中国对美出口近期快速增长，美元计价已回到特朗普第二任期初水平
中国对美出口近期快速增长，美元计价已回到特朗普第二任期初的水平。Robin Brooks称，中国贸易顺差急升，主要与对美国以外地区出口大幅增长有关，并认为这显示中国正加大出口、努力降低对美国的依赖。
#汇率/人民币
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分4747
X·宏观AI 评分2323 CNY generally strengthened v the USD in q3, so there is no particular reason export conversion…
CNY generally strengthened v the USD in q3, so there is no particular reason export conversion dried up -- but definitely not seeing flows of the expected size in the state banks right now. 4/4
X·宏观AI 评分4343 中国国有商业银行第三季度净外汇资产增加1150亿美元，仅约三分之一海关顺差进入国有银行
中国国有商业银行第三季度净外汇资产仍增加1150亿美元；同期海关顺差为3650亿美元，约三分之一体现在国有银行。
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Where did China's $130b plus September trade surplus go? as of now, it a bit of a mystery
Where did China's $130b plus September trade surplus go? as of now, it a bit of a mystery There is no settlement data yet, and nothing showed up at the PBOC. Guess the market really did play a decisive role in CNY valuation :) 1/ https://t.co/Kf4sArxZqO
X·grokAI 评分4040 彭博社关注中国广泛使用非美国托管机构
前美国财政部官员布拉德·塞策表示，中国在隐藏美元方面做得比摆脱美元更好。
X·宏观AI 评分4646 高芯片价格推高贸易额，但对中国芯片贸易冲击大致中性
高芯片价格是重要因素，但对中国的影响较小：芯片出口与进口同步增长，芯片价格冲击大致中性。剔除黄金并假设9月数据与8月持平后，中国过去12个月的贸易顺差接近1.5万亿美元。
X·宏观AI 评分5454 中、韩、台9月贸易顺差合计达2000亿美元
Brad Setser称，中国、韩国和台湾9月贸易顺差合计为2000亿美元，按年化口径为2.4万亿美元。原文附有链接：https://t.co/HD29F0mdaY
X·宏观AI 评分3131 Appreciation this year just reverses the CNY's nominal fall v the euro in the first half of 25.…
Appreciation this year just reverses the CNY's nominal fall v the euro in the first half of 25. Currency moves have an impact only after a lag -- but there there also won't likely be much of an impact until the nominal CNY is above its 23/4 levels https://t.co/VLrHrSMAZ5 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Funny ho
X·grokAI 评分5050 NFIB数据显示9月小企业主贷款利率上升报告占比增加4个百分点
NFIB数据显示，9月报告最近一笔贷款支付了更高利率的小企业主占比上升4个百分点，达到一年多来的最高水平。短期贷款平均利率为8.2%，逐渐接近8.3%的历史均值。
X·宏观AI 评分2424 And of course read my blog on this too ...
And of course read my blog on this too ... One can debate whether China is so far from internal balance that its trading partners should turn a blind eye to its evident undervaluation and growing external surplus. But one cannot debate whether the exchange rate matters!
X·宏观AI 评分2828 A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested:
A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested: 1) the PBOC manages the RMB heavily 2) That management matters, as the RMB's value does have a clear impact on the pace of Chinese export growth 1/ https://t.co/miYCmheBe5
X·宏观AI 评分1818 And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that…
And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that fix has been the main driver of the CNY in recent years As Mark Sobel notes, this does nothing to help the PBOC's credilibillty https://t.co/fqCD3FBan0
X·宏观AI 评分4646 快讯：中国人民币兑美元汇率触及四年多来高位
中国人民币兑美元汇率刚触及四年多来高位。多数法定货币兑美元走弱之际，人民币走势相反。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 Correlation vs causation vs intent - as we argue in the #GenevaReport, it is mostly about the…
Correlation vs causation vs intent - as we argue in the #GenevaReport, it is mostly about the inflation differential driven by China’s housing bust vs the West inflation surge, at the time of rapid tech progress. A Reverse Dutch Disease that benefits China @cepr_org https://t.co/XCDNy6qrki 引用 @Brad
X·宏观AI 评分2424 As this chart (h/t ) shows, periods of CNY depreciation/ weakness have consistently been associated…
As this chart (h/t @Mike_Weilandt) shows, periods of CNY depreciation/ weakness have consistently been associated with Chinese export outperformance. (the IMF China team ignored this from 22-24, and as a result missed the jump up in China's surplus) Time to get back to BoP https://t.co/ow8GUgbld2
X·宏观AI 评分2323 A chart that says more than a thousand words
A chart that says more than a thousand words The acceleration in China's export volume growth clearly followed the RMB's depreciation. Sometimes international economics is simple (even if the PBOC and a few others want to fuzz it up) https://t.co/dY7aZH8yUB
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios
Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios 1️⃣ Favorable: gradual erosion of US Dollar along with creation of a diverse global multipolar monetary ecosystem 2️⃣ Worrisome: sudden collapse of USD before other systems are mature and robust: global liquidity shortage @nabe_econ https://t.co/OlUuV5
X·宏观AI 评分1919 a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically…
a) It is true that the CNY has never been so strong that Chinese exports systematically under-perform global trade b) that doesn't mean that the CNY doesn't have an impact on trade flows/ net exports -- China's surplus tends to expand when exports outperform global trade, while 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Th
X·宏观AI 评分2929 That matters because China's underlying need to export remains strong (weak internal demand)…
That matters because China's underlying need to export remains strong (weak internal demand), China's currency remains undervalued (even with the recent move tied to dollar strength) and China's current export wave is broad based -- sectoral measures won't stop the tide 7/7
X·宏观AI 评分3232 Year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes rose across the board in September according…
Year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes rose across the board in September according @NewYorkFed Survey of Consumer Expectations https://t.co/x4IjCDsvB8
X·宏观AI 评分88 And a few other technical points here --
And a few other technical points here -- (1) the IMF itself has long indicated it puts the most weight on the "current account" model, which now implies a 21% plus undervaluation (4% surplus is over 3% of GDP higher than the 0.5 to 1 % of GDP norm, each pp of excess surplus is
X·宏观AI 评分2020 China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
X·宏观AI 评分1818 One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's…
One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's global trade. Domestic demand growth doesn't spill over into demand for European -- other other -- goods anymore. Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export https://t.co/fkbc3D02qv
X·宏观AI 评分1010 The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right…
The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right thing for China's trade partners to ask for can be found here. Europe cares more about whether China is moving ever further away from external balance than about how China
X·宏观AI 评分1616 China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve.
China has a problem with internal balance -- which exchange rate adjustment on its own won't solve. And China has a problem with external balance (an unusually large surplus), which is a structural problem of the kind that exchange rate adjustment on its own would address. To
X·宏观AI 评分3333 "Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances"
"Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances" Guess the PBOC agrees with Secretary Bessent -- who said something similar at Ashville 1/2 引用 @fbermingham：China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of scheduled trade
X·宏观AI 评分4848 中国出口增速相对全球贸易增长的加快与人民币贬值有关
有经验数据支持，2023年以来中国出口增速相对全球贸易增长的加快，与2022年以来人民币贬值有关；汇率对出口的影响存在滞后。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 And to be clear, the immediate issue isn't bringing China's surplus is down -- it is limiting the…
And to be clear, the immediate issue isn't bringing China's surplus is down -- it is limiting the pace at which it rises. the 07 to 12 RMB appreciation was in fact central to limiting the nominal rise in China's surplus and facilitating adjustment back then 2/2 https://t.co/e2zzeAZSgq
X·宏观AI 评分3636 Korea and Taiwan combined to run a trade surplus of $800b if the September numbers are annualized.…
Korea and Taiwan combined to run a trade surplus of $800b if the September numbers are annualized. Up from $100b two years ago ... If sustained, this is consistent with a $1 trillion current account surplus in Korea and Taiwan next year. Crazy 1/2 https://t.co/HiM6BzK1At
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance?
Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance? 引用 @SantiagoAuFund：Higher rates inject more money into the economy, that money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an…
Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an “act of treason” a day after the central banker, Emmanuel Moulin, warned that the country risked being "strangled by interest rates" if it didn't address its public finances. 引用 @JLMelenchon：Le banqui
X·宏观AI 评分3535 To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics…
To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics, conventional macroeconomics is currently winning. The August goods and services deficit was bigger than any deficit apart from those deficits associated with tariff front running 1/ https://t.co/MPrPSGOSh
X·宏观AI 评分3535 The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit.
The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit. How is that being financed -- strong foreign demand for US risk assets ... 1/2 https://t.co/NUsmoSJYRh
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural…
I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural rebalancing instrument” would work. I have also been thinking about some kind of special safeguard tied to macroeconomic imbalances, which sounds similar EU wheels are moving
X·宏观AI 评分1414 "the European Commission has no direct tool to respond to currency undervaluation and the European…
"the European Commission has no direct tool to respond to currency undervaluation and the European Central Bank does not treat trade-related currency misalignment as part of its role. So currency policy must also become part of Europe’s trade strategy" Pascal Lamy, in the
X·宏观AI 评分1616 It also seems obvious to me that "China" together with the dollar's strength (especially v Asia)…
It also seems obvious to me that "China" together with the dollar's strength (especially v Asia) explains why manufacturing output stopped growing with overall output after 2000 (a break from 70 to 99 ...) (the rising real deficit in goods indicates this wasn't just a shift in https://t.co/uCTcqXPM
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Wish Secretary Bessent would have said something similar at Ashville ...
Wish Secretary Bessent would have said something similar at Ashville ... Oh well. "the house" is not currently taking the lead on exchange rate issues
X·宏观AI 评分1414 France &Germany recognize that their trade defenses will always be tested absent a significant…
France &Germany recognize that their trade defenses will always be tested absent a significant adjustment in the RMB -- (they are 100% right that broad rebalancing won't happen without exchange rate adjustment; there isn't a strong link now between Chinese demand growth and https://t.co/ibENlkkL5b
X·宏观AI 评分3636 A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion --
A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion -- Basically, China's current trajectory, with sustained 10% growth in export volumes and a more modest but still pronounced increase in the surplus in manufactures https://t.co/jtfRvKoQCG 引用 @Balding