布伦特和迪拜原油近月现货溢价仍强，WTI走弱
布伦特和迪拜原油期限结构维持较强的近月现货溢价，WTI则走弱。WTI近月现货溢价目前低于每桶1美元，这是自8月中旬以来首次。
#全球能源安全/油气煤炭
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
X·宏观AI 评分4343 X·宏观AI 评分00 I CANNOT OVERSTATE HOW MUCH OF A NOTHING BURGER THIS IS
I CANNOT OVERSTATE HOW MUCH OF A NOTHING BURGER THIS IS https://t.co/XaUOkyZqzy
X·宏观AI 评分22 I used a 7.46 factor to convert metric tons into barrels (as recommended by BP)
I used a 7.46 factor to convert metric tons into barrels (as recommended by BP)
X·宏观AI 评分3939 BREAKING: US President Trump says he has agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia would export “to…
BREAKING: US President Trump says he has agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia would export “to the American and Global Marketplace” diesel. The quantities are, however quite small to make a meaningful impact. Trump says Russia will export immediately ~300,000 tonnes (~2.2 https://t.co/9anQ66GsXq
X·宏观AI 评分4747 美国取消对俄罗斯原产柴油的制裁，莫斯科承诺11月供应50万吨柴油
美国取消对俄罗斯原产柴油的制裁后，莫斯科承诺11月提供50万吨柴油。Rory Johnston称，这相当于每日12.5万桶；俄罗斯炼油厂未遭乌克兰无人机袭击时，柴油出口量通常接近这一水平的十倍。
X·宏观AI 评分3737 Let’s than a month since Congress voted for (and President Trump signed into law) the “Lindsey O.…
Let’s than a month since Congress voted for (and President Trump signed into law) the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026” that gives the White House huge powers to limit the Kremlin’s sales of energy, the first move is to lift sanctions on Russian diesel.
X·宏观AI 评分2626 The Trump-Putin deal on diesel puts Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in a difficult spot: if…
The Trump-Putin deal on diesel puts Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in a difficult spot: if Kyiv continues blowing up Russian refineries, Zelenskyy would be directly jeopardising a political and economic deal between Washington and Moscow.
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads…
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/fR212p97cV
X·宏观AI 评分5252 Rory Johnston《石油背景周报》：伊朗航运遇袭加剧，原油上涨
Rory Johnston称，原油上涨，战事中伊朗航运遇袭的强度达到最急剧的节奏，使此前经霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量恢复出现逆转。推文还称，白宫在柴油问题上愈发急切，并表示完整报告见回复：https://t.co/BjdajgN5Jb
X·宏观AI 评分55 thinking of writing a piece simply titled “Tanker Rates Ruined Crude Prices”
thinking of writing a piece simply titled “Tanker Rates Ruined Crude Prices”
X·宏观AI 评分44 when you do a TV hit and the anchor closes off with something along the lines of “the perfect…
when you do a TV hit and the anchor closes off with something along the lines of “the perfect person to provide us that necessary Commodity Context” https://t.co/bshPZyW8Uo
X·宏观AI 评分5656 中国拟在国庆假期短暂停运后恢复成品油出口
中国拟在国庆假期短暂停运后恢复成品油出口。原文称，此举将有助于缓解全球柴油、汽油和航空燃油市场偏紧，并附有链接 https://t.co/uC1teY4fqw
X·宏观AI 评分3838 近期的美股就是在被不断调教：
近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解； 引用 @qinbafrank：现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https:/
X·财经博主AI 评分1919 Reminder, we can't tap this well forever. "A report for Idaho National Laboratory from February…
Reminder, we can't tap this well forever. "A report for Idaho National Laboratory from February puts what's left through conventional methods at roughly 4-5GW. Novel approaches could stretch that. Alva Energy says its second-turbine design could add 10GW across the fleet."
X·宏观AI 评分3535 gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100
gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100 https://t.co/ozSeo6O0Qk
X·科技公司AI 评分1717 Starlink provides Internet connectivity to the least-served, enabling self-education and prosperity…
Starlink provides Internet connectivity to the least-served, enabling self-education and prosperity by giving people access to sell their products worldwide! 引用 @XFreeze：Many people still misunderstand what Starlink is actually for Starlink isn’t a replacement.....It’s a lifeline “Starlink will g
X·宏观AI 评分3535 We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is…
We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is… … cutting cuts to fresh recent seasonal lows. https://t.co/E7vpk6vNJn 引用 @VKMacro：China refinery run rates are trending lower again for SOE. Where are we on imports? https://t.co/fUREB6DGS8
X·宏观AI 评分1919 PODCAST: Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the oil market, Iran, President…
PODCAST: Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the oil market, Iran, President Trump, and China. Spotify 🔉: https://t.co/PiC6w5OV5n Apple Podcast 🔉: https://t.co/Mao4AlL8XE Youtube 📺: https://t.co/CsZTFBsrp9 Substack 📄: https://t.co/AOQ3kFzqt3
X·宏观AI 评分3939 Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy…
Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, on the Oil Ground Up podcast here: https://t.co/6Vpk6hKs0U 引用 @HormuzReport：BREAKING: A senior Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran huge
X·宏观AI 评分3131 Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury is targeting the remnants of Iran’s shadow…
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury is targeting the remnants of Iran’s shadow fleet: the aging network of tankers the regime relies on to move billions of dollars’ worth of petroleum and petroleum products to foreign markets. Today’s action effectively
X·宏观AI 评分7070 波斯湾至远东航线油运日运费升至约140万美元
波斯湾至远东基准航线的油运日运费升至约140万美元，一年前不足5万美元。运费上涨也扩散至中东冲突以外的多条航线，尤其是美国墨西哥湾沿岸和西非相关航线。
X·财经博主AI 评分6363 贸易数据显示变压器价格升至每kVA 13美元
贸易数据显示，变压器价格从2014-22年的每kVA 7美元升至2024年的10美元、2025年的12美元和2026年的13美元。部分来源对欧洲新建50-100MVA机组报价为每kVA 30-35美元。https://t.co/yUD84a8NeW
X·宏观AI 评分5656 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡“非法”航线
据半官方的法尔斯通讯社，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称将“很快”封锁霍尔木兹海峡的“非法”航线。作者称，这实际上是革命卫队首次公开承认该水道已不再关闭。
X·宏观AI 评分3131 这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT…
这个认同，虽然现在通过接驳转运美军护航通过霍尔木兹海峡恢复了大半，油价没能回落一方面是运输成本太贵、另一方面伊朗确实还有继续袭击油轮打断航线的能力（溢价来源）。看报道昨晚印度还确认一艘巴拿马籍油轮MT On 引用 @ShanghaoJin：@qinbafrank 我觉得还有一个问题是：大家都知道伊朗没有真心想封锁，他们实际控制能力不完全反应比现在通航数 也就是在中期之前，他可能随时又要来一下？ 所以给了油价一个溢价
X·宏观AI 评分4444 霍尔木兹海峡油轮遭伊朗袭击，波斯湾装载活动仍强劲
自 10 月初以来，尽管伊朗袭击了穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，波斯湾内装载活动仍然强劲，白天驶入的空载油轮也在增加。油流可能变得更不均匀，日间波动幅度加大。
X·宏观AI 评分6262 国际能源署成员国称必要时准备追加释放战略储备石油，并优先保障柴油
国际能源署负责人周三表示，成员国必要时准备从战略储备追加释放石油，并将优先考虑柴油，理由是柴油供应偏紧。布伦特原油回落至每桶100美元下方。
X·宏观AI 评分3838 The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European…
The negotiations now hinge on whether China will accept (as in not retaliate against) European safeguards limiting China's auto exports (presumably b/c of a significant tariff rate quota that allows some ongoing exports) -- and then the discussion will turn to other sectors 2/2
X·宏观AI 评分5252 布伦特原油短暂跌破100美元后回升，IEA称必要时可追加释放战略储备
布伦特原油一度跌破100美元，随后回升至100美元上方。原文引用IEA负责人周三的表态称，成员国已准备好在必要时从战略储备中追加释放原油，并将优先保障供应偏紧的柴油。
X·宏观AI 评分5454 UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边共13起船只遇袭
UKMTO报告海湾再发生一起袭击，过去一周海湾及霍尔木兹海峡周边的船只遇袭总数达到13起。https://t.co/jpmGIUsS1X
X·宏观AI 评分2323 I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the…
I think most people in Europe (and most informed observers in DC) expected China to turn down the proposal for voluntary export restraints -- hence the safeguards cases that are ready as a fallback https://t.co/RBTB4OS8vp 2/2 https://t.co/cArLkugzgp
X·宏观AI 评分5050 万斯称伊朗难以阻止石油经霍尔木兹海峡出口
美国副总统万斯在接受路透社采访时称，尽管伊朗不时袭击霍尔木兹海峡的商船，但伊朗基本上无法阻止石油通过该水道出口。
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Vitol CEO said the oil market has gone through three distinctive phases, at this overlapping each…
Vitol CEO said the oil market has gone through three distinctive phases, at this overlapping each other: 1) a crude crisis; 2) followed by a refined product crisis; and now 3) a shipping crisis. On the later, my @Opinion column from September 🚢⤵️https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
X·宏观AI 评分2222 Excellent roundtable conversation alongside on China’s Hormuz response (Beijing Swing!) and what it…
Excellent roundtable conversation alongside @Erica_Downs_ on China’s Hormuz response (Beijing Swing!) and what it has revealed to us about China’s vastly underappreciated [discretionary] oil market influence. Huge thanks to @reziemba for the invitation and to @CNASdc for hosting
X·宏观AI 评分7171 Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并指向危机交割定价
Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并将当前定价描述为危机交割定价。引用内容给出的 6/10/2026 Dated Brent 评估价为 $125.53/bbl，实物价差为 $19.105/bbl；作者表示，高昂的运输成本是部分原因，但这种价差也不会出现在疲弱或正常市场。
X·宏观AI 评分00 Will be framed for my wall of analytical humility.
Will be framed for my wall of analytical humility. https://t.co/lf1QhIyovR
X·宏观AI 评分2727 Gosh, $200/bbl oil?
Gosh, $200/bbl oil? Who would ever put such an outrageous number out there... 😅 引用 @OilHeadlineNews：Vitol chief warns of tanker shortage and risk of $200-a-barrel oil Head of world’s largest independent oil trader says shipping squeeze is creating new bottleneck despite increased Gulf flows @sta
X·宏观AI 评分1818 IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON?
IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON? In the newsletter (inspired by our conversation with @CarolinPflueger) I wrote about the huge spread between US and Chinese sovereign borrowing costs, and what it might imply about a shifting balance of geopolitical power. https://t.co/koH2ow8LCn
X·宏观AI 评分2323 Early in the war I wondered why we didn't see more ships risking the journey across Hormuz for big…
Early in the war I wondered why we didn't see more ships risking the journey across Hormuz for big profits despite obvious danger Easily enough spread—early in the war Gulf oil prices were functionally negative—to pay for sky-high insurance & crew hazard pay Well, we got there: https://t.co/f8IwKE
X·宏观AI 评分11 They’re absolutely going to kick me out of this city
They’re absolutely going to kick me out of this city https://t.co/bOyn9rUWOl
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Peter Harrell on the Franco-German proposals to strengthen Europe's response to the second China…
Peter Harrell on the Franco-German proposals to strengthen Europe's response to the second China shock 引用 @petereharrell：Lets unpack the new Franco-German paper proposing fundamental changes to how the EU manages trade policy and which, if implemented, would mark the most significant change to EU-C