UKMTO reporting that a tug got double-tapped in Hormuz this morning.
UKMTO reporting that a tug got double-tapped in Hormuz this morning. A TUG! https://t.co/T2SAT7m81s
#大宗商品
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分1818 X·宏观AI 评分1919 Spoke with about Trump's Russian diesel deal.
Spoke with @WarOnTheRocks about Trump's Russian diesel deal. What it is, what it isn't, and how it fits into our historic crisis in middle distillates supply. https://t.co/dN8XwhCnVe
X·宏观AI 评分00 “and then, kids, the President posted to Truth Social.”
“and then, kids, the President posted to Truth Social.” https://t.co/wUlwmzbJ26
X·宏观AI 评分4949 UKMTO 今晨报告又发生三起袭击
UKMTO 今晨报告又发生三起袭击：两起发生在波斯湾，其中一起据报由一名乘坐小艇、持 RPG 的人员实施；另一起是小艇在也门南部海岸附近骚扰一艘 LNG 油轮。
X·grokAI 评分5252 伍德麦肯兹分析称美国数据中心表后天然气需求未来五年最多新增5 Bcf/d
伍德麦肯兹分析显示，未来五年美国数据中心表后天然气需求最多新增每日50亿立方英尺（5 Bcf/d）。McGuire 将其与约19–20 Bcf/d的现有LNG出口需求、约112–113 Bcf/d的近期美国天然气产量作比较，并称LNG和数据中心需求相对稳定，可能减少供暖需求急升时的灵活性。
X·宏观AI 评分4040 伊朗效仿索马里海盗手法：油轮在波斯湾遭小艇靠近并被火箭推进榴弹袭击
一艘油轮在波斯湾内、远离霍尔木兹海峡处遭袭；小艇靠近后，有人向船只发射火箭推进榴弹。
X·宏观AI 评分5858 卫星影像显示胡塞袭击后沙特延布和穆阿吉兹港仍有多艘油轮装载
Javier Blas称，10月16日15:29 GMT的Copernicus Sentinel 1 SAR影像显示，胡塞对相关区域发动弹道导弹袭击后，沙特延布和穆阿吉兹港仍有多艘油轮装载；沙特称袭击已被拦截。引用内容称，10月15日沙特波斯湾和红海码头装载了9艘VLCC及另外2艘Suezmax/Aframax原油船，总量超过2000万桶。
X·grokAI 评分4343 美封锁下伊朗原油或混入阿曼湾船对船转运，作者称仍非百分之百确定
作者称，长期怀疑至少部分伊朗原油混入阿曼湾船对船转运，并欢迎新增的报道细节。作者认为，美国封锁已使伊朗出口和产量大幅下滑，但并非百分之百。
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I have heavily pushed back on Trump's scapegoat-y claim that diesel prices are being driven…
I have heavily pushed back on Trump's scapegoat-y claim that diesel prices are being driven entirely by Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries—it's more like ~50/50 with the Iran War imho. But this comparison is a bit silly. Ukrainian strikes have absolutely hammered 引用 @marcthiessen：🚨BREAKI
X·宏观AI 评分5252 卫星图像显示沙特东西输油管道也在高负荷运行
Javier Blas称，延布和穆艾吉兹的卫星图像显示，沙特东西输油管道也在以很高负荷运行。利雅得方面此前称，该管道输送量接近每日600万桶。
X·宏观AI 评分6565 沙特10月15日装载超过2000万桶原油
沙特10月15日从波斯湾和红海码头装载超过2000万桶原油。根据Copernicus Sentinel-2卫星影像，当日装载船舶包括9艘VLCC，以及另外2艘Suezmax或Aframax。
X·宏观AI 评分22 I'm 37 today, which feels old but the past 7-8 months have felt like a dozen years so honestly…
I'm 37 today, which feels old but the past 7-8 months have felt like a dozen years so honestly pretty charitable in the scheme My only birthday request is that Friday does not Friday this particular Friday—looking forward to a calm day of oil market writeup-ing That'd be great https://t.co/voJvPz3
X·宏观AI 评分2727 If anyone was wondering whether Trump's Russian diesel deal was a crack that might provide Europe…
If anyone was wondering whether Trump's Russian diesel deal was a crack that might provide Europe with some wiggle room to source more Russian molecules ahead of winter the answer is NOPE. https://t.co/8GW8RqqDi5
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries did temporarily subside following the "Energy Truce"…
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries did temporarily subside following the "Energy Truce" announced by Trump bc Kyiv obviously wants Moscow to stop bombing Ukrainian power plants ahead of winter. But Moscow wasn't interested, so we're back—another refinery strike last night. https://t.co/ttEcbyv
X·宏观AI 评分3838 Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries/fuel facilities continue to re-ramp following the…
Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries/fuel facilities continue to re-ramp following the early-week lull that followed Trump's "energy truce" announcement In fact, all else equal, Russian diesel US sanctions relief actually further bolsters Kyiv's case for said strikes. 引用 @yarotrof：Ukraine
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Brent crude launches back above $107/bbl
Brent crude launches back above $107/bbl Friday gonna Friday https://t.co/c19rV3K1gG
X·宏观AI 评分3232 Spoke with Bloomberg's about the perfect storm of factors—from exploding shipping rates to weak…
Spoke with Bloomberg's @roberttuttle about the perfect storm of factors—from exploding shipping rates to weak USGC fuel oil markets—currently standing between Canadian oil producers and their ability to take advantage of high global crude prices. Read: https://t.co/brDtmS3vmr https://t.co/OHm4ZUQu0
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Also getting the first real rally in crude timespreads we've seen this week.
Also getting the first real rally in crude timespreads we've seen this week. Feels like we're missing a headline here. 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Brent > $108
X·宏观AI 评分3333 Brent > $109
Brent > $109 Seeing as of yet **very unconfirmed** reports of thermal anomalies around Yanbu that folks are interpreting as evidence of either an attack on loading infra or the East-West Pipeline [again] Stress the unconfirmed nature of said report; waiting for real news. 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Also g
X·宏观AI 评分1111 So, on that Yanbu/East-West Pipeline rumour confirmation...
So, on that Yanbu/East-West Pipeline rumour confirmation... https://t.co/CX9IZiwqty
X·宏观AI 评分5050 Dated Brent基准油价单日下跌约10美元/桶，北海现货溢价大幅回落
Dated Brent基准油价单日下跌约10美元/桶，北海现货溢价单日跌幅位居历史最大之列，或为史上最大。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 COMMODITY TRADING: Yaoyao Liu, a star oil trader who found himself deep in the hole on a bet made…
COMMODITY TRADING: Yaoyao Liu, a star oil trader who found himself deep in the hole on a bet made at the start of the Iran war, is set to leave commodities giant Vitol -- via @WSJ https://t.co/AC2yoPqW95
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Asked ChatGPT if there was anything urgently relevant published over the past two hours to explain…
Asked ChatGPT if there was anything urgently relevant published over the past two hours to explain this crude spike and it was like ~ "huh, weird—feels like vibes"
X·宏观AI 评分6969 美国军方称过去7天协助载有超过1亿桶原油的油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡
美国军方称，过去7天其协助载有超过1亿桶原油的油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，折合日均超过1400万桶。该口径不包括绕行运输。
X·宏观AI 评分5151 布伦特原油近月期货价格自5月以来首次触及每桶110美元
布伦特原油近月期货价格触及每桶110美元，为自5月以来首次。原文附有链接：https://t.co/ivboigZqJA
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads…
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/TLUgiHQcfF
X·宏观AI 评分5353 布伦特期货自5月以来首次触及110美元，期限结构走强
布伦特期货自5月以来首次触及110美元，期限结构走强。原文将市场变化与沙特石油基础设施受损传闻，以及美伊和沙特胡塞冲突升级担忧联系起来。完整报告见 https://t.co/SZPfYPh58M
X·宏观AI 评分1515 如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑： 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
X·grokAI 评分3535 全文：。美国不会再获得额外的1亿桶……
全文：@IEA关于战略石油储备的公报。美国不会再获得额外的1亿桶…… 原文： FULL STATEMENT: @IEA communiqué on strategic oil reserves. The US isn't getting the additional 100m barrels it requested, only a vague mention that total amount of stocks released would exceed the original total (approved in March) of 400m. But that excess isn
X·grokAI 评分6666 IEA同意完成释出剩余1亿桶石油，3月宣布的释油规模将超过4亿桶
IEA同意完成释出剩余1亿桶石油，并称3月宣布的石油释放规模将超过4亿桶。IEA还表示，柴油释出属于此前商定的约1亿桶原油及燃料紧急储备释出计划。
X·grokAI 评分7171 美国9月PPI同比上涨6.3%，环比上涨1.3%，能源价格单月上涨逾10%
美国9月PPI同比上涨6.3%、环比上涨1.3%，均超预期，能源价格单月上涨逾10%是主要推手。核心PPI同比和环比也均大幅超预期。
X·grokAI 评分4444 国际海事组织：伊朗战争以来波斯湾及周边逾110起航运袭击中仅3艘遇袭船只沉没
国际海事组织称，伊朗战争开始以来，波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡及阿曼湾发生逾110起航运袭击，遇袭船只中仅3艘沉没。过去约3周内发生了其中2起沉船事件。
X·grokAI 评分5353 9月美国帝国制造业指数升至25.5，高于预期12.0和前值7.6
9月帝国制造业指数升至25.5，高于预期的12.0和前值7.6。新订单指数升至23.2，前值为2.0；出货指数升至13.1，前值为-3.2。支付价格指数降至59.5，前值为63.1；就业指数降至10.3，前值为10.6。原文链接：https://t.co/Jld9SvT3hO
X·grokAI 评分3838 必读：中国官媒关于中国石油进口的评论：
必读：中国官媒关于中国石油进口的评论： 「……中国减少进口的举措超过其他国家释放战略石油储备的总和……」 原文： MUST READ: China state media op-ed on Chinese oil imports: “… China's initiative to reduce imports exceeds the sum of strategic oil reserves released by other countries, effectively blocking the vicious circle of out-of-control global oil
X·宏观AI 评分5757 Gregory Daco称PPI通胀报告中价格涨幅大且覆盖面广
Gregory Daco称，PPI通胀报告中的价格上涨幅度大、覆盖面广。能源是商品价格上涨的主要驱动因素，柴油价格迅速传导至机票和卡车运输价格；机械设备和酒店业利润率也上升。原文称能源推动了有记录以来幅度最大的商品价格上涨。
X·宏观AI 评分4545 伊朗海军称霍尔木兹海峡东部一艘违规油轮起火
伊朗海军称，霍尔木兹海峡东部一艘被其认定为“违规”的油轮起火；该消息是否得到确认仍待观察。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 PODCAST: Pleasure to join for a discussion about the war, why oil prices didn't reach $200 a…
PODCAST: Pleasure to join @Rory_Johnston for a discussion about the war, why oil prices didn't reach $200 a barrel, the global economy, Hormuz crossings, China and a lot more stuff. https://t.co/mRn6XSya27
X·宏观AI 评分7272 美国商业石油库存上周减少 1340 万桶，创 4 月以来最大单周降幅
美国商业石油库存上周减少 1340 万桶，创 4 月以来最大单周降幅。库存下降由原油、柴油和“其他”产品推动，其中“其他”产品主要是 NGLs；原油库存低于过去 5 年同期低点，并在通常应累库的时段继续下降。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 Tho to be clear, without a 1 pp of GDP increase in gold imports by China in 2026 its surplus would…
Tho to be clear, without a 1 pp of GDP increase in gold imports by China in 2026 its surplus would be way up -- and the latest export and import numbers point to a substantial net export contribution in 26 even with that surge on gold imports ... so the 26 imbalance is actually https://t.co/HgnRaIHk
X·宏观AI 评分88 Heads up that we're doing a rare Twitter space tonight with and .
Heads up that we're doing a rare Twitter space tonight with @DonMiami3 and @RealJohnGaltFla. Stop in, listen to our chat, say hi, disagree vehemently, insist that I'm paid by both the CIA and Tehran—it'll be a blast! 引用 @DonMiami3：Join us with @Rory_Johnston next Thursday for macro happy hour on o