X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Regular reminder that this kind of thinking has always been wrong. https://t.co/HmwjhAmYQH 引用 @Forbes：Jeff Bezos Claims AI Could Allow For 3-Day Workweeks And One-Income Families https://t.co/cpgZl69ut8 https://t.co/00QCFHBOq5
Many nasty replies to my piece yesterday on flatlining model revenue b/c they were highly confident OpenAI ARR surged to 70bln based based on an unsourced leak. Lots mocking the use of @tickerplus as an estimate. Turns it was... 50bln. smh https://t.co/MQWQAAMi79 https://t.co/X47HrfOpom 引用 @BobEU
FT: OpenAI ARR比先前市场预估的少了200亿，市场下跌 这种新闻怎么理解？ 1. 首先ARR不是营收，你可以拿1个月去年化，1周去年化，或者1天去年化，除非内部改标准（比如上年用1个月年化，今年用1天年化），那就是很严重的欺诈，不然只要标准一样没问题，看的是同比增速。当然上市后有监管的衡量方法 2.
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低迷一些，SET UP好
There's a lot of worries that AI will take the "fun' out of shopping. IDK, maybe it will, but it doesn't have to. I want people to have fun using @Haiku_Zone to discover things they never would have otherwise come across. 引用 @401Casey：Joe let me beta test this and it’s the most delightful applicati
Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, on the Oil Ground Up podcast here: https://t.co/6Vpk6hKs0U 引用 @HormuzReport：BREAKING: A senior Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran huge
At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 for OpenAI+Anthropic *together* to reach 1tln in ARR.
Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds through 9/30. Cover well. Go max long for alpha a bit above current level using a complicated options strategy recognizing the vol implications of the CTD flip. And people think
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
I've seen some people say that the math solutions are just pre-IPO "hype." Maybe that's true in the sense that they're a signal to investors that in a lot of industries, OpenAI will be in a position to capture some of the really big gains from this technology.
Theoretical math is largely just an intellectual pursuit. But there's a lot of money to be made in areas like pharma or chip design. And it may make sense for OAI and Anth to get out of the token-selling business and just beat everyone else to commercially viable breakthroughs.
THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussion. The best public models will always be far behind what the labs can work with internally. Think about what this means for intelligence-intensive industries. https://t.co/CjZYvil3SQ
Expired: AI will take your job. Tired: A human working with AI will take your job. Wired: A human working with an unreleased model at an AI company will take your job. 引用 @TheStalwart：THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussi
One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's global trade. Domestic demand growth doesn't spill over into demand for European -- other other -- goods anymore. Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export https://t.co/fkbc3D02qv
The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right thing for China's trade partners to ask for can be found here. Europe cares more about whether China is moving ever further away from external balance than about how China
China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve. And China has a problem with external balance (an unusually large surplus), which is a structural problem of the kind that exchange rate adjustment on its own would address. To
"Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances" Guess the PBOC agrees with Secretary Bessent -- who said something similar at Ashville 1/2 引用 @fbermingham：China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of scheduled trade
有经验数据支持，2023年以来中国出口增速相对全球贸易增长的加快，与2022年以来人民币贬值有关；汇率对出口的影响存在滞后。
And to be clear, the immediate issue isn't bringing China's surplus is down -- it is limiting the pace at which it rises. the 07 to 12 RMB appreciation was in fact central to limiting the nominal rise in China's surplus and facilitating adjustment back then 2/2 https://t.co/e2zzeAZSgq
Very consistent with the @DKThomp point that the physical buildout of AI/ "SI in Trump land" computer infrastructure is much more visible in the actual data than the results of actual AI use 2/2
Starlink is licensed in over 165 countries and has spent five years complying with every single law and requirement of the government of India, so why still no license? Is Ambani the real boss of India? 引用 @malpani：The government is more interested in protecting the interests of crony capitalists
And Grok @Bot only gets better from here 🚀 🚀 You could build an entire company made of Grok Bots! 引用 @MiaAI_lab：Grok @bot might be the most important AI release of 2026. I'm just blown away by what it can do now. A few days ago it felt like a niche toy and I didn't use it much... but now?! It's
This is part of our broader effort to make the systems we all rely upon more secure and resilient. That work will take time: the Anthropic Cyber Mission will expand and change as we learn what works, alongside our partners in the public and private sectors.
This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy
Context to anyone who didn't know - Robin Ren has been absolutely instrumental in Tesla, especially making Tesla entering China work! Robin is a long-time college friend of Elon (the only one that was better at physics than him) and an entrepreneur in the clean-tech sector. https://t.co/ABaNMUC7ni
You can debate whether you believe their forecast on capex, labs, etc. but Coatue always does a nice job framing some of the biggest trends in the market very simply. The size of the compute financing & capex wave relative to the broader economy and prior cycles relative to the https://t.co/H5Yeb64
Gigabrains help me out: GS puts required annual hyperscale AI revenue at $526bn, based on average annual capex across 2026 and 2027 and a 20% hyperscaler ROIC. I assume OpenAI and Anthropic have similar ARR, GW capacity and inference share, with $20bn of revenue per blended GW
The new Alexa Tablets are absurd for their price points and compete with the iPad Air. 引用 @chriswelch：Amazon is starting over with tablets. The company's new Alexa Tablets correct past mistakes — they now include Google apps and the Play Store — with a better design that maintains very low prices.
Episode 2 of the Power On podcast is out! I dig into John Ternus’s first month as CEO, why layoffs are possible, his focus on design, and Tim Cook still being very much involved. Plus, Meta’s new VR headset shows what Apple’s Vision Pro should have been. https://t.co/isoSPf5C75
I’d love economists to take a crack at this theory that the US is experiencing a mini-Dutch Disease effect from AI. My big-picture thesis about AI economics right now is that while the discussion about AI safety and existential risk is important, AI’s construction is changing 引用 @johnarnold：This.
In defense tech, they don't say "recurring revenue." They say "attritable," and I think that's beautiful.
- Welcome home = obvious smart home reference. - The Apple logo was created with threads of yarn/fabric = Thread, the smart home protocol linking everything together 引用 @markgurman：.@chriswelch will be on scene https://t.co/SN53KJ52Tu
Perica and Apple Music head Oliver Schusser are the two eventual successors to Eddy Cue. Either one or the other or both together. 引用 @markgurman：NEW: Apple is naming Steve Smith its new M&A chief, shifting longtime dealmaking head Adrian Perica to focus exclusively on his responsibilities overseei
Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G
I was a day early, never trust rumor mill adjusted run rate figures without any detail! https://t.co/pvXWvkvbzj 引用 @ShanuMathew93：How the ARRs are being calculated https://t.co/B31rmznnSE
It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to see what Apple does here. 引用 @theblaze：Trump says anyone using the term “Artificial Intelligence” instead of calling it Super Intelligence is “THE ENEMY!” https://t.co/gdokou57if
三个大事件和一个趋势，让X平台在政治、地缘、科技AI和金融这些高度重视时效的领域，越来越成为全球范围内的信息中心，也越来越成为全球最有影响力的社交媒体平台（没有之一）。三个大事件：24年美国总统大选、25年关税战、26年伊朗战争（伊朗最高领袖、总统、议长、外长都启用X账号发声）； https://t.co/PK6ERauCQS 引用 @qinbafrank：这个功能太实用了，Grok https://t.co/9hfMbsT6NU
Great analysis by a high IQ person in the industry. 引用 @hsu_steve：AI Boom or Bust? – Manifold #122 Are we in an AI bubble? Analysis of AI CapEx, revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $ TRILLIONS per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global soft
It's made to sound like an accident, yet China was waiting to grab the parts as soon as they reached Hong Kong. Doesn't seem accidental at all. 引用 @business：China managed to get a hold of parts from an F-35 stealth fighter jet after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment t