X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
While Chinese exports of machinery, electronics and cars are set to almost double over the last 6 years ... No wonder container traffic is so unbalanced ... 3/3 https://t.co/m9a1k3xnww
European exports of machinery, electronics and cars to China weigh about half as much as they did 6 years ago ... 2/3 https://t.co/y9hI8yZvfE
美国能源部长Chris Wright称，中东（不含伊朗）原油流量已恢复至战前水平的80%–90%，波斯湾成品油流量则仅恢复至战前的25%–30%。他表示，这一原油流量水平尚不足以令美方放心，但使当前价格处于可行、合理的水平。
US economic data have increasingly been disappointing analyst expectations, with the Bloomberg US economic surprise index turning negative in the past few weeks. This is edifying concerns that consumers will soon run out of steam to keep spending as much as prices keep rising. https://t.co/Ehiz8hI2f
Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude prices. https://t.co/6tDa0MtJXk
Regarding Hormuz transit figures and directional certainty: We have up to date numbers/estimates for, say, yesterday; we just know that they are likely understated. Dark transits are typically identified with a lag, so the count revisions drift higher over time. As of right
As this chart (h/t @Mike_Weilandt) shows, periods of CNY depreciation/ weakness have consistently been associated with Chinese export outperformance. (the IMF China team ignored this from 22-24, and as a result missed the jump up in China's surplus) Time to get back to BoP https://t.co/ow8GUgbld2
A chart that says more than a thousand words The acceleration in China's export volume growth clearly followed the RMB's depreciation. Sometimes international economics is simple (even if the PBOC and a few others want to fuzz it up) https://t.co/dY7aZH8yUB
2/ Her take: Yes, rate hikes won't open the Strait of Hormuz or immediately slow the data-center buildout. But they might make other firms "think twice" about expanding in this environment, leaving scarce parts or supplies to data centers and easing pressures at the margins.
What does a Fed hawk listen for on a factory floor? At industrial-hardware maker Jergens in Cleveland, Beth Hammack heard that price has fallen to third in importance on customers' lists, behind quality and speed.
Hey, NABE Annual Meeting attendees! We’re talking all things BEA data at our booth. Swing by for the latest GDP stats and lots more. @nabe_econ https://t.co/QBhDvr0Iyo
1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%. https://t.co/owS3WGJiom
.@SecScottBessent: “@TrumpAccounts is a legacy policy for @POTUS. As children turn 18, they have a choice with their Trump Accounts. They can roll them into a more standard retirement account, let that money roll until they're 60 or 65, or they can take the money out and use it https://t.co/IrrzPIEP
And its standard fiscal advice would more or less result in a much bigger current account surplus -- i.e. it wants China to rely more on exports (think the advice used to be a 7 pp consolidation over 10ys, though that good downplayed for s-term cyclical reasons in the last A4)
The IMF's standard approach has a hard time with a country with massive savings and a public sector that has real assets as well as large debts -- by all of the IMF's standard models, China's large augmented fiscal deficit should have generated a current account deficit ...
But as policy advice and an honest assessment of the China challenge I found it a bit thin -- suck it up and move into higher value added niches doesn't cut it when China wants all those niches too, and has been quite successful in capturing many of them /end
Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, sparing the US refining capacity of a direct hit. The main refineries alongside his path were >150km away in Mobile (AL) and Pascagoula (MS). Refined fuel production (and offshore crude production) should recover quickly. 引用 @JavierBlas：The first
Catch up on all the new #BLSdata and publications that came out this week! https://t.co/aWoAAD8ikp https://t.co/iBGqPqsMQt
Brad Setser称，中国汽车年销量预计将低于2000万辆，国内销量减少500万辆左右，出口增长不足以抵消。帖文称去年秋季的激励措施推高了销量，并将今年的回落描述为较为剧烈；引用的 @business 数据显示，中国乘用车9月零售销量同比下降24%，新能源汽车销量下降12%。
🎁 The 2026 holiday season should deliver the strongest sales growth in 5 years. 📈 The @EY_Parthenon team forecasts a 5.2% rise in #holiday sales, the strongest gain since 2021, with real #retail sales growth around 2.9% & retail prices rising 2.3%. https://t.co/1eKwJyfkGk https://t.co/fLepKA
We are told US treasury's are substantially outperforming other DM sovereign markets. If true why is the Treasury considering selling less of them? Wouldn't you want to take advantage of the relative strength? I would
Electricity production is the best metric for the true strength of any large-scale economy imo 引用 @a16z：Energy capacity = economic capacity, in one chart There are no low electricity, rich countries https://t.co/DTCmjh3kwv
2Q26 #coal fast facts: https://t.co/CGfIHbhBSy 🔹 Total domestic distribution was 92.2 MMst. 🔹 Wyoming led coal-origin states with 43.2 MMst shipped to 24 states. 🔹 Texas led coal-destination states, receiving about 10.6 MMst of domestic coal. 🔹 About 70% of coal moved by https://t.co/t6NPbcPAu
Retail spending remains robust … though down from its summer peak, year/year growth in Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is up 8.6% for week ending Oct. 3 https://t.co/cP4im7U86Q
美联储理事克里斯·沃勒称，在需要时口头指引可以用于塑造市场对近期利率路径的预期，并称上周发生的事是更明确的前瞻指引。引用内容中，沃勒预计还需加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到2%的目标；加息不必在连续会议上进行，但应在可接受的时间内落实。
阿尔伯塔Hardisty的WCS原油较WTI贴水扩大至每桶25美元以上，Houston的价差扩大至每桶16美元以上。原文称，两地价差分别达到2023年11月和2023年1月以来最宽水平，并称价差扩大由质量相关因素等共同驱动。
美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至46.3，低于47.6的预期和前月的48.1。现况指数为44.7，低于50.1的预期和前月的50.9；预期指数升至47.3，高于45.7的预期和前月的46.3。https://t.co/BRcTwWzXnN
密歇根大学10月通胀预期显示，1年期为4.7%，低于4.8%预期、高于4.6%前值；5—10年期为3.5%，符合3.5%预期，高于3.4%前值。原文链接：https://t.co/9HseCJEdie
2026年9月，美国失业率基本持平在4.2%。
最新估算显示，霍尔木兹海峡七日平均石油流量于9月24日达到峰值1620万桶/日。随后伊朗航运袭击增加，流量回落约300万至400万桶/日；过去两周流量为1200万至1300万桶/日。
布伦特和迪拜原油期限结构维持较强的近月现货溢价，WTI则走弱。WTI近月现货溢价目前低于每桶1美元，这是自8月中旬以来首次。
From Egan Jones. Since 2004, the Chinese economy has outgrown the US by basically any metric you can think of. But American financial assets have clobbered Chinese ones however you measure it. https://t.co/D3KUGuhtHG
Brent crude prompt futures price up $0.03/bbl over the past month. https://t.co/PnTjIPFB18
lol, 500 kt in November is only 125 kbpd of diesel. Russia usually exports nearly ten times that volume when its refinery fleet isn't getting bombed by Ukrainian drones 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP ANNOUNCES DEAL WITH PUTIN FOR RUSSIAN DIESEL SUPPLIES President Trump says he held a “highly successful” disc
The reaction of European governments will be fascinating. #economy #markets #energy #diesel @cnbc https://t.co/L6Iw3HKzQA
The September surge in Korean/ Taiwanese exports (mostly chips) strongly suggests that the September/October US deficit will also rise further ... (last US data point is August ... and the deficit has been trending up since May ...)
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (1/2) #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: September 30, 2026. (2/2)
Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages https://t.co/uYWxlEglOv
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Found: America’s Missing Interest Income https://t.co/buuwWs0nTe For years I have argued that the official numbers on net interest payments by U.S. businesses were grossly understated. The latest revisions have vindicated my view. https://t.co/mdlxkKYNbF