WTI Houston 与 Dated Brent 价差上周创历史新高，超过 2020 年 4 月 20 日水平
WTI Houston 与 Dated Brent 的价差上周创下历史新高，今天也接近该高点。作者称，近期 WTI–Brent 价差宽于 WTI 于 2020 年 4 月 20 日收盘为负时的价差。https://t.co/GKtf6txyl4
#宏观/数据
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·grokAI 评分7070 X·grokAI 评分4545 美国9月CPI数据、通胀预期与市场风险分析
美国9月CPI数据是市场关注焦点，克利夫兰联储实时预测显示，广义CPI环比和核心CPI同比低于市场预期。文章认为，核心CPI走势更能反映通胀压力是否扩散，并指出广义CPI超预期走强、核心CPI环比偏离0.2%预期，以及油价、AI产业融资担忧等因素可能加剧市场波动。
X·grokAI 评分4848 纽约联储主席 John Williams：今年再加息一次仍合适，目前不认为2027年有必要再次加息
纽约联储主席 John Williams 表示，他仍认为今年再加息一次是合适的。对于2027年，他目前不认为央行有必要再次加息。
X·grokAI 评分3333 克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，投资者更多是根据他们认为美联储会做什么、而不是应该做什么来交易，这一观点与 Kevin Warsh 为追求更纯粹的市场信号而少谈前景的主张格格不入。
克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，投资者更多是根据他们认为美联储会做什么、而不是应该做什么来交易，这一观点与 Kevin Warsh 为追求更纯粹的市场信号而少谈前景的主张格格不入。 “曾在市场一侧 https://t.co/Bnf0fqYoGN 原文： Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than one what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin
X·宏观AI 评分88 So read Katie Martin (in the FT), read the PBOC's statement and read Mark Sobel's rebuttal
So read Katie Martin (in the FT), read the PBOC's statement and read Mark Sobel's rebuttal 6/ https://t.co/tw5Ny6xt6Z
X·宏观AI 评分2828 A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested:
A new blog, which makes two points that should be obvious but are currently deeply contested: 1) the PBOC manages the RMB heavily 2) That management matters, as the RMB's value does have a clear impact on the pace of Chinese export growth 1/ https://t.co/miYCmheBe5
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Inverse correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 persists
Inverse correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 persists https://t.co/B25HJxdFMu
X·宏观AI 评分4141 9月NFIB小企业乐观指数降至97.9，低于预期和前值
9月NFIB小企业乐观指数降至97.9，低于98.2的预期和98.7的前值，也略低于98.0的52周均值。指数10个分项中，6项下降、3项上升、1项持平。
X·宏观AI 评分3636 Labor quality was cited as single most important problem in September for third straight month…
Labor quality was cited as @NFIB single most important problem in September for third straight month, rising 3pp to 26%, followed by inflation and poor sales https://t.co/QBIo81l0c1
X·宏观AI 评分3333 Buying conditions for vehicles, houses and large household durables sank in latest Consumer…
Buying conditions for vehicles, houses and large household durables sank in latest @UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey, largely due to higher prices and borrowing costs https://t.co/whULI1VjQr
X·宏观AI 评分3939 Since the start of the current bull market on Oct. 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has seen 124 new all-time…
Since the start of the current bull market on Oct. 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has seen 124 new all-time closing highs (note lone record high in 2022 occurred on Jan. 3, prior to the start of the bull market) https://t.co/wBkFucEDIA
X·宏观AI 评分5555 IMF预测发达经济体今年净借款将达GDP的5.2%，中国和美国2026年赤字将达或超过8%
IMF预测，发达经济体今年净借款将达GDP的5.2%，为2021年以来最高。IMF预测中国和美国2026年赤字将达到或超过GDP的8%。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 CHART OF THE DAY: Economic pain alone may force Tehran -- or may not -- into softening its red…
CHART OF THE DAY: Economic pain alone may force Tehran -- or may not -- into softening its red lines. I don't know. What we know is the pain is very real. According to new IMF estimates, Iran will suffer in 2026 the biggest GDP contraction in nearly 40 years, down 7.6% y-on-y. https://t.co/V193k2Mv8
X·宏观AI 评分7272 沙特向OPEC报告9月原油产量升至约840万桶/日
沙特向OPEC报告，9月原油产量升至约840万桶/日，为战争开始以来最高水平。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 Hiring slowed marginally for the first time in eight weeks with private payrolls adding an average…
Hiring slowed marginally for the first time in eight weeks with private payrolls adding an average of 24,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sep. 26 per @adpresearch https://t.co/XkVIvgPTFI
X·宏观AI 评分4646 IMF最新《世界经济展望》预计全球经济2026年增长3.1%，2027年增长3.4%
IMF最新《世界经济展望》预计全球经济2026年增长3.1%，高于7月预计的3.0%；2027年预计增长3.4%，与7月预测持平。
X·宏观AI 评分5656 美国9月成屋销售环比增长1.5%，中位房价同比上涨1.3%至417,500美元
美国9月成屋销售环比增长1.5%，高于预期的下降0.8%；前值由下降3.2%下修至下降2.0%。9月成屋中位房价同比上涨1.3%至417,500美元。https://t.co/3xtGsVCWNL
X·宏观AI 评分1818 And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that…
And the PBOC is trying to argue that the CNY is market determined when it is quite clear that that fix has been the main driver of the CNY in recent years As Mark Sobel notes, this does nothing to help the PBOC's credilibillty https://t.co/fqCD3FBan0
X·宏观AI 评分2525 Quits rate 3.5 percent in accommodation and food services, August 2026 #BLSdata
Quits rate 3.5 percent in accommodation and food services, August 2026 https://t.co/XEUB0FZns5 #BLSdata https://t.co/n7GKMYAsIH
X·宏观AI 评分1212 #FedFAQ: How is the Federal Reserve System structured?
#FedFAQ: How is the Federal Reserve System structured? Learn more: https://t.co/8x8QevFCSM https://t.co/zDhvOtmtKY
X·宏观AI 评分2525 Williams: "There are scenarios where the economy evolves in a way that you would need to have a…
Williams: "There are scenarios where the economy evolves in a way that you would need to have a higher path of interest rates to best achieve best achieve our goals. There’s also, I would say, equally there are future paths of the economy that would say that you don’t need to do
X·宏观AI 评分5151 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯称今年或再加息一次，2027年视情况而定
纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在接受彭博采访时表示，他仍预计今年可能再加息一次；对于2027年的安排，他说还要视情况判断。https://t.co/Iuf2o0NVbE
X·宏观AI 评分4444 分析师预计9月CPI能源价格大幅上涨，核心价格涨幅较温和
分析师预计，9月CPI中的能源价格将大幅上涨，推高整体CPI；核心价格则预计涨幅较温和。
X·宏观AI 评分5555 纽约港柴油裂解价差单日上涨 12 美元/桶，回到 100 美元/桶上方
纽约港柴油相对布伦特原油的柴油裂解价差今天单日上涨 12 美元/桶，回到 100 美元/桶上方。作者称，这一增量约相当于通常柴油裂解价差的 50%，并将当前油市形容为波动异常。https://t.co/sQDWdAchfB
X·宏观AI 评分4242 我们是否开始看到，极端运费正在冲击炼厂开工？
布伦特原油近月价差和DFL今日下跌，显示其他条件不变时原油市场趋于宽松；与此同时，柴油价格再度大幅上涨。纽约港柴油裂解价差（相对于布伦特）单日上涨12美元/桶，升至100美元/桶以上，约相当于正常柴油裂解价差的50%。
X·宏观AI 评分4444 IMF基本维持全球经济增长预测，预计美国GDP 2026年增长约2.3%
IMF在中东战争持续8个多月的背景下基本维持全球经济增长预测，并称全球经济再次显示出韧性。美国GDP预计2026年增长约2.3%，与2025年相同。
X·宏观AI 评分2727 Good morning.
Good morning. Here's the usual summary table from the just-released World Economic Outlook from the IMF. More to follow. #economy #markets @IMFNews https://t.co/lptAHOJon5
X·宏观AI 评分3939 这两天美股一个迹象就是部分资金开始流切往价值股、医疗保健、金融、公用事业板块，一方面是防守另一方面也有上周五这里
这两天美股一个迹象就是部分资金开始流切往价值股、医疗保健、金融、公用事业板块，一方面是防守另一方面也有上周五这里https://t.co/HyuQZKyn26聊“关注美债收益率筑顶的可能性”，收益率筑顶回落，之前一个多月被压制的这些板块都能往上冒头。昨晚纳指、标普跌，道指小涨也是这个逻辑。正好跟美银的报 https://t.co/Zmj26DGTpA 引用 @qinbafrank：现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。他给的建议是：
X·宏观AI 评分1818 From the WSJ article, "China’s Weakening Economy Is Creating a Lost Generation."
From the WSJ article, "China’s Weakening Economy Is Creating a Lost Generation." #economy #markets @WSJ #china https://t.co/PGOScAmGbr
X·宏观AI 评分1818 There may be some complexities around debt specifically taken on to build new manufacturing…
There may be some complexities around debt specifically taken on to build new manufacturing capacity -- but in general a credit expansion that pushes investment up (offsetting the property downturn) should support domestic demand and LOWER the current account surplus 3/3
X·宏观AI 评分4646 快讯：中国人民币兑美元汇率触及四年多来高位
中国人民币兑美元汇率刚触及四年多来高位。多数法定货币兑美元走弱之际，人民币走势相反。
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Rolling correlation between bond yields and stock prices
Rolling correlation between bond yields and stock prices https://t.co/BlTWMjTrPn
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Nela speaks about the risk of income erosion & refers to « 43% workers continuously employed at the…
Nela speaks about the risk of income erosion & refers to « 43% workers continuously employed at the same firm over the four years spanning 2021–2024 experienced a real wage decline, with a mean loss of roughly 9% among those who fell behind » https://t.co/3TZGtoBMDb
X·宏观AI 评分6060 全球在途原油接近历史高位，本轮不含伊朗原油
全球在途原油已升至接近历史高位，略低于7月签署谅解备忘录后创下的峰值。按Vortexa数据，本轮在途原油不含伊朗原油。https://t.co/6Qw6m08N1m
X·宏观AI 评分1515 The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded on Monday to Robert E. Hall and Michael…
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded on Monday to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization.” https://t.co/tDkez5xSH6
X·宏观AI 评分3939 再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住；
再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
X·宏观AI 评分1616 Summer 2007 when the math was pretty clear that the credit losses were going to be in the trillions.
Summer 2007 when the math was pretty clear that the credit losses were going to be in the trillions. https://t.co/KzNYHtBczw https://t.co/X1BVMQ1hdU https://t.co/QqGudCeERV 引用 @riqsz5：For those who were adults during the 2008 financial crisis, what was your holy crap, the economy is actually crash
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Hammack adds that Fed should act and markets react — encouraging to see rise in yields contributing…
Hammack adds that Fed should act and markets react — encouraging to see rise in yields contributing to tighter policy stance, but stresses this is a function of Fed actions and signaling.
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Good morning.
Good morning. Where do G-7 sovereign yields stand entering the new week? Here’s the 10-year government debt lineup from the WSJ. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/JSRcursLeG
X·宏观AI 评分7070 Brad Setser称中国汽车出口今年加速增长，推动欧盟改变贸易范式
Brad Setser称，中国汽车出口今年在高基数上加速增长，是欧盟改变贸易范式的重要原因。引用的路透数据称，9月乘用车销量同比下降28.1%至163万辆，汽车出口同比增长73.2%至92.3万辆；8月对应变化分别为下降23.7%和增长77.5%。