X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
消费者就是跟不上 与今年早些时候消费者为跟上油价上涨而激增支出不同，今秋价格二次上涨后，支出没有跟上。h/t @ericwallerstein https://t.co/2wSTqN4eZS https://t.co/KMLGGQhRt0 原文： The Consumer Just Can’t Keep Up Unlike earlier in the year when consumers surged spending to keep up with rising gas prices, spending has not kept up with the second surge
俄罗斯地方当局称，大规模无人机袭击击中梁赞炼油厂并引发火灾，该炼油厂位于莫斯科以南约200km。原文称，这是美国总统特朗普声称基辅与莫斯科已就能源达成休战以来，首起得到确认的俄罗斯炼油厂遇袭事件。
In an interview with the FT, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country will restart strikes on Russia’s oil refineries. “The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” Zelenskyy said. https://t.co/y95QRcuc5T
I miss the days before the paid service🙃 https://t.co/V4yJAmVJmD 引用 @crampell：Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate
COLUMN: BP should resist calls to resume share buybacks immediately -- and instead use today's oil and gas windfall to fix its debt problem once and for all. @Opinion https://t.co/xNpsK8NHWH
Rory Johnston正在制作图表，整理UKMTO确认的霍尔木兹、波斯湾和阿曼湾航运袭击事件，并叠加估算的霍尔木兹石油流量。原文还提到“UNGO”的巧合，并附有链接：https://t.co/13kaE0qDMb
新加坡政府确认，集装箱船 GFS PRIDE 在霍尔木兹海峡附近遭伊朗袭击后沉没。船上全体船员安全，该船悬挂新加坡国旗。
9月广义CPI同比高于预期，核心CPI同比和环比均高于预期。作者提及Truflation实时通胀数据趋势较五六月份走高，并列出油轮遇袭、胡塞与沙特交火及油价波动作为此前讨论的背景。
Rory Johnston发布面向订阅用户的10月OPEC+数据简报，更新了中东隐含停产跟踪，当前估算停产规模为400万至600万桶/日，背景是最新霍尔木兹海峡运输回落。推文称，伊朗战争以来累计供应损失超过23亿桶。原文链接：https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2110383718817026345
MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total Middle Eastern crude oil flows (ex-Iran) remain resilient. Flows are becoming, however, lumpier (days of multiple tanker crossings followed by days of very few tankers). Overall, https://t.co/rOLBTPsrzU
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I was joined by the one and only @JavierBlas to talk about why crude never hit $200, how commodity traders managed to make it work, the Beijing Swing, record tanker rates, and where it's all heading https://t.co/TjfhXxuDqC
PHOTOS OF THE DAY: The aftermath of the sinking of a container ship (the GFS PRIDE) in the Strait of Hormuz. Note the field of floating containers (red) and two oil tankers exiting the waterway in full daylight (green) plus close-ups. 🛰️📷 @CopernicusEU Sentinel 2 https://t.co/12FIbf0e5q
Working on some shipping attack charts to put the recent escalation in Context. Here we have UKMTO-confirmed shipping attacks in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. Overlaying the estimated Hormuz oil flow adds some helpful perspective. (also that UNGA coincidence) https://t.co/F1whp1
伊朗半官方媒体报道，一架无人机在波斯湾与一艘伊朗渔船“相撞”。你敢赌多少：a）这架无人机并不只是简单地“相撞”；b）那艘渔船也不只是在捕鱼。 （伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡（SoH）尝试新花招，美国海军也会如此） 原文： Iranian semi-official media reports that a drone "collided" with an Iranian fishing vessel in the Persian Gulf. How much you bet that the drone a) didn't simply "collide;" b) the fishing vesse
IEA估算显示，9月全球石油日产量在中东供应大幅增加后回升至约1.02亿桶，重新超过每日1亿桶。全球供应仍略低于约1.035亿桶的需求。
WTI Houston 与 Dated Brent 的价差上周创下历史新高，今天也接近该高点。作者称，近期 WTI–Brent 价差宽于 WTI 于 2020 年 4 月 20 日收盘为负时的价差。https://t.co/GKtf6txyl4
美国9月CPI数据是市场关注焦点，克利夫兰联储实时预测显示，广义CPI环比和核心CPI同比低于市场预期。文章认为，核心CPI走势更能反映通胀压力是否扩散，并指出广义CPI超预期走强、核心CPI环比偏离0.2%预期，以及油价、AI产业融资担忧等因素可能加剧市场波动。
沙特向OPEC报告，9月原油产量升至约840万桶/日，为战争开始以来最高水平。
CFTC staff analyzing oil trades for insider trading around the U.S.-Iran war were told to retract their referral to the agency's enforcement division | h/t @CGorrivan https://t.co/YdN6lVAXC7
Interesting and more bearish divergence between flat prompt Brent crude futures price (white) and the prompt timespread (blue) today. Something to keep an eye on. https://t.co/yZA9uIYfEU
纽约港柴油相对布伦特原油的柴油裂解价差今天单日上涨 12 美元/桶，回到 100 美元/桶上方。作者称，这一增量约相当于通常柴油裂解价差的 50%，并将当前油市形容为波动异常。https://t.co/sQDWdAchfB
布伦特原油近月价差和DFL今日下跌，显示其他条件不变时原油市场趋于宽松；与此同时，柴油价格再度大幅上涨。纽约港柴油裂解价差（相对于布伦特）单日上涨12美元/桶，升至100美元/桶以上，约相当于正常柴油裂解价差的50%。
Rory Johnston称，UKMTO当天报告霍尔木兹海峡发生另外两起航运袭击，使其自9月30日以来在霍尔木兹及紧邻区域确认的袭击总数达到24起。他表示，向UKMTO报告是自愿的，通常上报较慢，且无法确认时不会报告；在误报较多的情况下，确认清单记录了袭击数量。 https://t.co/8OCgmnL3Bj
沙特确认，沙特阿美位于达兰的一栋行政大楼遭到袭击并起火。达兰是沙特阿美总部所在地，园区内有多栋建筑和封闭式住宅社区，但没有石油生产设施。
No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rhetoric in recent days intended to create more product supply, it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter. https://t.co/KLT3pxeovj
Ukraine has “influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not. … Electricity is what matters to us. That’s clear. If we can be guaranteed protection for our power system, then we will not strike Russia’s diesel infrastructure in 引用 @ZelenskyyUa：I don
全球在途原油已升至接近历史高位，略低于7月签署谅解备忘录后创下的峰值。按Vortexa数据，本轮在途原油不含伊朗原油。https://t.co/6Qw6m08N1m
再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
沙特宣布计划扩建绕过霍尔木兹海峡的关键东西向输油管道。该管道名义输送能力为 700 万桶/日，目前可能约为 600 万桶/日；此前一次袭击摧毁了一座泵站。
UKMTO报告当天又有四起霍尔木兹海峡袭击事件被延迟报告。原文附有链接：https://t.co/bo7pnZtMVx
"The word fear doesn't exist in the Saudi dictionary" -- Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the opening of the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh today.
While Chinese exports of machinery, electronics and cars are set to almost double over the last 6 years ... No wonder container traffic is so unbalanced ... 3/3 https://t.co/m9a1k3xnww
欧盟从中国进口有机化学品的重量大幅上升，甚至高于俄罗斯入侵后的时期。按重量看，欧洲目前从中国进口的机械、电子产品和汽车，超过从世界其他地区进口的总和。
COLUMN: “Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” The ancient stock market maxim resonates in today’s Middle East. While the US and Iran fight, Big Oil is heading into neighboring Iraq. @Opinion https://t.co/6rcxadx1Em
美国能源部长Chris Wright称，中东（不含伊朗）原油流量已恢复至战前水平的80%–90%，波斯湾成品油流量则仅恢复至战前的25%–30%。他表示，这一原油流量水平尚不足以令美方放心，但使当前价格处于可行、合理的水平。
Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude prices. https://t.co/6tDa0MtJXk
Regarding Hormuz transit figures and directional certainty: We have up to date numbers/estimates for, say, yesterday; we just know that they are likely understated. Dark transits are typically identified with a lag, so the count revisions drift higher over time. As of right
2/ Her take: Yes, rate hikes won't open the Strait of Hormuz or immediately slow the data-center buildout. But they might make other firms "think twice" about expanding in this environment, leaving scarce parts or supplies to data centers and easing pressures at the margins.
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在10月15日会议前，敦促成员国考虑从战略石油储备中进一步释放柴油。原文未说明拟释放的数量或具体执行安排。
A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE 引用 @DeItaone：ZELENSKIY SAYS TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS NEWS FOR HIM -AXIOS ZELENSKIY SAYS IF RUSSIANS AG