X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Oh, my sweet summer child... 引用 @LynAldenContact：The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues.
UKMTO reporting that a tug got double-tapped in Hormuz this morning. A TUG! https://t.co/T2SAT7m81s
Spoke with @WarOnTheRocks about Trump's Russian diesel deal. What it is, what it isn't, and how it fits into our historic crisis in middle distillates supply. https://t.co/dN8XwhCnVe
美国10万亿美元AI基础设施热潮因项目延误、公众反弹和投资者信心不稳显现裂痕。相关建设支撑着美国经济，当前面临重新评估。
.@SecScottBessent: “Core inflation is down. Food is below the Fed’s targets. Prescription drugs have had the biggest decrease in history. Rents are down. This is an energy shock. We will get to the other side of the Iran conflict, and those prices will come down.” https://t.co/Xw8Vf8KW6y
“and then, kids, the President posted to Truth Social.” https://t.co/wUlwmzbJ26
The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues. 引用 @PaulAnleitner：“We become what we behold.” -William Blake
This, from the Financial Times, highlights a core reality of today's geo-economic era: Multi-causal relationships between economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics. #economy #markets #Geopolitics #geoeconomics @FT https://t.co/UK3CPCu5e9
UKMTO 今晨报告又发生三起袭击：两起发生在波斯湾，其中一起据报由一名乘坐小艇、持 RPG 的人员实施；另一起是小艇在也门南部海岸附近骚扰一艘 LNG 油轮。
Nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago, according to a September John Burns Research & Consulting survey. “We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone,” said Scott
Catch up on all the new #BLSdata and publications that came out this week! https://t.co/6g1gI9492s https://t.co/UyaVmNGTeD
过去一周市场出现了逆流：尽管通胀数据偏热，债券收益率仍然下降；与此同时，随着科技股遭抛售、轮动加速，股市出现剧烈波动和分化。 与此同时，从油价到地缘经济紧张，更广泛的地缘经济压力依然存在。 随着我们进入经济数据和企业财报密集的一周，“经济韧性”这一主题面临一次重要的实证检验。 详情请通过以下任一链接阅读我关于全球经济和市场的周报： https://t.co/Ak7dVy7Lnn https://t.co/eKnKFvHluE 原文： This past week brought market counter-currents: bond yields fell despite hotter
伍德麦肯兹分析显示，未来五年美国数据中心表后天然气需求最多新增每日50亿立方英尺（5 Bcf/d）。McGuire 将其与约19–20 Bcf/d的现有LNG出口需求、约112–113 Bcf/d的近期美国天然气产量作比较，并称LNG和数据中心需求相对稳定，可能减少供暖需求急升时的灵活性。
一艘油轮在波斯湾内、远离霍尔木兹海峡处遭袭；小艇靠近后，有人向船只发射火箭推进榴弹。
Javier Blas称，10月16日15:29 GMT的Copernicus Sentinel 1 SAR影像显示，胡塞对相关区域发动弹道导弹袭击后，沙特延布和穆阿吉兹港仍有多艘油轮装载；沙特称袭击已被拦截。引用内容称，10月15日沙特波斯湾和红海码头装载了9艘VLCC及另外2艘Suezmax/Aframax原油船，总量超过2000万桶。
特朗普于周五晚签署行政令，豁免俄罗斯适用国会上月通过的新制裁立法。该措施被描述为给俄罗斯总统普京提供经济支持；美国正转向俄罗斯寻求降低天然气价格的帮助。
《当代商业调查》（Survey）新刊：政府收入与支出：2026年第二季度 https://t.co/rjTfXjQ9bA #SCB https://t.co/9fRJAhNwAM 原文： New in the Survey: Government Receipts and Expenditures: Second Quarter 2026 https://t.co/rjTfXjQ9bA #SCB https://t.co/9fRJAhNwAM
美联储主席沃什没有释放可能加息的信号，市场定价加息概率为14%。结合近期美联储关键决策者的讲话，作者认为10月FOMC会议可能“鹰派按兵不动”。
作者称，长期怀疑至少部分伊朗原油混入阿曼湾船对船转运，并欢迎新增的报道细节。作者认为，美国封锁已使伊朗出口和产量大幅下滑，但并非百分之百。
BUSINESS LEADERS SURVEY → Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector declined significantly in October. Employment was flat, and price increases remained widespread. Firms turned somewhat pessimistic about the outlook. Learn more: https://t.co/we32VREUAg
Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance, markets have interpreted his remarks at the IMF meetings in Thailand as dovish when it comes to an October rate action.
美国9月工业生产总量增长0.7%，其中制造业增长0.3%、公共事业增长3.5%、采矿业增长0.2%；产能利用率为76.9%。
至少五名美联储官员在过去两周公开表示降息没有紧迫性；美联储主席凯文·沃什谈及向市场提供指引时称，“我们不做这类事”。引用内容称，鲍曼在 CPI 发布前表示需要时间观察经济变化；古尔斯比的发言未完整显示。
Javier Blas称，延布和穆艾吉兹的卫星图像显示，沙特东西输油管道也在以很高负荷运行。利雅得方面此前称，该管道输送量接近每日600万桶。
I'm 37 today, which feels old but the past 7-8 months have felt like a dozen years so honestly pretty charitable in the scheme My only birthday request is that Friday does not Friday this particular Friday—looking forward to a calm day of oil market writeup-ing That'd be great https://t.co/voJvPz3
9月进口价格环比上涨1.1%，前值为上涨0.5%，此前值从上涨0.7%下修。出口价格环比上涨2.2%，前值为上涨1.2%，此前值从上涨0.6%上修。
If anyone was wondering whether Trump's Russian diesel deal was a crack that might provide Europe with some wiggle room to source more Russian molecules ahead of winter the answer is NOPE. https://t.co/8GW8RqqDi5
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries did temporarily subside following the "Energy Truce" announced by Trump bc Kyiv obviously wants Moscow to stop bombing Ukrainian power plants ahead of winter. But Moscow wasn't interested, so we're back—another refinery strike last night. https://t.co/ttEcbyv
U.S. small-scale #solar generation has quadrupled in the last decade. #TodayInEnergy https://t.co/HDgrIxpiFp https://t.co/kyYI9lk3i0
Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries/fuel facilities continue to re-ramp following the early-week lull that followed Trump's "energy truce" announcement In fact, all else equal, Russian diesel US sanctions relief actually further bolsters Kyiv's case for said strikes. 引用 @yarotrof：Ukraine
TBAC Questionaire. No obvious guidance that "The House" is going to martingale and manipulate the long end further.
Brent > $109 Seeing as of yet **very unconfirmed** reports of thermal anomalies around Yanbu that folks are interpreting as evidence of either an attack on loading infra or the East-West Pipeline [again] Stress the unconfirmed nature of said report; waiting for real news. 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Also g
LOL! 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP: KATIE ZACHARIA WILL STAY IN SOME FORM, BUT MAYBE ANOTHER FORM
So, on that Yanbu/East-West Pipeline rumour confirmation... https://t.co/CX9IZiwqty
Asked ChatGPT if there was anything urgently relevant published over the past two hours to explain this crude spike and it was like ~ "huh, weird—feels like vibes"
美国军方称，过去7天其协助载有超过1亿桶原油的油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，折合日均超过1400万桶。该口径不包括绕行运输。
非能源商品价格持续通胀，越来越难归咎于关税。耶鲁预算实验室追踪数据显示，美国平均关税税率较2025年8月峰值下降43%，不计2025年4月的混乱期。最高法院针对IEEPA关税的裁决、要求遵循程序的关税法律及对可负担性的政治关注均产生了影响。
按ISM方法调整后，帝国州与费城制造业指数10月均扩张，但两份调查故事不同：帝国走强，费城走弱 https://t.co/ZW5qEkP814 原文： Adjusted for ISM methodology, both the Empire and Philly Manufacturing Indexes expanded in October, but the two surveys told different stories: Empire strengthened, while Philly weakened https://t.co/ZW5qEkP814
ODD LOTS新一期采访德国外交关系委员会成员、马克龙前顾问Shahin Vallée，讨论法国政治危机转为债务危机以及欧元危机2.0的风险。
本该是强化10月加息预期的时候，但沃什却没有这么做。今天在泰国曼谷与IMF总裁展开炉边谈话的时候，沃什表示2026年剩余的两次议息会议将是形成明确政策判断的关键时刻。因为前两天9月cpi和ppi的强势，大家想通过沃什的讲话看出有没有透露出“加息的紧迫性”，但他没有说“通胀风险正在加剧、可能需要进一 引用 @qinbafrank：如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：