8月美国消费者信贷增长1.9%，循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
#宏观/数据
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分4141 X·宏观AI 评分99 Recent rise in advisors asking me how to think about the various tax avoidance strategies that they…
Recent rise in advisors asking me how to think about the various tax avoidance strategies that they are getting bombarded with every day. My answer is pretty simple - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
X·宏观AI 评分5252 布伦特原油短暂跌破100美元后回升，IEA称必要时可追加释放战略储备
布伦特原油一度跌破100美元，随后回升至100美元上方。原文引用IEA负责人周三的表态称，成员国已准备好在必要时从战略储备中追加释放原油，并将优先保障供应偏紧的柴油。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance?
Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance? 引用 @SantiagoAuFund：Higher rates inject more money into the economy, that money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Good morning.
Good morning. Europe is facing higher government bond yields yet again. France, now the "high beta" economy yield-wise, is leading a regional rise that increasingly reflects a two-way dynamic with US Treasuries (albeit with varying sensitivities). #economy #bonds #yields #markets https://t.co/o1Vdac
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 #BLSdata
The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 https://t.co/Qzgc4PuZfu #BLSdata https://t.co/b5UToXkLi1
X·宏观AI 评分4646 贝森特称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，债务占GDP比重可能迅速下降
贝森特称，美国可通过经济增长和支出约束扭转债务轨迹，使债务占GDP比重开始下降，并表示这一变化可能很快发生。他还称美国第三季度经济增速明显高于3%，且这一增速可以持续。
X·宏观AI 评分2828 今天币市小跳水其实UNI是先行信号，如果细看昨晚UNI就有点撑不住了。也是上周六10月3号推文聊到的，9月底到10月下旬银行准备金（美元流动性的核心）有一个收紧，11月之后慢慢回升，所以10月整体流动…
今天币市小跳水其实UNI是先行信号，如果细看昨晚UNI就有点撑不住了。也是上周六10月3号推文聊到的，9月底到10月下旬银行准备金（美元流动性的核心）有一个收紧，11月之后慢慢回升，所以10月整体流动性都是偏紧的。 https://t.co/RQGgUmTXMu 引用 @qinbafrank：昨天大饼昨天画门，个人角度看核心原因还是流动性近期还是在收紧。上上周银行准备金在3.03万亿，上周降到2.96万亿，本周9月30之前的一周内每个工作日准备金余额的平均值2.94万亿，但是但到本周三收盘准备金余额突然降到2.88万亿美金，相当于当天又被抽走了600多亿美金，对应的财政部TGA账户余额也回升
X·宏观AI 评分3434 A fifth straight week of gains for private payrolls which added an average of 23,750 jobs for…
A fifth straight week of gains for private payrolls which added an average of 23,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sept 19 per @adpresearch https://t.co/JvHdjkEXbo
X·宏观AI 评分3333 The United States’ trade deficit in goods and services increased to $105.6 billion in August.
The United States’ trade deficit in goods and services increased to $105.6 billion in August. https://t.co/iabpVcJ3yV https://t.co/16wG9cB3CP https://t.co/tLG11OhGkZ
X·宏观AI 评分5555 美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于预估和上月水平
美国8月贸易逆差扩大至1056亿美元，高于1021亿美元的预估和上月的928亿美元，为“解放日”以来最大。进口增长4.3%，出口增长1.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分1717 no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now.…
no real need to splice and dice the data -- the deficit is on a train ride straight up right now. Heavy investment in an economy with a large fiscal deficit means importing capital from the rest of the world. Or put differently the US needs the world's imports to meet its
X·宏观AI 评分3333 The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of…
The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of liberation day) levels -- annualized the non-petrol August goods deficit was $1.7 trillion or so 1/ https://t.co/JvMK3f2qKe
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an…
Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accuses the head of France's central bank of an “act of treason” a day after the central banker, Emmanuel Moulin, warned that the country risked being "strangled by interest rates" if it didn't address its public finances. 引用 @JLMelenchon：Le banqui
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available.
Statistics on services supplied through affiliates of multinational enterprises are now available. https://t.co/CgtKCyhDLC https://t.co/Eyohy3bs8B
X·宏观AI 评分2020 119BN of 3's 10's and 30's for sale over the next 3 days
119BN of 3's 10's and 30's for sale over the next 3 days
X·宏观AI 评分1111 The cost of heating oil in Maine is up 80% from last year.
The cost of heating oil in Maine is up 80% from last year. https://t.co/0iD19D4PbG https://t.co/x9Lqt1vwmx
X·宏观AI 评分2929 Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision :
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV Watch live: https://t.co/3uONmVD82z Learn more about Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: https://t.co/tWe5lT3FDv
X·宏观AI 评分6060 印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨
印度9月石油消费同比增长3.4%至1925.9万吨，达到当月最高需求水平。8月消费量由1860.6万吨下修至1854.5万吨；9月柴油消费同比增长5.6%至716.4万吨，汽油消费同比增长8.0%。
X·宏观AI 评分22 Welp. I'm short this thing for the next two months or so.
Welp. I'm short this thing for the next two months or so. https://t.co/ouflaEgKIc
X·宏观AI 评分3737 A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed…
A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed enthusiasm about the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered the bull market. https://t.co/YWr3Vi8dP1 https://t.co/oC6gDrTLjg
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美国9月ISM服务业指数报54.9，通胀指数升至2022年以来高位
美国9月ISM服务业指数为54.9，下降0.5点。活动指数为56.5，下降5.2点；新订单为59.8，下降1.1点；就业为50.1，上升2.3点；积压订单为56.6，上升1点；通胀指数为74，上升1.4点，为2022年以来高位。原文将燃料、关税和利率列为成本因素。
X·宏观AI 评分6565 秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计2026年全球鱼粉产量将降至十年低位
秘鲁未允许恢复鳀鱼捕捞，行业协会预计全球鱼粉产量将在2026年降至十年低位。原文称鱼粉和鱼油价格处于纪录高位。
X·宏观AI 评分4242 电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模接近9000亿美元，占GDP近3%
电脑及相关零部件进口年化规模约9000亿美元，占GDP略低于3%，较2024年占GDP的比例上升逾2个百分点。其余贸易部分的逆差仍小于2024年，关税实施前的抢进口造成的扭曲仍在消化。
X·宏观AI 评分3535 To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics…
To repeat an old line, in the battle between Trump's tariffs and conventional macroeconomics, conventional macroeconomics is currently winning. The August goods and services deficit was bigger than any deficit apart from those deficits associated with tariff front running 1/ https://t.co/MPrPSGOSh
X·宏观AI 评分1818 30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 #BLSdata
30 percent of workers age 25 and over had been with employer 10 or more years, January 2026 https://t.co/SBhSrXhUBS #BLSdata https://t.co/GQj8NrvCT3
X·宏观AI 评分5656 纽约联储研究称关税截至2026年2月对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点
纽约联储研究称，截至2026年2月，关税对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点；若没有关税，商品价格会略有下降。研究估算，关税税率每提高1个百分点，约四分之一会在一年内体现于消费者价格。
X·宏观AI 评分2323 EIA expects lower natural gas and propane heating costs this winter. #STEO
EIA expects lower natural gas and propane heating costs this winter. #STEO 💻 https://t.co/B65OLrQr4J Register now for the Tuesday, October 13, NASEO webinar featuring our newest Winter Fuels Outlook. 💻 https://t.co/MLrOGdIjlW https://t.co/o3M5ARnLKB
X·宏观AI 评分6060 Brad Setser称关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于预期
Brad Setser认为，关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于其预期。文中称，每提高1个百分点关税税率，约四分之一会在一年内反映到消费价格；引用纽约联储数据称，截至2026年2月，关税使商品价格通胀增加2.9个百分点，若无关税，商品价格将略有下降。
X·宏观AI 评分1515 The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong…
The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong print for Treasuries was in May; June and July were weak. But it sure looks like the world wants to finance San Francisco much than it wants to finance DC right now 2/2 https://t.co/yfjkrSBup4
X·宏观AI 评分3535 The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit.
The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit. How is that being financed -- strong foreign demand for US risk assets ... 1/2 https://t.co/NUsmoSJYRh
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural…
I am more open to a European 301 than Mr. Lamy -but do want to better understand how a "“structural rebalancing instrument” would work. I have also been thinking about some kind of special safeguard tied to macroeconomic imbalances, which sounds similar EU wheels are moving
X·宏观AI 评分7171 Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并指向危机交割定价
Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并将当前定价描述为危机交割定价。引用内容给出的 6/10/2026 Dated Brent 评估价为 $125.53/bbl，实物价差为 $19.105/bbl；作者表示，高昂的运输成本是部分原因，但这种价差也不会出现在疲弱或正常市场。
X·财经博主AI 评分1818 Kinda interesting that everyone focused on the rolling 12W changes in open vs. closed and when it…
Kinda interesting that everyone focused on the rolling 12W changes in open vs. closed and when it got most pronounced everyone was freaking out. last two weeks with really good model releases (Opus 5.5, Sol 6.1) closed actually TOOK back share on volume. It's 52% open - 48% https://t.co/cDMNZtwUcd
X·宏观AI 评分1717 30 year TIPS at 3.4% is an amazing way to preserve wealth IMO.
30 year TIPS at 3.4% is an amazing way to preserve wealth IMO. https://t.co/NjK2WFdDZq
X·宏观AI 评分5050 霍尔木兹海峡原油运输恢复后油价为何未大幅回落？
作者讨论霍尔木兹海峡原油运输恢复后油价仍未大幅回落的原因，并称关键在成本。文中援引Kpler统计，沙特、UAE、伊拉克、阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔9月原油及凝析油出口约1470万桶。
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Good morning.
Good morning. From the FT: "A sharp sell-off in US government bonds is starting to reverberate across corporate America, forcing companies to overhaul their borrowing plans and even raising the spectre of defaults among the most lowly rated businesses." Remember the historical https://t.co/tzvwm7W2N
X·宏观AI 评分7070 Vitol CEO Russell Hardy估算霍尔木兹海峡近7至10天日均通行约1400万桶
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy估算，过去7至10天平均每天约有1400万桶油品通过霍尔木兹海峡，其中原油约1200万桶、成品油约200万桶。该数据统计的是通过海峡的流量，未计入绕行管道输送的额外油量。
X·宏观AI 评分88 Speaking of higher borrowing costs and vulnerable sectors:
Speaking of higher borrowing costs and vulnerable sectors: This from the front page of today's WSJ.👇 #economy #markets #housing #bonds #yields #mortgages @WSJ https://t.co/wolgoOZkpY
X·宏观AI 评分1616 It also seems obvious to me that "China" together with the dollar's strength (especially v Asia)…
It also seems obvious to me that "China" together with the dollar's strength (especially v Asia) explains why manufacturing output stopped growing with overall output after 2000 (a break from 70 to 99 ...) (the rising real deficit in goods indicates this wasn't just a shift in https://t.co/uCTcqXPM