standard approach has a hard time with a country with massive savings and a public sector…
The IMF's standard approach has a hard time with a country with massive savings and a public sector that has real assets as well as large debts -- by all of the IMF's standard models, China's large augmented fiscal deficit should have generated a current account deficit ...
X·宏观AI 评分4747 对中国公共部门债务合并口径的争议：作者认为这会掩盖中央政府的财政空间
作者认为，将中国公共部门债务整体合并分析是一个分析错误，因为这会掩盖中央政府明显的财政空间：利率低、债务占GDP比重低于35%，且拥有大量金融资产。引用内容称，中国公共债务占GDP比重为122%，高于疫情前的74%；扩展口径财政赤字为GDP的10%，偿债支出占中央政府预算的19.2%。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Difficult for the fund to do but I hoped the fund would use this excellent paper to rethink its…
Difficult for the fund to do but I hoped the fund would use this excellent paper to rethink its fiscal advice and move away from the augmented debt/ augmented deficit and treat the LGFVs as financial institutions that might give rise to a bailout cost not as ordinary government
X·宏观AI 评分44 But key points in the essay were asserted not demonstrated -- this one for example
But key points in the essay were asserted not demonstrated -- this one for example "As cheap imports undercut traditional producers and provide low-cost inputs, labour and capital have shifted towards more productive industries" what industries are expanding on a scale able to
X·宏观AI 评分00 I do want to know more about Europe's increased production of electronic components (The firms…
I do want to know more about Europe's increased production of electronic components (The firms, sectors and scale)
X·宏观AI 评分1616 FT's Tej Parikh really stretched the industrial production data here to fit into into a narrative…
FT's Tej Parikh really stretched the industrial production data here to fit into into a narrative around market competition, creative destruction and moving upmarket -- the rise in pharma production? Ireland winning a game of tax competition the rise in optical equipment? https://t.co/me7tctXCBy
X·宏观AI 评分1111 I am sure this reads well and appeals to many "ango-saxon" readers (and certain circles on the…
I am sure this reads well and appeals to many "ango-saxon" readers (and certain circles on the continent) who are apostles of creative destruction and the migration of Western economies out of high end manufactures to services ... https://t.co/o8sFz6OCXu
X·宏观AI 评分1313 But as policy advice and an honest assessment of the China challenge I found it a bit thin -- suck…
But as policy advice and an honest assessment of the China challenge I found it a bit thin -- suck it up and move into higher value added niches doesn't cut it when China wants all those niches too, and has been quite successful in capturing many of them /end
X·宏观AI 评分11 Really great picture of Leela.
Really great picture of Leela. If you're wondering who Leela is, or why the artist put that funny blur on her, then you might have some reading to do. 引用 @theexileddraco："A Magic Trick" - Theft of Fire https://t.co/fXVBppcRRd
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Once again. The idea that AI is only improving rapidly in verifiable domains like math is looking…
Once again. The idea that AI is only improving rapidly in verifiable domains like math is looking suspect. 引用 @TheAtlantic：Exclusive: Another prestigious award has gone to a writer who seems to have used AI as the crisis of trust in the literary world intensifies, @vauhinivara reports: https://t.co
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Well, so much for the notion that the "deal" that the Trump administration did with the UK after…
Well, so much for the notion that the "deal" that the Trump administration did with the UK after "Liberation day" would give the US a leg up over China in the UK market ... 引用 @johnarnold：The UK is a relatively open auto market, with just 10% import tariffs and no quotas on both US and Chinese impo
X·宏观AI 评分1919 a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically…
a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically under-perform global trade b) that doesn't mean that the CNY doesn't have an impact on trade flows/ net exports -- China's surplus tends to expand when exports outperform global trade, while 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Th
X·科技公司AI 评分1515 Grok can research best prices and buy things for you
Grok @Bot can research best prices and buy things for you 引用 @Teslaconomics：Bro… you still open websites, add things to your cart, and type in your credit card info just to buy something online? I just text my @bot what I want, and it handles everything. Literally finds it, checks out, places the
X·科技公司AI 评分1313 Berlin, you look good in CUDA. 💚
Berlin, you look good in CUDA. 💚 #NVIDIAGTC is coming to town. We thought we’d say hello from the TV Tower. Spot it? Tag @NVIDIA and show us your view. #FestivalOfLights https://t.co/Wy0oiBisAb