X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
a 1 pp shift in the composition of output would normally lead to a shift of ~ 1.3m jobs (US economy has 130m jobs at the time). the lower estimate reflects the standard view the traded goods sector is more productive than some service sectors, so less job intense
A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. https://t.co/AcrblgHGGS 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That i
For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60EDhxYGD
and kind of shocked that there isn't general recognition that the ten years after China entered the WTO were not in aggregate great years for the US economy (jobless recovery, housing bubble fueled by imbalances, global financial crisis, great recession) -- certainly they weren't
Actually I was most interested in the basic observation that a surge in imports had a differentiated regional impact -- which seems to be a very robust conclusion. I had already observed the "China" shock in my own data tracking so that wasn't news to me. 引用 @joefrancis505：My guess is that Dr Set
Recent conversations on here have reminded me of this excellent paper: https://t.co/EXOt8Z9fAB "part of the increase in credit from 1999 to 2007 in regions with exposure to trade is a consequence of higher credit demand associated with adverse labor market shocks"
Imports from China started to rise in 21/22 (notably of batteries) -- but on the export side, European auto exports looked resilient going into 2023 ... and then the bottom fell out in the Chinese market (UK's importance to Europe is also obvious in this chart) https://t.co/ao7PTcpXNX
Today, as @SecScottBessent visits Pennsylvania, the contrast is clear: @POTUS' America First agenda is delivering for the Keystone State. https://t.co/4guNB9LMLF
美债收益率越高，未来回报往往越好；自1914年以来，两者关系的R²为0.85。10年前收益率为2%，如今为5.5%；按历史数据，未来十年的年回报约为5%，而非-2%。
2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg
1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 引用 @dampedspring：This chart is
not sure the regulatory burden in china is smaller than in the US/EU right now. different perhaps but not smaller --
Apple and a Hacker's Future I was happy for years in Apple's walled garden; with AI, however, their protections feel like limitations. https://t.co/aoNmGjTjp0
Nvidia和博通给出的未来12个月AI收入展望合计约8000亿美元。MS认为，当前电力限制不会危及这一收入，但可能使业绩上行更难；两家公司合计占XPUs市场约90%。
People sharing this as bullish are not reading the following lines.. They're very much in my camp of the mid-teens being a reasonable number this year mid-teens to high-teens next year. Need to be very optimistic to be in that 20-30GW/yr camp. Some semis guys are in 30GW+/yr. BTM
Heat rate vs installed cost of various time to power offerings https://t.co/rYZbpSWfDd
推文调侃有人只看视频标题，并引用一条对比：May 时 @IanCutress 称“华为 Tau 定律，这什么都不会改变！”，October 时 @Qualcomm 同意获得支撑 @Huawei 新型 LogicFolding 的专利许可。
SynMax将美国2026年gross GW部署预期从14–16上调至16–18。Jefferies hosted SynMax，修订反映已开工项目推进加快，尤其是劳动力和资本从准备度较低的项目重新配置的情况。
贝恩全球基准情景预计，到2030年数据中心IT容量累计净增约149 GW。年度新增量预计从2026年的约20 GW升至2029—2030年的36 GW；美国约占新增容量的50%—67%，近期占比可能更高。
The difference in what Anthropic and OpenAI as well as many others give you in value for a subscription is insane. We tested Meta, Minimax, Kimi, Grok, and Cursor subscriptions 引用 @SemiAnalysis_：It doesn't make sense to say a subscription plan is worth $ X in isolation. The way to think about subs
USAID engaged in election interference and regime change around the world, causing massive strife 引用 @MikeBenzCyber：Here’s a shocking statistic you may not know. USAID more than doubled its spending on Brazil as soon Bolsonaro won their 2018 election. This was not because Brazil suddenly needed twi
OAI and Ant are also at ~30-40% inference with the rest allocated for training It’s one of the most important assumptions in all of compute/tokenomics because it dictates how much compute is monetized and the monetization rate As these guys all scale from 1-2 gigs to 5 GW and 引用 @jukan05：Appare
I get the call out on aggressive valuations for the labs (which should be litigated in public and we’ll see how the IPOs do) but comparing multiples or against historical revenue without accounting for growth (amongst the fastest we’ve ever seen in capitalism) and the rapid 引用 @craigweiss：if meta w
感觉小火箭RKLB又值得好好看看，这次核心逻辑有几个： 1、首先最重要的为了收购Iridium铱星通信筹集资金进行ATM增发股票融资在9月中已经结束了。 引用 @qinbafrank：怎么看RKLB今天发布的二季度财报？简单说就是当季经营非常强，但边际信息偏弱。详细聊聊： 1、RKLB处于历史最强阶段。，Q2营收创纪录达到2.341亿美元，同比增长62%；积压订单达到23.56亿美元，同比增长137%；GAAP毛利率、非GAAP毛利率和调整后EBITDA均明显好于公司此前指引。Space https://t.co/SMyvdJ5U77
基于 Coherenr 专家访谈，文章估算 COHR 可插拔光模块业绩：800G 与 1.6T 产品合计销售额预计从 2025 年的 41.9 亿美元增至 2026E 的 62.6 亿美元。文中还引用观点称，Cohr 经营效率低于 Lite，但基本面并不差。
高通（QCOM）的AI智能体故事线开始受到关注。引用内容称，Muse charm 将由高通 Snapdragon 提供动力，并提到 CA 曾表示高通正与 OpenAI 和 Meta 合作。
The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco On Why It’s Time To Start Buying Bonds https://t.co/SyHexlpDlA
Had the pleasure of meeting Michelle at an event in Toronto a few weeks ago—she’s fantastic, and I’d encourage folks to listen. Our conversation was scheduled before the latest controversy cycle, and I think a lot of people would be surprised to hear how Kpler analysts interpret 引用 @DropSiteNews：
Rational Dissent Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in https://t.co/Pizl2m
For those who think asset values can't be allowed to drop because the deficit needs cap gains or else it will blow up. If cap gains went to zero (which of course is nonsense ) what would happen to the deficit?
Helpful guide to hiring your first @Grok @Bot employee. It really is like hiring an amazing helper that learns your needs and gets smarter almost every day! 引用 @distortgeekin：Grok Bot could be the first thing you hire instead of prompt It can own a job, work inside your tools for hours and come
Ok I’ll bite - why is Hermes so good? Still have never tried it 引用 @jumperz：my tier list of AI agents so far https://t.co/Wr5K5Nv1XC
Power On: After years without a design chief overseeing both its hardware and software design teams, new Apple CEO John Ternus has found one: himself. https://t.co/Q1wCIzdXvO
Have to imagine the slate has been ready to go for a while now with this either or but feels like you have to be comfortable in the product pipeline and compute availability to even suggest it 引用 @thsottiaux：Over the next 28 days, each day we’ll either ship one thing that is a clear improvement and
People building in finance & AI… here’s a great product roadmap to aspire to get to 引用 @lefttailguy：I wonder what's next. I suspect one interesting endpoint is that the excel model becomes the quantitative surface of a much deeper research graph / self-constructing ontology. I could imagine somethi
Another great MacroTalk this week with @AahanPrometheus covering: - Signs of cracks in the commodity bull market. - How far the dissaving-driven expansion / earnings boom can really run. - And... the perfect pre-pod / meeting energy shot. https://t.co/fI9uhSh8E2
"i don't trust that [tanker/satellite imagery/flow] data, it's obviously manipulated" <shows multiple independent estimates all roughly indicating the same pace and trend> "see, that's the proof—collusion! you should instead trust my skeptical VIBES" https://t.co/TuUtftU9wL
近期石油流量确为战争期间最高，但作者称这一流量代价极高，当前结构不可持续。早期数据已显露波动迹象，或至少显示近期增幅放缓。引用内容称，赫格塞思表示，由于飞行员控制空域，目前通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油量超过冲突开始前。
for anyone following the oil market for more than the past few months, it’s *very* funny seeing people start to say that observed data (Kpler/Vortexa/satellite imagery) is manipulated and for proof we should look at the *implied* estimates from IEA/EIA/Chinese government data 😂 https://t.co/beRZCx7
Actual amount that SpaceX saved taxpayers is even higher now 引用 @TeslaLarry：The Washington Post famously claimed Elon Musk's companies received $38B from US governments. The truth? Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, SAVED the US Government (and taxpayers) an estimated $14B. I've covered that in detail in