X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Asked ChatGPT if there was anything urgently relevant published over the past two hours to explain this crude spike and it was like ~ "huh, weird—feels like vibes"
美国军方称，过去7天其协助载有超过1亿桶原油的油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，折合日均超过1400万桶。该口径不包括绕行运输。
布伦特原油近月期货价格触及每桶110美元，为自5月以来首次。原文附有链接：https://t.co/ivboigZqJA
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
布伦特期货自5月以来首次触及110美元，期限结构走强。原文将市场变化与沙特石油基础设施受损传闻，以及美伊和沙特胡塞冲突升级担忧联系起来。完整报告见 https://t.co/SZPfYPh58M
Fascinating thread 引用 @jstatistic：What’s behind the saw-tooth in Canadian Treasury holdings and money-fund repo to Canadian banks? Mostly the well-known window-dressing by dealers around reporting dates. But I think it masks the bigger takeaway. https://t.co/4hKy9eRu8o
非能源商品价格持续通胀，越来越难归咎于关税。耶鲁预算实验室追踪数据显示，美国平均关税税率较2025年8月峰值下降43%，不计2025年4月的混乱期。最高法院针对IEEPA关税的裁决、要求遵循程序的关税法律及对可负担性的政治关注均产生了影响。
按三月移动平均，餐饮酒吧零售销售增长在10月升至1.0%，为逾一年最强增速 https://t.co/IaR1flDT2Q 原文： On a three-month moving average basis, retail sales growth for restaurants and bars increased 1.0% in October, marking its strongest growth rate in more than a year https://t.co/IaR1flDT2Q
CEO信心指数2026年第四季度下降6点至46，降至2025年第二季度以来最低。乐观情绪下降可能反映地缘紧张局势加剧和油价走高。
按ISM方法调整后，帝国州与费城制造业指数10月均扩张，但两份调查故事不同：帝国走强，费城走弱 https://t.co/ZW5qEkP814 原文： Adjusted for ISM methodology, both the Empire and Philly Manufacturing Indexes expanded in October, but the two surveys told different stories: Empire strengthened, while Philly weakened https://t.co/ZW5qEkP814
ODD LOTS新一期采访德国外交关系委员会成员、马克龙前顾问Shahin Vallée，讨论法国政治危机转为债务危机以及欧元危机2.0的风险。
本该是强化10月加息预期的时候，但沃什却没有这么做。今天在泰国曼谷与IMF总裁展开炉边谈话的时候，沃什表示2026年剩余的两次议息会议将是形成明确政策判断的关键时刻。因为前两天9月cpi和ppi的强势，大家想通过沃什的讲话看出有没有透露出“加息的紧迫性”，但他没有说“通胀风险正在加剧、可能需要进一 引用 @qinbafrank：如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
So by all means warn of the standard risks of protectionism -- but also don't ignore the unique scale and force of China's current export wave, and the distortions to global competition that flow out from China own unbalanced economy 5/5 https://t.co/XORjFTyQsC
Current growth rates in the European market (a market of say 11m cars ex UK) would bring Chinese exports to 3m in 2027 and 5m in 2028 ... forcing a massive retrenchment that would undermine capacity to actually invest and compete in the future 4/ https://t.co/Twet3xyvTY
沃什称，近期由AI带来的大规模投资激增并非偶然，而是“良好政策”的结果，并称AI繁荣可能是全球经济最重要的上行因素。他表示不预判会议，也不暗示10月FOMC讨论可能采取的行动。
沃什主席参加2026年国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团年会的炉边对话 观看直播：https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT 了解更多关于沃什主席：https://t.co/b8iRmcfSbS 原文： Chairman Warsh participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group Watch live: https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT Learn more about Chair
美国PPI环比上涨1.3%，为2022年3月以来最快；核心PPI环比上涨0.5%。商品价格环比上涨2.6%，其中食品上涨1.2%、能源上涨10.8%；服务上涨0.8%，其中运输上涨3.4%、贸易上涨1.4%。PPI同比上涨6.3%，较此前高0.7个百分点；核心PPI同比上涨5.0%，较此前高0.2个百分点。
全文：@IEA关于战略石油储备的公报。美国不会再获得额外的1亿桶…… 原文： FULL STATEMENT: @IEA communiqué on strategic oil reserves. The US isn't getting the additional 100m barrels it requested, only a vague mention that total amount of stocks released would exceed the original total (approved in March) of 400m. But that excess isn
IEA同意完成释出剩余1亿桶石油，并称3月宣布的石油释放规模将超过4亿桶。IEA还表示，柴油释出属于此前商定的约1亿桶原油及燃料紧急储备释出计划。
美国9月头条PPI环比跳升1.3%，同比升至6.3%，高于5.4%的共识预期；核心PPI环比上升0.7%，同比为5.0%，高于4.4%的共识预期。原文还称，美国10年期收益率降至5.06%。
自大衰退到2019年，美国劳动生产率增长令人失望，但自2019年以来增长…… 原文： From the Great Recession until 2019, U.S. labor productivity growth disappointed but, since 2019, growth has picked up to twice the 2010s rate: around 2%. In today's post, the author uses data from firms’ 10-K filings to unpack this recent acceleration. ht
美国9月PPI同比上涨6.3%、环比上涨1.3%，均超预期，能源价格单月上涨逾10%是主要推手。核心PPI同比和环比也均大幅超预期。
国际海事组织称，伊朗战争开始以来，波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡及阿曼湾发生逾110起航运袭击，遇袭船只中仅3艘沉没。过去约3周内发生了其中2起沉船事件。
尽管本周CPI与PPI都热于预期，十年期收益率仍下行。 原文： 10-year yield down despite CPI and PPI coming in hotter than expected this week. https://t.co/N4H2O0yLyN https://t.co/WePZzQYJj6 引用 @TheStalwart：We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trad
9月帝国制造业指数升至25.5，高于预期的12.0和前值7.6。新订单指数升至23.2，前值为2.0；出货指数升至13.1，前值为-3.2。支付价格指数降至59.5，前值为63.1；就业指数降至10.3，前值为10.6。原文链接：https://t.co/Jld9SvT3hO
初请失业金升至19.9万，预期20.0万，前值19.8万；续请失业金171.0万，预期170.9万 原文： Initial jobless claims up to 199k vs. 200k est. & 198k prior; continuing claims at 1.710M vs. 1.709M est. & 1.714M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.3k), IL (+1.1k), & NJ (+0.9k); greatest decreases in HI (-0.3k), MI (-0.1k), & IA (-0.1k) ht
9月喂入PCE（美联储偏爱通胀指标）的PPI分项 https://t.co/mIJvNffT4E 原文： September PPI components that feed into PCE (Fed’s preferred measure of #inflation) https://t.co/mIJvNffT4E
美国9月零售销售环比增长0.8%，剔除通胀后增长0.1%；核心销售增长0.1%，销量约为0。分项中汽油增长6.4%、家具增长1.3%、餐吧增长1.1%、健康增长0.7%，建材下降0.6%、体育用品下降0.5%。
美国9月PPI环比上涨1.3%，高于预期的0.6%；前值为上涨0.5%，由0.4%上修。核心PPI环比上涨0.7%，高于预期的0.3%，前值为上涨0.2%。原文链接：https://t.co/3zIvPOkS2S
美国9月PPI同比上涨6.3%，高于5.4%的预期和上修至5.6%的前值；核心PPI同比上涨5.0%，高于4.4%的预期和4.8%的前值。原文链接：https://t.co/pIQKI9t1jn
美国9月零售销售环比增长0.8%，高于预期的0.3%，低于前值1.3%。除汽车销售环比增长0.9%，前值为1.4%；控制组环比增长0.1%，前值为1.2%。
Gregory Daco称，PPI通胀报告中的价格上涨幅度大、覆盖面广。能源是商品价格上涨的主要驱动因素，柴油价格迅速传导至机票和卡车运输价格；机械设备和酒店业利润率也上升。原文称能源推动了有记录以来幅度最大的商品价格上涨。
伊朗海军称，霍尔木兹海峡东部一艘被其认定为“违规”的油轮起火；该消息是否得到确认仍待观察。
No new UKMTO shipping attack repots today (yet) We've had at least one attack report virtually every day this month so far.
Once seen as a conduit for better global policy coordination because of its broader representation, the G20 has struggled in recent years to agree on a joint communiqué, let alone act as a conductor of collective action to address global challenges. Today's meeting in Thailand on https://t.co/4usIYN
After a solid run over the past year, the KBW Bank Index has retreated sharply from its August peak, falling nearly 14% [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/8CoY5kiiHC
Retirement benefits were available to 72 percent of private industry workers in March 2026 #BLSData https://t.co/aSOWwwvRfK https://t.co/Ql8QclBLNV
PODCAST: Pleasure to join @Rory_Johnston for a discussion about the war, why oil prices didn't reach $200 a barrel, the global economy, Hormuz crossings, China and a lot more stuff. https://t.co/mRn6XSya27
美国商业石油库存上周减少 1340 万桶，创 4 月以来最大单周降幅。库存下降由原油、柴油和“其他”产品推动，其中“其他”产品主要是 NGLs；原油库存低于过去 5 年同期低点，并在通常应累库的时段继续下降。
Latest @AAIISentiment (week ending 10/14/26) showed modest shifts as bullish sentiment slid to 38.7% vs. 40.3% while bearish sentiment edged up to 41.6% vs. 39.0% ... this week’s special question polls AAII members on investing approach https://t.co/AKPtnEd9Pt