X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
So a question. If there are two extremely similar assets that are similar but not literally fungible. Similar in that they respond to macroeconomic drivers identically and are idiosyncratically highly similar. And let's assume they have fixed supply. Is there any reason that
As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising. The yield curve is still flat, nothing is broken. It’s almost expected. But now, the more people talk about it, the more I might become neutral on bonds. https://t.co/uOrymG3qRA
We are coming off a curious week of economic and financial dualism ... and are now looking at a packed one featuring US inflation data, lots of other global releases, and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. For details, please use one of the following links to read my Weekly Look https://t.co/iuRLp9
Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点： 引用 @EricBalchunas：The Stock Market Is Currently Out of Breadth But It's No Reason to Worry.. new from me on the latest worry being hurled at investors from the columnist class and what they aren't telling you: 1) over past 100 ye
4/5 Concentration is only part of the story. Over the past year, the rolling 6-month correlation (green) has turned slightly negative. Another sign that the headline index conceals two different market experiences. https://t.co/HDiCAqPo3a
AAII 情绪调查显示，个人投资者股票敞口在 9 月升至 71.8%，为 2017 年以来最高。该比例高于 61.5% 的历史均值。
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I riff on markets and I sit down with the always-insightful @NelaRichardson from ADP to talk all things jobs-related https://t.co/cE254ULT3x
Equity outflows were almost the entire answer in the first half of the year (foreigners selling Korean stocks because of concentration limits/ Koreans buying foreign stocks) but not in July and August 2/ https://t.co/V1iKtMdXzi
昨天视频下面留言：“SP500的EPS最大的贡献者就是NVDA和MU，占了1/3，所以SP500的估值并不能简单说是便宜” 下面是标普等权，15.9倍，也低于今年3月份，比上年的3月，15倍，要高。高了大概6%。 估值在低位的结论不变，我就是一个在数据上非常执着的杠精 https://t.co/jIByYRLd9o
Funny thing about $SPY is it's down 60bp and realizing 10 vol annualized. $TLT fell 7% in 5 weeks. Just imagine what that would smell like for SPY
My latest #MarketSnapshot video has published … not looking my best as I have been under the weather … but plugged away on the topic of weak market breadth: https://t.co/CrEF494OFq
For week ended 10/2/26, bulk of ETF categories had positive inflows, led by government bonds and U.S. large caps … cyclical sectors had largest outflows @DataArbor https://t.co/HwOrY0Cifx
为何说市场收益率不再继续向上飙升，估值压力就能缓解？最近几天美股走势也验证了上周这里https://t.co/W1rOfllyrR还有更早这里https://t.co/Qq6a9VrRwv聊到的：“现在的市场并不需要长债收益大跌，只需要稳定小幅回落，业绩没问题的就能起来。能稳住，市场也会缓缓。” 再详细聊聊这个逻辑： https://t.co/3EvTPwgKp1 引用 @qinbafrank：花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况
花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？ 这是基本面真的比想象中强，还是市场已经对风险麻木？ https://t.co/F09KKLDSHg 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又要喊降BETA了🤣🤣🤣一年一个轮回
标普500指数今日升至历史新高，创下自8月13日以来首次纪录收盘，也是今年第28次纪录收盘。
Brad Setser称，法院裁定IEEPA关税违法后，特朗普政府选择基本重建10%的关税，并豁免USMC贸易、药品和电子产品。引用者对此提出异议，称此前特朗普政府已对所有商品加征20%的IEEPA芬太尼关税及“解放日”关税，并称美国最高法院推翻了这些关税。
For those who think asset values can't be allowed to drop because the deficit needs cap gains or else it will blow up. If cap gains went to zero (which of course is nonsense ) what would happen to the deficit?
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset https://t.co/NchvzzAr0W In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less true for Europe, and especially for France. https://t.co/z1NrI86j10
【A股盘前】 2026年10月3日 ======================================== 数据窗口：9月28日~9月30日（近3个交易日） 一、今日结论 环境分：38分，只观察，不给买点。
周五（10月2日），美股三大指数全线上涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.49%，标普500指数涨0.73%，纳指涨1.19%。 金融股多数收涨，摩根士丹利、花旗集团涨超1%，高盛集团涨0.69%，伯克希尔哈撒韦涨0.37%，富国银行涨0.25%，美国银行涨0.09%，摩根大通跌0.25%。
$### 收盘于历史新高。 祝福我的订阅者。订阅我，我就是财富密码，我们下周可能动员上杠杆： https://t.co/0hbYvJoY65
10月9日美股开盘前，Moderna（MRNA）将加入纳斯达克100指数，替代华纳兄弟探索（WBD）。
美日韩股市，外资基本30%上下 中国呢？3% 你敢信吗？是被消灭了还是压根没敢来？
A股ETF中线动量去重后前10 房地产ETF银华 sz159768 涨15.49%。纳指科技ETF景顺 sz159509 涨13.06%。港股通创新药ETF嘉实 sh520970 涨8.26%。船舶ETF富国 sh560710 涨3.72%。现金流ETF银华 sz159225 涨1.99%。银行ETF华安 sh516210 涨0.97%。药ETF华宝 sh562050 涨0.22%。中证2000增强ETF银华 sz159555
ARK 上一交易日买入 4.1 交易日 2026-10-02，买入 8 笔合计 45.2M 美元，卖出 2 笔合计 1.1M 美元（来源 ARK 每日持仓 10-02）。 4.2 逐笔明细： $CBRS ARKK 买入 13.7M 占ETF 0.17%； $BWXT ARKK 买入 9.8M 占ETF 0.12%； $CBRS ARKW 买入 6.3M 占ETF 0.30%； $NTLA ARKK 买入 5.1M 占ETF 0.06%；