美股的泡沫分为估值泡沫和盈利泡沫
美股的泡沫分为估值泡沫和盈利泡沫 估值现在根本没有泡沫，无论静态还是动态。 盈利泡沫需要向前看，在你听到别人聊泡沫时，记得多问一句，你看到未来的盈利风险在哪里？对建立自己的观点会有帮助的
#黄金宏观
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·grokAI 评分2525
X·宏观AI 评分2020 As this mix of charts from CNBC and Bloomberg illustrates, one of the few areas of economic and…
As this mix of charts from CNBC and Bloomberg illustrates, one of the few areas of economic and financial relief this past week came from lower government bond yields. More to follow in my weekly look at global economy and markets. #economy #markets #stocks #bonds #oil #gold https://t.co/3bG9pFMRc
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Brent crude launches back above $107/bbl
Brent crude launches back above $107/bbl Friday gonna Friday https://t.co/c19rV3K1gG
X·宏观AI 评分5353 布伦特期货自5月以来首次触及110美元，期限结构走强
布伦特期货自5月以来首次触及110美元，期限结构走强。原文将市场变化与沙特石油基础设施受损传闻，以及美伊和沙特胡塞冲突升级担忧联系起来。完整报告见 https://t.co/SZPfYPh58M
X·grokAI 评分4040 ODD LOTS新一期：法国政治危机演变为债务危机，讨论欧元危机2.0风险
ODD LOTS新一期采访德国外交关系委员会成员、马克龙前顾问Shahin Vallée，讨论法国政治危机转为债务危机以及欧元危机2.0的风险。
X·宏观AI 评分3939 沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？）
沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？） 没有给任何指引，多数问题都和通胀，货币政策无关，唯一他有聊到“过去一个月基本和我们预期的一样，接下去还有两次会议”
X·宏观AI 评分1515 如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑： 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints…
Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints (CNBC chart below)? I suspect it comes down to two main drivers, with the second having more implications for the well-being of the US and global economies: A flight to quality https://t.co/DPn00Fgg
X·宏观AI 评分3535 The jump in Canadian holdings of U.S. bonds may actually be due to China. A big mystery in the…
The jump in Canadian holdings of U.S. bonds may actually be due to China. A big mystery in the market is how China recycles its $1t trade surplus. In the past they bought Treasuries held through Belgium custodians, but some may be through Canadian custodians as well. https://t.co/hRK69e6Agn 引用 @bus
X·宏观AI 评分3636 I miss the days before the paid service🙃
I miss the days before the paid service🙃 https://t.co/V4yJAmVJmD 引用 @crampell：Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate
X·grokAI 评分4040 彭博社关注中国广泛使用非美国托管机构
前美国财政部官员布拉德·塞策表示，中国在隐藏美元方面做得比摆脱美元更好。
X·grokAI 评分5353 作者分析BLS特殊聚合指数中的9月美国CPI分项
作者根据BLS Table 3称，剔除食品、住房和能源后，9月CPI同比约+2.0%、环比约0.3–0.4%；进一步剔除二手车后，同比约+2.3%、环比约0.3–0.4%。文中将这些读数与整体核心CPI同比2.6%作比较，并指出美联储更关注PCE，9月PCE数据要到月底公布；作者还提及明日的PPI数据。
X·grokAI 评分6565 美国9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，三个月年化率升至3.4%
美国9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，比多数预测者预期高约0.1个百分点。三个月年化率从8月的2%升至3.4%。原文链接：https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2110348680968761383
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储10月不加息证据：9月CPI特殊聚合指数
文章指出，若美联储要从9月CPI数据中寻找10月不加息的证据，可看BLS Table 3中的特殊聚合指数：剔除食品、住房和能源后，该指数同比约上涨2.0%，环比约上涨0.3%至0.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分1313 The debate over imbalances is sometimes viewed as a repeat of old debate -- but that ignores the…
The debate over imbalances is sometimes viewed as a repeat of old debate -- but that ignores the sheer scale of Asia's surplus ... as well as a very different composition of the associated financial outflows 4/4
X·grokAI 评分2323 债市正常状态 当我们最爱的债市末日论者加大对美国利率“末日决战”的鼓吹时，现实是：与基础数据和预期中的进一步紧缩相比，这轮收益率上升看起来相当正常。
债市正常状态 当我们最爱的债市末日论者加大对美国利率“末日决战”的鼓吹时，现实是：与基础数据和预期中的进一步紧缩相比，这轮收益率上升看起来相当正常。 https://t.co/QkXiGU1wB5 https://t.co/R8fhE8lGaW 原文： Bond Market Normalcy While our favorite bond doomers amp up their calls for US rate armageddon, the reality is the yield rise looked pretty normal compared to underlying
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Fiscal dominance.
Fiscal dominance. And it begs the question; if hikes don’t have the same effect, is going further really the answer? 引用 @AahanPrometheus：The Fed may have to go further than in prior cycles to slow down activity Hikes don't have the same effect as before https://t.co/k5AKTFbYs1
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Governor Waller participates in a discussion at the Forum 2026
Governor Waller participates in a discussion at the @BBGNewEconomy Forum 2026 Watch live: https://t.co/LRdfwsAu4K Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
X·宏观AI 评分1818 汽油价格与选票，此次中期选举民主党一定会横扫么？高盛这张图将民主党通用选票领先优势与美国平均零售汽油价格叠加对比：民主党的领先优势在伊朗战争爆发导致汽油价格飙升后逐步扩大，两组数据近期朝同一方向运动。…
汽油价格与选票，此次中期选举民主党一定会横扫么？高盛这张图将民主党通用选票领先优势与美国平均零售汽油价格叠加对比：民主党的领先优势在伊朗战争爆发导致汽油价格飙升后逐步扩大，两组数据近期朝同一方向运动。而且油价还稍稍有点领先信号的意思。 https://t.co/CnlS7DwoBo 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
X·宏观AI 评分3737 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
https://t.co/Wso4U7pWv4 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
X·宏观AI 评分1919 a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically…
a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically under-perform global trade b) that doesn't mean that the CNY doesn't have an impact on trade flows/ net exports -- China's surplus tends to expand when exports outperform global trade, while 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Th
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Worth remembering that to capture trade in gold you need to look at bars (metal shapes technically…
Worth remembering that to capture trade in gold you need to look at bars (metal shapes technically ...) as well as the gold line item. The US imported a ton of bars in q1 2025 ... https://t.co/mPVM1mm5r6 引用 @jasonfurman：The United States is having an extraordinary record year for exports. Exports
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Brent crude prompt futures price up $0.03/bbl over the past month.
Brent crude prompt futures price up $0.03/bbl over the past month. https://t.co/PnTjIPFB18
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储理事沃勒称两次加息不必在连续会议进行
美联储理事沃勒表示，市场定价反映美联储还将加息两次，但两次加息不必安排在连续会议上，应在可接受的时间内完成。文章还提到市场关注美联储点阵图。
X·宏观AI 评分3434 Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming…
Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming threat of Hurricane Isaias [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/m9GpyVH9SS
X·宏观AI 评分4242 突发：特朗普称美国不会在11月3日中期选举前攻击伊朗
美国总统特朗普称，华盛顿不会在11月3日美国中期选举前攻击伊朗。正文提出三种可能解释：美伊谈判正在进行、特朗普意在安抚德黑兰；这是一种转移注意力的策略，攻击仍可能发生；或是在对石油市场进行口头干预。
X·宏观AI 评分4949 特朗普称美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗
特朗普表示，美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗。文章称，他可能意识到选前强硬言论推高了原油价格，并讽刺其言论是否可信。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低…
过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低迷一些，SET UP好
X·宏观AI 评分2727 The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their…
The good news: US average retail prices for both gasoline and diesel have pulled back from their recent peaks. The less good news: both remain elevated and face an uncertain outlook. AAA data below. #economy #markets #gas #diesel #energy https://t.co/8ue41ZiQy2
X·宏观AI 评分4040 白宫要求五角大楼准备中期选举前对伊朗目标采取潜在打击的方案
据两名政府官员，白宫已指示五角大楼准备针对伊朗目标的潜在打击方案，这些行动可能在中期选举前实施。官员称，相关规划旨在突出总统降低汽油价格的努力。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal…
And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train. 引用 @LynAldenContact：Most of the hawks don't take into account the fiscal-driven inflation situation or sovereign bond liquidity.
X·宏观AI 评分6060 印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨
印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨，达到当月最高需求水平。8月消费量由1860.6万吨下修至1854.5万吨；9月柴油消费同比增长5.6%至716.4万吨，汽油消费同比增长8.0%。
X·宏观AI 评分6565 秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计2026年全球鱼粉产量将降至十年低位
秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计全球鱼粉产量将在2026年降至十年低位。原文称鱼粉和鱼油价格处于纪录高位。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 油价与美债联动相关性升至 35 年来最高
油价与美债联动相关性升至 35 年来最高 https://t.co/BY34TwZD7B 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity…
Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we get the Fed minutes and lots of interesting data. For more details, please see one of the links below for my weekly note
X·财经博主AI 评分4545 一张图显示政府利息支出占 GDP 比重升至 60 多年高位
图表显示，政府利息支出已升至 GDP 的 3.2%，为 60 多年来高位；非金融企业利息支出降至 GDP 的 0.7%，为 60 多年来低位。
X·财经博主AI 评分3434 Color-coded real yields.
Color-coded real yields. Even with the recent spike, 10-year TIPS (2.91%) are only back to the pre-QE average (2.74%). Back then, debt held by the public was ~35% of GDP. Now it's ~100%. If debt were the driver, real yields would be far higher than pre-2008. https://t.co/3G49zfzkwk
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Adam Tooze's concept of a profit dollar works for sovereign investors too:
Adam Tooze's concept of a profit dollar works for sovereign investors too: "Mr Setser estimates that nearly all the new funds and banks are more exposed to America than their countries’ central banks are" 2/3 https://t.co/kuLDaYydUT
X·宏观AI 评分4949 市场对美联储近期政策行动的定价本周大幅调整
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney…
Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney general that suggested the DOJ is done investigating the Fed building renovations. He restates his unhappiness with former Fed chair Powell. https://t.co/LH8IxiUnoW 引用 @NickTimiraos：Blanche tells Blo