X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
4/5 Concentration is only part of the story. Over the past year, the rolling 6-month correlation (green) has turned slightly negative. Another sign that the headline index conceals two different market experiences. https://t.co/HDiCAqPo3a
1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%. https://t.co/owS3WGJiom
On the flipside, it’s not obvious to me that the doomers have better arguments. But they’re definitely better at arguing, having sharpened the blade on message board the last 15 years.
https://t.co/Wso4U7pWv4 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
The IMF's standard approach has a hard time with a country with massive savings and a public sector that has real assets as well as large debts -- by all of the IMF's standard models, China's large augmented fiscal deficit should have generated a current account deficit ...
I am sure this reads well and appeals to many "ango-saxon" readers (and certain circles on the continent) who are apostles of creative destruction and the migration of Western economies out of high end manufactures to services ... https://t.co/o8sFz6OCXu
Once again. The idea that AI is only improving rapidly in verifiable domains like math is looking suspect. 引用 @TheAtlantic：Exclusive: Another prestigious award has gone to a writer who seems to have used AI as the crisis of trust in the literary world intensifies, @vauhinivara reports: https://t.co
Well, so much for the notion that the "deal" that the Trump administration did with the UK after "Liberation day" would give the US a leg up over China in the UK market ... 引用 @johnarnold：The UK is a relatively open auto market, with just 10% import tariffs and no quotas on both US and Chinese impo
作者指出，AI 实验室占总算力的份额关系到推理算力的测算，并以假设的 100 单位算力为例：若 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 使用 50 单位，其中 40% 用于推理，则推理算力为 20 单位。Marvell Technology 高管 David Lazovsky 称，数据中心基础设施中用于推理的比例 3 年前为三分之一，如今超过 60%，未来 2-3 年将迅速接近 90%。
Hut 8建设数据中心并与英伟达签订15年租约，英伟达作为租户以其信用支持建设融资，随后将空间交由Lambda安装GPU并出租。引用的SemiAnalysis称，该安排涉及约115K台Rubin GPU销售、Lambda收入约10%的分成，以及一个704 MW供电园区第7至第15年的空间；互联排队时间为4至7年。
The market is one big bet on AI based on hope for parabolic growth. That's a troubling situation when spending growth is looking increasingly linear. On @CNBCOvertime with @MelissaLeeCNBC yesterday to close out the week: https://t.co/1Btt8AHbPq
folks on here argued that following Moscow’s diesel pledge yesterday that Ukraine would be forced to stop its attacks on Russian refineries because it would somehow more explicitly tie them to US energy security. not sure Kyiv really cares or is receptive to this type of whining 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP
纽约时报称，胡塞武装今日对利雅得机场的袭击，已成为伊朗战争爆发以来沙特遭遇的最致命袭击。
🎁 The 2026 holiday season should deliver the strongest sales growth in 5 years. 📈 The @EY_Parthenon team forecasts a 5.2% rise in #holiday sales, the strongest gain since 2021, with real #retail sales growth around 2.9% & retail prices rising 2.3%. https://t.co/1eKwJyfkGk https://t.co/fLepKA
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普要求乌克兰领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并称“目标很多”。引用内容称，若基辅继续袭击俄炼油厂，泽连斯基将直接危及华盛顿与莫斯科之间一项涉及柴油的政治和经济协议。
We are told US treasury's are substantially outperforming other DM sovereign markets. If true why is the Treasury considering selling less of them? Wouldn't you want to take advantage of the relative strength? I would
Electricity production is the best metric for the true strength of any large-scale economy imo 引用 @a16z：Energy capacity = economic capacity, in one chart There are no low electricity, rich countries https://t.co/DTCmjh3kwv
The ridiculous arguments by Ambani’s army of Internet shills make no sense On the one hand, they say Starlink couldn’t possibly compete with the amazing low prices offered by Ambani’s de facto monopoly in India and then, in the same breath, they essentially claim that Starlink 引用 @aaronburnett：Som
Thank you @PrefShares for engaging with a constructive and thoughtful response. (anyone curious to read my original piece, go here: https://t.co/6a3fT1bER8) Let me take your points in turn. Retail. I like Amazon’s retail business too, and I agree there are losses buried in 引用 @PrefShares：Some th
NEW ODD LOTS: AI Is Upending The World Of Mathematics @tracyalloway and I talk to Justin Solomon, associate dean for engineering education at MIT, about the state of both math and math education, as OpenAI rolls out proof after proof https://t.co/E7tlGs5uvw
AAII 情绪调查显示，个人投资者股票敞口在 9 月升至 71.8%，为 2017 年以来最高。该比例高于 61.5% 的历史均值。
Posted earlier: FYI, on the growing risks of repeated US interventions to sway market pricing: https://t.co/36nBr4ORK1 @FT #economy #markets
美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至46.3，低于47.6的预期和前月的48.1。现况指数为44.7，低于50.1的预期和前月的50.9；预期指数升至47.3，高于45.7的预期和前月的46.3。https://t.co/BRcTwWzXnN
密歇根大学10月通胀预期显示，1年期为4.7%，低于4.8%预期、高于4.6%前值；5—10年期为3.5%，符合3.5%预期，高于3.4%前值。原文链接：https://t.co/9HseCJEdie
2026年9月，美国失业率基本持平在4.2%。
欧盟认为，中国事实上已接受一项配额，将大幅减少混合动力汽车和插电式混合动力汽车出口。过去12个月，欧盟从中国进口约55万辆混合动力汽车；过去3个月按年化计算，进口总量则更接近……
From Egan Jones. Since 2004, the Chinese economy has outgrown the US by basically any metric you can think of. But American financial assets have clobbered Chinese ones however you measure it. https://t.co/D3KUGuhtHG
Full headline is 1 days consumption? I mean thanks I guess. 引用 @financialjuice：Trump: Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Oil Market - Truth Social https://t.co/PcQn6r7Nxk
The September surge in Korean/ Taiwanese exports (mostly chips) strongly suggests that the September/October US deficit will also rise further ... (last US data point is August ... and the deficit has been trending up since May ...)
美国贸易逆差中的“AI”部分正在增长，主要体现为自墨西哥进口增加；台湾及其他代工厂也已大规模转向墨西哥进行最终组装。Foxconn位于墨西哥哈利斯科州埃尔萨尔托、组装英伟达 NVL72 服务器机架的工厂，目前供应的商品接近美国商品进口总额的 1%。
Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages https://t.co/uYWxlEglOv
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Found: America’s Missing Interest Income https://t.co/buuwWs0nTe For years I have argued that the official numbers on net interest payments by U.S. businesses were grossly understated. The latest revisions have vindicated my view. https://t.co/mdlxkKYNbF
2026.41: It’s Not You, It’s Me The best Stratechery content from the week of October 5, 2026, including drifting apart from Apple, Facebook complications, and the delightful absurdity of U.S.-China dynamics. https://t.co/nbkVuIAdgG
美国截至9月30日的财政年度预算赤字升至近2万亿美元，具体为1.993万亿美元。尽管经济表现稳健，美国赤字仍约占GDP的6%。
近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解； 引用 @qinbafrank：现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https:/
"Add that up, and the uprates squeeze about 1.5GW of new juice out of old nuclear. But the hyperscalers backing them get even more, nearly 6.9GW in total contracts." @TheNewGoldRush https://t.co/3LCmjQvzl8
42只AI股票自2024年1月以来贡献了标普成分股盈利增长、股价回报和资本支出的60%-80%。与此同时，60%的标普500成分股下跌20%或更多。
"AI accounts for the only positive trend in US construction spending, having risen by 38% since January 2024. Unfortunately the other three main categories are down since then (manufacturing -28%, commercial real estate -13% and residential -6%). That’s why the decline in planned https://t.co/9qvQpt
Some red meat for @friedberg in Cembalest's latest (cc: @Jason @theallinpod) >"By 2030-2031, 100% of Federal tax revenues are projected by the CBO to be needed just to pay entitlements and interest on the Federal debt. Something may have to give by then, possibly after a riot in https://t.co/rCamOH
美国政府是在卖币么？关于这一点，@glxyresearch的这篇分析值得看看。Galaxy没有把这一波美国政府相关比特币转入Coinbase Prime写成已经卖出。他们前天的链上帖做的是来源拆解和持仓核算：确认币进了美国政府在Coinbase https://t.co/wEz4ub3CCJ 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.