X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
So by all means warn of the standard risks of protectionism -- but also don't ignore the unique scale and force of China's current export wave, and the distortions to global competition that flow out from China own unbalanced economy 5/5 https://t.co/XORjFTyQsC
Current growth rates in the European market (a market of say 11m cars ex UK) would bring Chinese exports to 3m in 2027 and 5m in 2028 ... forcing a massive retrenchment that would undermine capacity to actually invest and compete in the future 4/ https://t.co/Twet3xyvTY
沃什称，近期由AI带来的大规模投资激增并非偶然，而是“良好政策”的结果，并称AI繁荣可能是全球经济最重要的上行因素。他表示不预判会议，也不暗示10月FOMC讨论可能采取的行动。
沃什主席参加2026年国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团年会的炉边对话 观看直播：https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT 了解更多关于沃什主席：https://t.co/b8iRmcfSbS 原文： Chairman Warsh participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group Watch live: https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT Learn more about Chair
美国9月头条PPI环比跳升1.3%，同比升至6.3%，高于5.4%的共识预期；核心PPI环比上升0.7%，同比为5.0%，高于4.4%的共识预期。原文还称，美国10年期收益率降至5.06%。
美国9月PPI同比上涨6.3%、环比上涨1.3%，均超预期，能源价格单月上涨逾10%是主要推手。核心PPI同比和环比也均大幅超预期。
国际海事组织称，伊朗战争开始以来，波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡及阿曼湾发生逾110起航运袭击，遇袭船只中仅3艘沉没。过去约3周内发生了其中2起沉船事件。
尽管本周CPI与PPI都热于预期，十年期收益率仍下行。 原文： 10-year yield down despite CPI and PPI coming in hotter than expected this week. https://t.co/N4H2O0yLyN https://t.co/WePZzQYJj6 引用 @TheStalwart：We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trad
初请失业金升至19.9万，预期20.0万，前值19.8万；续请失业金171.0万，预期170.9万 原文： Initial jobless claims up to 199k vs. 200k est. & 198k prior; continuing claims at 1.710M vs. 1.709M est. & 1.714M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.3k), IL (+1.1k), & NJ (+0.9k); greatest decreases in HI (-0.3k), MI (-0.1k), & IA (-0.1k) ht
美国9月零售销售环比增长0.8%，剔除通胀后增长0.1%；核心销售增长0.1%，销量约为0。分项中汽油增长6.4%、家具增长1.3%、餐吧增长1.1%、健康增长0.7%，建材下降0.6%、体育用品下降0.5%。
Gregory Daco称，PPI通胀报告中的价格上涨幅度大、覆盖面广。能源是商品价格上涨的主要驱动因素，柴油价格迅速传导至机票和卡车运输价格；机械设备和酒店业利润率也上升。原文称能源推动了有记录以来幅度最大的商品价格上涨。
伊朗海军称，霍尔木兹海峡东部一艘被其认定为“违规”的油轮起火；该消息是否得到确认仍待观察。
No new UKMTO shipping attack repots today (yet) We've had at least one attack report virtually every day this month so far.
Once seen as a conduit for better global policy coordination because of its broader representation, the G20 has struggled in recent years to agree on a joint communiqué, let alone act as a conductor of collective action to address global challenges. Today's meeting in Thailand on https://t.co/4usIYN
After a solid run over the past year, the KBW Bank Index has retreated sharply from its August peak, falling nearly 14% [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/8CoY5kiiHC
PODCAST: Pleasure to join @Rory_Johnston for a discussion about the war, why oil prices didn't reach $200 a barrel, the global economy, Hormuz crossings, China and a lot more stuff. https://t.co/mRn6XSya27
Last round of Fed-speak before Warsh tonight and the October blackout. All of these comments were made Wednesday: Bowman (a few hours *before* CPI): "I don't feel any urgency... We really need to take some time and understand how things will evolve within the economy." Goolsbee
美国商业石油库存上周减少 1340 万桶，创 4 月以来最大单周降幅。库存下降由原油、柴油和“其他”产品推动，其中“其他”产品主要是 NGLs；原油库存低于过去 5 年同期低点，并在通常应累库的时段继续下降。
Under Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury’s @FinCENnews issued an Alert asking financial institutions to report potential Iranian regime abuse of religious charity networks, including diversion of religious tithes, or khums. The Iranian regime has been known to abuse ostensibly
Smart Tho aligning with the EU on plug in hybrids and battery electric vehicles currently means doing somewhat different things 引用 @FT：France and Germany to allow UK in EU car policy if it aligns on China tariffs https://t.co/yOtqTd2Q5m
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury disrupted Iran’s efforts to infiltrate the international financial system through an Iraqi bank that also supports Iran’s terrorist proxy militia groups. By dismantling these institutions—including offshore banks and shadow
中国对美出口近期快速增长，美元计价已回到特朗普第二任期初的水平。Robin Brooks称，中国贸易顺差急升，主要与对美国以外地区出口大幅增长有关，并认为这显示中国正加大出口、努力降低对美国的依赖。
And it isn't exactly a secret that China's exports to SE Asia include a lot of parts that are sent to ASEAN countries for final assembly to meet US demand to really cut its dependence on US China needs to find an alternative source of end demand -- and few EMs are big enough/ https://t.co/RCKR2yevh
Tho to be clear, without a 1 pp of GDP increase in gold imports by China in 2026 its surplus would be way up -- and the latest export and import numbers point to a substantial net export contribution in 26 even with that surge on gold imports ... so the 26 imbalance is actually https://t.co/HgnRaIHk
Kudos to the IMF for not forecasting China's current account surplus away in the latest WEO, and for recognizing that its past forecasts (which had imbalances narrowing over time) have not materialized 1/ https://t.co/bkRdS6yncT
El-Erian转述《金融时报》称，为知名数据中心融资发行的债券近几周价格已跌至面值以下，相关中心将由Meta、英伟达、Oracle等公司入驻。原文还称，投资者正在抛售所谓的neocloud债务，并附有链接：https://t.co/08RzREOkUT
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
Heads up that we're doing a rare Twitter space tonight with @DonMiami3 and @RealJohnGaltFla. Stop in, listen to our chat, say hi, disagree vehemently, insist that I'm paid by both the CIA and Tehran—it'll be a blast! 引用 @DonMiami3：Join us with @Rory_Johnston next Thursday for macro happy hour on o
9月CPI和PPI数据推算显示，核心PCE月涨幅预计约为0.34%，或创1月以来最高。核心PCE同比涨幅或从8月的3%升至3.1%，3个月年化涨幅或从2.0%升至2.9%。
截至10月9日当周，可调利率按揭占按揭申请的10.5%，为一年最大份额，反映负担能力担忧与更高借贷成本 @MBAmortgage https://t.co/LRF3zPHIuF 原文： Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 10.5% of mortgage applications for week ended Oct. 9, the largest share in a year, reflecting affordability concerns and higher borrowing costs @MBAmortgage https://
AI驱动的定价压力在9月持续，计算机软件价格同比上涨28%，创下纪录。
Bloomberg数据显示，9月按12个月计涨幅超过3%的CPI分项占比为48%，低于8月的51%。按六个月年化计算，该占比从43%降至38%。
在中东，我们正看到拥有大量（非常昂贵的）军事装备与真正拥有军事力量之间的巨大差距。https://t.co/svbbmPh3W2 原文： In the Middle East, we're seeing the vast difference between having lots of (very expensive) military kit, and actually having military power. https://t.co/svbbmPh3W2
CNY generally strengthened v the USD in q3, so there is no particular reason export conversion dried up -- but definitely not seeing flows of the expected size in the state banks right now. 4/4
Where did China's $130b plus September trade surplus go? as of now, it a bit of a mystery There is no settlement data yet, and nothing showed up at the PBOC. Guess the market really did play a decisive role in CNY valuation :) 1/ https://t.co/Kf4sArxZqO
俄罗斯地方当局称，大规模无人机袭击击中梁赞炼油厂并引发火灾，该炼油厂位于莫斯科以南约200km。原文称，这是美国总统特朗普声称基辅与莫斯科已就能源达成休战以来，首起得到确认的俄罗斯炼油厂遇袭事件。
In an interview with the FT, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country will restart strikes on Russia’s oil refineries. “The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” Zelenskyy said. https://t.co/y95QRcuc5T
前美国财政部官员布拉德·塞策表示，中国在隐藏美元方面做得比摆脱美元更好。
监管副主席鲍曼（Bowman）关于硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）事件后监管现代化的讲话：https://t.co/1cboQnCXKz 观看直播：https://t.co/bzEEBXfuyT 了解更多关于监管副主席鲍曼的信息：https://t.co/tWe5lT37NX 原文： Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on supervisory modernization after Silicon Valley Bank: https://t.co/1cboQnCXKz Watch live: https://t.c
Rory Johnston正在制作图表，整理UKMTO确认的霍尔木兹、波斯湾和阿曼湾航运袭击事件，并叠加估算的霍尔木兹石油流量。原文还提到“UNGO”的巧合，并附有链接：https://t.co/13kaE0qDMb