X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Where did China's $130b plus September trade surplus go? as of now, it a bit of a mystery There is no settlement data yet, and nothing showed up at the PBOC. Guess the market really did play a decisive role in CNY valuation :) 1/ https://t.co/Kf4sArxZqO
So read Katie Martin (in the FT), read the PBOC's statement and read Mark Sobel's rebuttal 6/ https://t.co/tw5Ny6xt6Z
A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested: 1) the PBOC manages the RMB heavily 2) That management matters, as the RMB's value does have a clear impact on the pace of Chinese export growth 1/ https://t.co/miYCmheBe5
And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that fix has been the main driver of the CNY in recent years As Mark Sobel notes, this does nothing to help the PBOC's credilibillty https://t.co/fqCD3FBan0
Spiky is one way to say it. PBoC also trying to deny the obvious -- namely that a weaker inflation adjusted (real) CNY predictably raises its exports and increases its current account surplus https://t.co/2h983VfQsg 引用 @ftchina：China gets spiky on currencies https://t.co/gH8QqBbNbQ
Correlation vs causation vs intent - as we argue in the #GenevaReport, it is mostly about the inflation differential driven by China’s housing bust vs the West inflation surge, at the time of rapid tech progress. A Reverse Dutch Disease that benefits China @cepr_org https://t.co/XCDNy6qrki 引用 @Brad
A chart that says more than a thousand words The acceleration in China's export volume growth clearly followed the RMB's depreciation. Sometimes international economics is simple (even if the PBOC and a few others want to fuzz it up) https://t.co/dY7aZH8yUB
"Exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve the structural problems behind global economic imbalances" Guess the PBOC agrees with Secretary Bessent -- who said something similar at Ashville 1/2 引用 @fbermingham：China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of scheduled trade