X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
昨晚30年期美债拍卖数据整体表现也是很不错的，超出市场预期，有效缓解了市场对美国长端美债需求疲软的担忧。具体拍卖数据如下： 1、得标利率 5.618%高于预发行利率（5.618%与预发行利率基本持平，未出现明显的尾部利差），创下2000年以来的最高水平，反映出投资者对长端美债要求较高的风险补偿。 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的十年期美债拍卖结果是一个好的信号： 1）美国390亿美元10年期国债拍卖中标收益率5.3%，低于预发行利率、即市场定价预期； 2）认购倍数2.77倍明显高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍； https://t.co/LTLpBuH9Bw
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the day) https://t.co/GnyMtCzoZX
房贷申请连续第五周下降，截至10月2日当周减少4.2%。30年期房贷利率升至7.49%，较前一周上升近20个基点，为近三年来最高水平。
Druck now. Bloomberg Bro Asymetric information The House. Arrogant prick in despair @SecScottBessent https://t.co/Ps8Vtz5VVA 引用 @RealNickMugalli：Treasury secretary Bessent confirms that Stan Druckenmiller lost a bunch of money like citadel securities shorting bonds… He also acknowledged his old s
As French yields continue to climb and pull other European yields higher, there's a question on many people's minds: What is the circuit breaker, and when does it kick in? Is it endogenous? If so, we are likely still a ways away from its trigger point, especially given how
Waller表示，他预计还需额外加息，以支持通胀更及时回到2%的目标。加息时间有一定灵活性，不必安排在连续会议，但应在可接受的时间内完成。
8月，消费者循环信贷余额下降48亿美元，降幅为2024年11月以来最大。循环信贷主要包括信用卡。
NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's competitiveness problems: https://t.co/pVW13W1M69
With everyone talking about Europe’s various crises these days, listen to @NewLeftEViews explain what is and isn’t going wrong right now. 引用 @tracyalloway：NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's co
On October 6, 2026, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman gave remarks on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV https://t.co/ubwQHalP7D
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox's @IngrahamAngle that he hopes the Fed will keep an "open mind" on rate hikes and consider the example of the 1990s and Greenspan. What's interesting about this oft-cited analogy is that there's the 1996-97 Greenspan who resisted hiking https://t.co/xSQ2dV
There are clearly some Fed policymakers who favor an unconditional higher policy path, but the center of the Committee remains focused on incoming data rather than pre-committing to further tightening. https://t.co/eq6vcf4ZRE
美联储理事沃勒表示，市场定价反映美联储还将加息两次，但两次加息不必安排在连续会议上，应在可接受的时间内完成。文章还提到市场关注美联储点阵图。
美联储理事沃勒表示，若经济数据继续符合预期，他预计还会加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到2%的目标；他同时称，加息时点有一定灵活性。原文链接：https://t.co/rjvidGfLRW
现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https://t.co/Ctd7WzHeE1 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
PODCAST: Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the oil market, Iran, President Trump, and China. Spotify 🔉: https://t.co/PiC6w5OV5n Apple Podcast 🔉: https://t.co/Mao4AlL8XE Youtube 📺: https://t.co/CsZTFBsrp9 Substack 📄: https://t.co/AOQ3kFzqt3
The Trump administration said Thursday that it would suspend an immigration program for multiple tech firms, including Microsoft, alleging widespread abuse of a worker visa system https://t.co/9uAsxGpVLZ
全球贸易在2026年上半年展现出超出预期的韧性，但不同领域表现不一。服务贸易和部分地区更易受到中东冲突影响。
Brazilian stocks this year are up 40% (in dollar terms). Haven't been paying close attention to that market, but it must have a lot of AI stocks.
Latest 3Q2026 real GDP estimate (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed GDPNow model is +3.6% , down from October 6 prior read of +3.7% https://t.co/Q9OgM6Ykg2
Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming threat of Hurricane Isaias [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/m9GpyVH9SS
美国9月非农就业人数基本持平。
FYI, on the growing risks of repeated US interventions to sway market pricing: https://t.co/36nBr4ORK1 @FT #economy #markets https://t.co/OcYTddGvF9
沃勒从几周前呼吁“给通胀降温一个机会”，转为暗示可能进一步加息。他将此归因于能源价格上涨、AI建设规模扩大和更多关税。
美国总统特朗普称，华盛顿不会在11月3日美国中期选举前攻击伊朗。正文提出三种可能解释：美伊谈判正在进行、特朗普意在安抚德黑兰；这是一种转移注意力的策略，攻击仍可能发生；或是在对石油市场进行口头干预。
特朗普表示，美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗。文章称，他可能意识到选前强硬言论推高了原油价格，并讽刺其言论是否可信。
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
I so so so badly want this war to end, but imho it feels strategically unwise to broadcast in writing that you won’t attack the country with which you’ve been stuck in a months-long tit-for-tat
台湾9月贸易顺差接近250亿美元，韩国9月贸易顺差为500亿美元。按年化计算，两地顺差合计约9000亿美元；作者称，过去一年这一规模占全球GDP的比重增加了超过0.5个百分点，并将全球经常账户冲击比作20世纪70年代的石油冲击。
China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessment does in fact matter And one technical matter -- the IMF policy recommendations for China include a significant fiscal consolidation, which all else equal would push China's current account surplus up and implies a bigger real 引用 @niubi：very sensiti
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury is targeting the remnants of Iran’s shadow fleet: the aging network of tankers the regime relies on to move billions of dollars’ worth of petroleum and petroleum products to foreign markets. Today’s action effectively
Very good piece "The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe" 2/2 https://t.co/eOgu6xEn7g
One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actually vital to bringing more balance to China's global trade. Domestic demand growth doesn't spill over into demand for European -- other other -- goods anymore. Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export https://t.co/fkbc3D02qv
The complete argument for why exchange rate adjustment does in fact matter, and why it is the right thing for China's trade partners to ask for can be found here. Europe cares more about whether China is moving ever further away from external balance than about how China
有经验数据支持，2023年以来中国出口增速相对全球贸易增长的加快，与2022年以来人民币贬值有关；汇率对出口的影响存在滞后。
And to be clear, the immediate issue isn't bringing China's surplus is down -- it is limiting the pace at which it rises. the 07 to 12 RMB appreciation was in fact central to limiting the nominal rise in China's surplus and facilitating adjustment back then 2/2 https://t.co/e2zzeAZSgq
Korea and Taiwan combined to run a trade surplus of $800b if the September numbers are annualized. Up from $100b two years ago ... If sustained, this is consistent with a $1 trillion current account surplus in Korea and Taiwan next year. Crazy 1/2 https://t.co/HiM6BzK1At
36.9 percent of wage and salary workers could work at home in 2024–25 https://t.co/CI6Omtcxex #BLSdata https://t.co/kzajZpNwHW
Yes, they are traitors aiding an invasion and they deserve the fate of traitors 引用 @xenocosmography：Anyone facilitating the entry of these fiends into the country should be considered an accessory to their crimes, and face draconian punishment upon the restoration of patriotic government. ... https