X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
At #NABE2026, @kylascan discusses the factors behind the vibecession: 1️⃣ Later achievement of life milestones 2️⃣ Media and social negative bias 3️⃣ Labor market frozen and slow wage growth 4️⃣ Price volatility and cumulative inflation @nabe_econ https://t.co/F7miIHID5P
Good morning. Where do G-7 sovereign yields stand entering the new week? Here’s the 10-year government debt lineup from the WSJ. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/JSRcursLeG
Much bigger and faster than the jump in Japan's exports in the 70s for example ...
"The word fear doesn't exist in the Saudi dictionary" -- Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the opening of the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh today.
While Chinese exports of machinery, electronics and cars are set to almost double over the last 6 years ... No wonder container traffic is so unbalanced ... 3/3 https://t.co/m9a1k3xnww
European exports of machinery, electronics and cars to China weigh about half as much as they did 6 years ago ... 2/3 https://t.co/y9hI8yZvfE
A different way of looking at trade -- trade in kilos Europe now imports (by weight) more machinery, electronics and cars from China than from the rest of the world combined 1/3 https://t.co/K8umSBNnvj
欧盟从中国进口有机化学品的重量大幅上升，甚至高于俄罗斯入侵后的时期。按重量看，欧洲目前从中国进口的机械、电子产品和汽车，超过从世界其他地区进口的总和。
US economic data have increasingly been disappointing analyst expectations, with the Bloomberg US economic surprise index turning negative in the past few weeks. This is edifying concerns that consumers will soon run out of steam to keep spending as much as prices keep rising. https://t.co/Ehiz8hI2f
汽油价格与选票，此次中期选举民主党一定会横扫么？高盛这张图将民主党通用选票领先优势与美国平均零售汽油价格叠加对比：民主党的领先优势在伊朗战争爆发导致汽油价格飙升后逐步扩大，两组数据近期朝同一方向运动。而且油价还稍稍有点领先信号的意思。 https://t.co/CnlS7DwoBo 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
Lol Trump’s deal wasn’t even an energy ceasefire proper, it was a “refinery-for-refinery” proposal. Only problem: Ukraine only has one damaged refinery that matters little Russia has upward of 36 oil refineries constituting the world’s third largest refinery fleet by capacity https://t.co/GpODaZ
Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude prices. https://t.co/6tDa0MtJXk
Regarding Hormuz transit figures and directional certainty: We have up to date numbers/estimates for, say, yesterday; we just know that they are likely understated. Dark transits are typically identified with a lag, so the count revisions drift higher over time. As of right
As this chart (h/t @Mike_Weilandt) shows, periods of CNY depreciation/ weakness have consistently been associated with Chinese export outperformance. (the IMF China team ignored this from 22-24, and as a result missed the jump up in China's surplus) Time to get back to BoP https://t.co/ow8GUgbld2
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump claims that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy truce" (note this is the 2nd time Trump has made a similar announcement, although this time it comes after a Russia-US diesel on diesel) https://t.co/WMF4kA7e6P
Trump claims both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an “energy ceasefire” Now where have I heard that before? https://t.co/moM0P4XgOa
What does a Fed hawk listen for on a factory floor? At industrial-hardware maker Jergens in Cleveland, Beth Hammack heard that price has fallen to third in importance on customers' lists, behind quality and speed.
Hey, NABE Annual Meeting attendees! We’re talking all things BEA data at our booth. Swing by for the latest GDP stats and lots more. @nabe_econ https://t.co/QBhDvr0Iyo
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在10月15日会议前，敦促成员国考虑从战略石油储备中进一步释放柴油。原文未说明拟释放的数量或具体执行安排。
A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE 引用 @DeItaone：ZELENSKIY SAYS TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS NEWS FOR HIM -AXIOS ZELENSKIY SAYS IF RUSSIANS AG
Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios 1️⃣ Favorable: gradual erosion of US Dollar along with creation of a diverse global multipolar monetary ecosystem 2️⃣ Worrisome: sudden collapse of USD before other systems are mature and robust: global liquidity shortage @nabe_econ https://t.co/OlUuV5
泽连斯基称，他与加拿大总理卡尼、芬兰总统斯图布及北约秘书长吕特讨论了特朗普宣布的能源停火，乌克兰支持停火，并表示俄罗斯也应支持。乌方正在等待美方提供细节；原作者补充称，泽连斯基没有与特朗普本人讨论此事，并提出俄罗斯进一步施压时乌方是否会减少对能源设施的打击仍是问题。
Moscow’s pledge to stop hitting Ukrainian energy assets carried the same weight as its boosted diesel exports commitment. 引用 @FirstSquawk：RUSSIA HIT KHARKIV’S MAIN POWER PLANT HOURS AFTER TRUMP ANNOUNCED AN ‘ENERGY CEASEFIRE’, WITH ZELENSKY CONFIRMING THE HIT ON CHP-5 — A MAJOR HEAT-AND-POWER FACIL
特朗普威胁称，如果基辅不停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，就将终止Purl。Purl是由北约管理、基辅的盟友购买美国制造武器并供应给乌克兰的计划。
Remember two weeks ago when risk premium sceptics were looking at ACM and saying risk premiums were falling not rising. Where are the sceptics today. Using one model is stupid but thinking risk premiums were falling back then was even stupiderer https://t.co/KnWYUsuzHk
https://t.co/Wso4U7pWv4 US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries
And its standard fiscal advice would more or less result in a much bigger current account surplus -- i.e. it wants China to rely more on exports (think the advice used to be a 7 pp consolidation over 10ys, though that good downplayed for s-term cyclical reasons in the last A4)
But key points in the essay were asserted not demonstrated -- this one for example "As cheap imports undercut traditional producers and provide low-cost inputs, labour and capital have shifted towards more productive industries" what industries are expanding on a scale able to
But as policy advice and an honest assessment of the China challenge I found it a bit thin -- suck it up and move into higher value added niches doesn't cut it when China wants all those niches too, and has been quite successful in capturing many of them /end
Well, so much for the notion that the "deal" that the Trump administration did with the UK after "Liberation day" would give the US a leg up over China in the UK market ... 引用 @johnarnold：The UK is a relatively open auto market, with just 10% import tariffs and no quotas on both US and Chinese impo
folks on here argued that following Moscow’s diesel pledge yesterday that Ukraine would be forced to stop its attacks on Russian refineries because it would somehow more explicitly tie them to US energy security. not sure Kyiv really cares or is receptive to this type of whining 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP
"global" safeguard is easy to finessa -- the safeguard can be applied on all trade in hybrids but with exclusions for all the countries that actually export cars to the EU (or generous tariff rate quotas) other than China. Conceptually allow the limits to be applied to future
Brad Setser认为，对中欧协议的概述较准确：中国混合动力汽车对欧年出口配额为40万辆，高于2025年约30万辆的出口量，但低于预计2026年的80万辆。作者称，配额加上现有纯电动汽车出口，意味着对欧出口接近100万辆；纯电动汽车适用反补贴税，但不受配额限制。
Worth remembering that to capture trade in gold you need to look at bars (metal shapes technically ...) as well as the gold line item. The US imported a ton of bars in q1 2025 ... https://t.co/mPVM1mm5r6 引用 @jasonfurman：The United States is having an extraordinary record year for exports. Exports
纽约时报称，胡塞武装今日对利雅得机场的袭击，已成为伊朗战争爆发以来沙特遭遇的最致命袭击。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普要求乌克兰领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并称“目标很多”。引用内容称，若基辅继续袭击俄炼油厂，泽连斯基将直接危及华盛顿与莫斯科之间一项涉及柴油的政治和经济协议。
UKMTO报告霍尔木兹海峡再发生一起袭击。作者称，过去11天内，霍尔木兹海峡及更广泛海湾地区已发生16起袭击。原文链接：https://t.co/9JoiAfW9jv
沙特称，周六利雅得机场遭袭，造成12人死亡、300多人受伤。这是与也门胡塞武装冲突升级以来伤亡最惨重的事件。
Rory Johnston称，霍尔木兹海峡袭击似乎正在放缓，并至少部分逆转近期原油流量的强劲恢复；与此同时，袭击频次已达到战事以来最高，仍有超过1000万桶/日原油通过海峡。引用内容称，过去11天霍尔木兹海峡及更广泛海湾地区共发生16次袭击，UKMTO报告了又一起袭击。原文将袭击放缓及原油流量恢复部分逆转列为看涨因素，将袭击频次处于战事以来最高水平且仍有大量原油通行为看跌因素。
Electricity production is the best metric for the true strength of any large-scale economy imo 引用 @a16z：Energy capacity = economic capacity, in one chart There are no low electricity, rich countries https://t.co/DTCmjh3kwv