X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of liberation day) levels -- annualized the non-petrol August goods deficit was $1.7 trillion or so 1/ https://t.co/JvMK3f2qKe
Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an “act of treason” a day after the central banker, Emmanuel Moulin, warned that the country risked being "strangled by interest rates" if it didn't address its public finances. 引用 @JLMelenchon：Le banqui
华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域 引用 @bobby79446955：@TJ_Research 怎么看鼠疫
I am certainly expecting goods deficits of 5% of GDP or more and goods and services deficits of 4% of GDP or more for the remainder of the year. Momentum on import side is clear ... notwithstanding Trump's tariffs 3/3 https://t.co/JPaVCd4fUl
To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics, conventional macroeconomics is currently winning. The August goods and services deficit was bigger than any deficit apart from those deficits associated with tariff front running 1/ https://t.co/MPrPSGOSh
The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and how quickly. In today's post, the authors trace tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices for U.S. consumer goods. https://t.co/qKgJSPqQKq
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/GQj8NrvCT3
纽约联储研究称，截至2026年2月，关税对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点；若没有关税，商品价格会略有下降。研究估算，关税税率每提高1个百分点，约四分之一会在一年内体现于消费者价格。
Brad Setser认为，关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于其预期。文中称，每提高1个百分点关税税率，约四分之一会在一年内反映到消费价格；引用纽约联储数据称，截至2026年2月，关税使商品价格通胀增加2.9个百分点，若无关税，商品价格将略有下降。
The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong print for Treasuries was in May; June and July were weak. But it sure looks like the world wants to finance San Francisco much than it wants to finance DC right now 2/2 https://t.co/yfjkrSBup4
The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit. How is that being financed -- strong foreign demand for US risk assets ... 1/2 https://t.co/NUsmoSJYRh
I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural rebalancing instrument” would work. I have also been thinking about some kind of special safeguard tied to macroeconomic imbalances, which sounds similar EU wheels are moving
"the European Commission has no direct tool to respond to currency undervaluation and the European Central Bank does not treat trade-related currency misalignment as part of its role. So currency policy must also become part of Europe’s trade strategy" Pascal Lamy, in the
Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并将当前定价描述为危机交割定价。引用内容给出的 6/10/2026 Dated Brent 评估价为 $125.53/bbl，实物价差为 $19.105/bbl；作者表示，高昂的运输成本是部分原因，但这种价差也不会出现在疲弱或正常市场。
Gosh, $200/bbl oil? Who would ever put such an outrageous number out there... 😅 引用 @OilHeadlineNews：Vitol chief warns of tanker shortage and risk of $200-a-barrel oil Head of world’s largest independent oil trader says shipping squeeze is creating new bottleneck despite increased Gulf flows @sta
Early in the war I wondered why we didn't see more ships risking the journey across Hormuz for big profits despite obvious danger Easily enough spread—early in the war Gulf oil prices were functionally negative—to pay for sky-high insurance & crew hazard pay Well, we got there: https://t.co/f8IwKE
Peter Harrell on the Franco-German proposals to strengthen Europe's response to the second China shock 引用 @petereharrell：Lets unpack the new Franco-German paper proposing fundamental changes to how the EU manages trade policy and which, if implemented, would mark the most significant change to EU-C
I do think tariff differentials matter, not just the absolute level -- and so do America's trade partners. Everyone last year negotiated to get a slightly lower tariff than their neighbors/ trade competitors. The impact of 12.5% on China was muted by going to 10% on almost
Good morning. From the FT: "A sharp sell-off in US government bonds is starting to reverberate across corporate America, forcing companies to overhaul their borrowing plans and even raising the spectre of defaults among the most lowly rated businesses." Remember the historical https://t.co/tzvwm7W2N
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy估算，过去7至10天平均每天约有1400万桶油品通过霍尔木兹海峡，其中原油约1200万桶、成品油约200万桶。该数据统计的是通过海峡的流量，未计入绕行管道输送的额外油量。
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Participates in a Fireside Chat at the @PAChamber https://t.co/2gibTJVzEa
Brad Setser称，法院裁定IEEPA关税违法后，特朗普政府选择基本重建10%的关税，并豁免USMC贸易、药品和电子产品。引用者对此提出异议，称此前特朗普政府已对所有商品加征20%的IEEPA芬太尼关税及“解放日”关税，并称美国最高法院推翻了这些关税。
Red dye will be added to all US diesel for both broad highway fuel tax relief and to remind voters of which colour to vote for in the midterms. 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP TO UNVEIL PLAN ON RED-DYED DIESEL ON MONDAY: OFFICIALS
so we are where we are ... US manufacturing and ag exports are down 2.5% of GDP from their levels in the 1990s ... and are incredibly small v the US economy (~ 4 % of GDP) ... and that decline hasn't actually been offset by growing IP exports (even counting "irish" FDI profits) https://t.co/LZqI4SJo
It also seems obvious to me that "China" together with the dollar's strength (especially v Asia) explains why manufacturing output stopped growing with overall output after 2000 (a break from 70 to 99 ...) (the rising real deficit in goods indicates this wasn't just a shift in https://t.co/uCTcqXPM
A few comments on the China shock debate, from a more "macro" point of view that sets aside the vicious debate about "identification" -- There was clearly a downturn in manufacturing output around the time of China's WTO entry (it doesn't recover til 06/07) 1/ https://t.co/MWnemz6KXK
中国品牌在英国9月新车EV销售中的占比超过20%，文中列举了比亚迪、Jaecoo、Chery、Omoda、长安和吉利。Brad Setser 引用《金融时报》关于英国商业大臣权衡对中国电动汽车加征关税的报道：https://t.co/HI5InKlpmg
美国转向内燃机汽车之际，美国关税阻碍通用汽车和福特通过中国合资企业向美国销售汽车，也令特斯拉不愿从上海向美国供货。关税还阻碍中国高端电动汽车生产商。
China has the capacity to produce 50-55 million cars -- The domestic market has fallen from ~ 25m cars to ~20 m cars this year China could easily export 2-3m cars to the US AND its 1.5m cars to Europe https://t.co/3rQ50C7jvW 引用 @BaldingsWorld：One of my favorite parts of this is most everyone miss
Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewhat. Had heard that even before this latest escalation CENTCOM was regularly intercepting
Some questions I have about the recent escalation of Iranian strikes: https://t.co/hsAzkec3dE 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewh
Guys, I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is safe right now
China rebalanced away from property investment and back toward exports -- bigly. numbers are very clear That is the issue that the world (apart from the US President, who prefers to dream of arches, golf courses and ballrooms) is now confronting in various ways https://t.co/7kD46OJFMa 引用 @Balding
If I had to nitpick I'd actually say it's the lack of refineries 引用 @staunovo：Trump says refineries are reason for high gasoline price #oott
Wish Secretary Bessent would have said something similar at Ashville ... Oh well. "the house" is not currently taking the lead on exchange rate issues
France &Germany recognize that their trade defenses will always be tested absent a significant adjustment in the RMB -- (they are 100% right that broad rebalancing won't happen without exchange rate adjustment; there isn't a strong link now between Chinese demand growth and https://t.co/ibENlkkL5b
UKMTO报告霍尔木兹海峡又发生一起油轮袭击，船员据报仍在机舱内扑救火情。自上周三以来，UKMTO报告了11起已确认袭击和13起事件。
I did not realize it was controversial in some quarters that changes in the overall trade balance lead to changes in the composition of employment and output (and since sectoral employments tends to be concentrated, pronounced regional shifts) 2/2 https://t.co/vvW1Vq6FLS 引用 @Brad_Setser：A few com
Standard ballpark calculations would support the argument that the surge in Chinese imports (~1 pp pf GDP, which drove a similar increase in non oil imports) would lead to a reduction in manufacturing employment of ~ 1m (1/4 of the 3.5 or so lost in early 00s) ... especially as 引用 @joefrancis505：Th
and kind of shocked that there isn't general recognition that the ten years after China entered the WTO were not in aggregate great years for the US economy (jobless recovery, housing bubble fueled by imbalances, global financial crisis, great recession) -- certainly they weren't