X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Korea is heading for a current account surplus of close to $500 billion this year -- That of course raises the question of how is the surplus being recycled. Korean purchases of US equities is definitely a big part of the answer, but no longer the entire answer 1/many https://t.co/R6Pq60XPjJ
Bottom -- very little has so far flowed into the US bond market (to fund either the borrowing to build the data centers that use the chips or the US fiscal deficit) ... but it isn't clear that the old equity outflows offsetting the surplus equilibrium will persist going forward
Equity outflows were almost the entire answer in the first half of the year (foreigners selling Korean stocks because of concentration limits/ Koreans buying foreign stocks) but not in July and August 2/ https://t.co/V1iKtMdXzi
Using Grok @Bot is like hiring a super smart, hard-working person for peanuts 引用 @B_doong2daddy：First month I paid $200 Cursor Ultra just to try Grok Bot. I said to myself.. it's okay even I don't find it worth it, I will still learn something. I learned so much since I started Grok Bot + Cursor. I
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the day) https://t.co/GnyMtCzoZX
Tensor10 (see what I did there having added AMD) chart/table https://t.co/JidNwVlRhK
房贷申请连续第五周下降，截至10月2日当周减少4.2%。30年期房贷利率升至7.49%，较前一周上升近20个基点，为近三年来最高水平。
8月，消费者循环信贷余额下降48亿美元，降幅为2024年11月以来最大。循环信贷主要包括信用卡。
One Big Bet US stocks have held up in the face of surging bond yields, corporate spreads, and higher oil prices. The AI mania is the only thing left supporting the market. https://t.co/IYnRYJhBLq https://t.co/QXkeGEyneI
NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's competitiveness problems: https://t.co/pVW13W1M69
With everyone talking about Europe’s various crises these days, listen to @NewLeftEViews explain what is and isn’t going wrong right now. 引用 @tracyalloway：NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's co
If you can think of a popular consumer brand in America, its chart probably looks like this https://t.co/a2aWu3vaJ2
There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment. In today's post, the authors study this topic for U.S. small businesses using data from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey to examine the 12-month forward employment & revenue expectations of AI users.
Initial jobless claims down to 197k vs. 200k est. & 199k prior; continuing claims at 1.716M vs. 1.700M est. & 1.699M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.6k), IL (+1.2k), & NY (+1.0k); greatest decreases in HI (-0.3k), MI (-0.2k), & MD (-0.1k) https://t.co/sW75FYCuOk
If SpaceX ($SPCX) was in the $SPX now, AI-related stocks would be 51% of the index. With Anthropic and OpenAI coming public, add them to the $SPX in 2027 and AI would be ~55% of the $SPX. The last time a single theme was >50% of the $SPX was the railroads in the 19th century. 引用 @AlexMalitas：AI-
昨天视频下面留言：“SP500的EPS最大的贡献者就是NVDA和MU，占了1/3，所以SP500的估值并不能简单说是便宜” 下面是标普等权，15.9倍，也低于今年3月份，比上年的3月，15倍，要高。高了大概6%。 估值在低位的结论不变，我就是一个在数据上非常执着的杠精 https://t.co/jIByYRLd9o
The Trump administration said Thursday that it would suspend an immigration program for multiple tech firms, including Microsoft, alleging widespread abuse of a worker visa system https://t.co/9uAsxGpVLZ
全球贸易在2026年上半年展现出超出预期的韧性，但不同领域表现不一。服务贸易和部分地区更易受到中东冲突影响。
Bullish sentiment jumped to 40.3% vs. 34.6% in latest @AAIISentiment (week ending 10/7/26) while bearish sentiment declined sharply to 39.0% from 46.5% the prior week ... this week’s special question polls AAII members on allocating new cash https://t.co/VvsNHORes1
Brazilian stocks this year are up 40% (in dollar terms). Haven't been paying close attention to that market, but it must have a lot of AI stocks.
Latest 3Q2026 real GDP estimate (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed GDPNow model is +3.6% , down from October 6 prior read of +3.7% https://t.co/Q9OgM6Ykg2
HSBC has a new note out giving its clients a primer on perps (perpetual futures) https://t.co/wjlvbiJmFF
美国9月非农就业人数基本持平。
FYI, on the growing risks of repeated US interventions to sway market pricing: https://t.co/36nBr4ORK1 @FT #economy #markets https://t.co/OcYTddGvF9
沃勒从几周前呼吁“给通胀降温一个机会”，转为暗示可能进一步加息。他将此归因于能源价格上涨、AI建设规模扩大和更多关税。
特朗普表示，美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗。文章称，他可能意识到选前强硬言论推高了原油价格，并讽刺其言论是否可信。
Regular reminder that this kind of thinking has always been wrong. https://t.co/HmwjhAmYQH 引用 @Forbes：Jeff Bezos Claims AI Could Allow For 3-Day Workweeks And One-Income Families https://t.co/cpgZl69ut8 https://t.co/00QCFHBOq5
Lisa Abramowicz 表示，FT 一篇关于 OpenAI 营收低于最初报道的报道，促使甲骨文股价下跌超过 5%。她还称，英伟达和 AMD 至微软的损失扩大，并将此作为科技行业对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 敞口较大的迹象。原文链接：https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/2108242872470319492
Many nasty replies to my piece yesterday on flatlining model revenue b/c they were highly confident OpenAI ARR surged to 70bln based based on an unsourced leak. Lots mocking the use of @tickerplus as an estimate. Turns it was... 50bln. smh https://t.co/MQWQAAMi79 https://t.co/X47HrfOpom 引用 @BobEU
FT: OpenAI ARR比先前市场预估的少了200亿，市场下跌 这种新闻怎么理解？ 1. 首先ARR不是营收，你可以拿1个月去年化，1周去年化，或者1天去年化，除非内部改标准（比如上年用1个月年化，今年用1天年化），那就是很严重的欺诈，不然只要标准一样没问题，看的是同比增速。当然上市后有监管的衡量方法 2.
Funny thing about $SPY is it's down 60bp and realizing 10 vol annualized. $TLT fell 7% in 5 weeks. Just imagine what that would smell like for SPY
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低迷一些，SET UP好
At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 for OpenAI+Anthropic *together* to reach 1tln in ARR.
台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国9月贸易顺差为500亿美元。按年化计算，两地顺差合计约9000亿美元；作者称，过去一年这一规模占全球GDP的比重增加了超过0.5个百分点，并将全球经常账户冲击比作20世纪70年代的石油冲击。
And a few other technical points here -- (1) the IMF itself has long indicated it puts the most weight on the "current account" model, which now implies a 21% plus undervaluation (4% surplus is over 3% of GDP higher than the 0.5 to 1 % of GDP norm, each pp of excess surplus is
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtcxex #BLSdata https://t.co/kzajZpNwHW
Yes, they are traitors aiding an invasion and they deserve the fate of traitors 引用 @xenocosmography：Anyone facilitating the entry of these fiends into the country should be considered an accessory to their crimes, and face draconian punishment upon the restoration of patriotic government. ... https
Starlink is licensed in over 165 countries and has spent five years complying with every single law and requirement of the government of India, so why still no license? Is Ambani the real boss of India? 引用 @malpani：The government is more interested in protecting the interests of crony capitalists
Anthropic承诺向Genesis Mission投入1.5亿美元，以加大对科学研究和技术发现的投入。公司还将向15个以上联邦机构提供Claude和技术支持。