X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Wheels were spinning in Berlin, Brussels and Paris over the summer. Beijing didn't do itself any favors by rather flippantly dismissing European concerns even as China's surplus kept on rising 3/3 https://t.co/O340ESNPA9
If implemented through the EU’s law-making apparatus, it [the Franco-German letter] would mark a dramatic shift in how the bloc intends to confront China. The main novelty is a “second-strike capability” 2/3 https://t.co/HjAMNOCB8O
"Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz want to grant Brussels powers to hit back quickly at countries that retaliate when the EU imposes trade measures over allegedly unfair competition ... “It is a political signal to show Beijing that Europe, and Germany, mean business,” says a
Dr Setser citing Autor et al. on the "China shock": "People in those communities experienced bad job market outcomes, bad economic outcomes for many years. So that’s kind of the background. It changed a little bit how many economists think about the cost of trade." Dr Setser https://t.co/pQVmhnlJL
* a much bigger tariff differential was put forward in the campaign, and the 20% across the board (no exclusions, including for electronics) tariff of Trump 2's first year did have an impact (final assembly for computers left China nearly completely). the fentanyl tariff is no
The Trump 1 tariffs did have some positive effects -- notably insulating the US auto sector from the second China shock. I have not seen any real evidence that the 2.5% tariff differential between China and Europe is doing much at all* 2/2
Lighthizer (Trump 1) introduced a 25% tariff on about 1/2 of US imports in 2017. Those sectors are now 1/4 to 1/3 of current imports from China. Trump 2 now has tariffs on trade with China to 12.5% (after going much higher), and either 12.5% or 10% on most other trade partners 引用 @BaldingsWorld：
The change to Europe's trade in key sectors occurred quite quickly. The overall balance in say autos was pretty stable going into 2024. It has now fallen in 1/2 if batteries (in HS 85) and added to the total https://t.co/7Pi3KgMUSv 引用 @SanderTordoir：A change of tune in the business community.
Across America, families and workers claimed $82 billion in direct tax relief. Ninety-seven percent of filers who would have otherwise owed taxes received a tax cut —and 96% of those who received one earned less than $200,000. More money in workers’ pockets. More opportunity for
If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and
Trump says “Canada does all their business with us, we do very little business with them.” Sure looks like a lot of red to me, and I think some of those states might be important in an upcoming election 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/1rChTt99ch 引用 @atrupar：Trump: "Canada behaves very badly with the United S
2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg
not sure the regulatory burden in china is smaller than in the US/EU right now. different perhaps but not smaller --
Shanu Mathew称，UBS预计全球年度机架容量部署将从2026E的26.5 GW升至2030E的104.5 GW，其中50.5 GW将用于Nvidia。作者以ERCOT当前约90GW的峰值负荷作对照，称部署全部容量相当于满足ERCOT目前的峰值负荷；原文列出$NVDA、$GOOGL、$AMD、$MSFT、$META、$ORCL和$AMZN。
USAID engaged in election interference and regime change around the world, causing massive strife 引用 @MikeBenzCyber：Here’s a shocking statistic you may not know. USAID more than doubled its spending on Brazil as soon Bolsonaro won their 2018 election. This was not because Brazil suddenly needed twi
当被问到：你后悔说过“我现在就是庄家”吗？ 贝森特说：“不后悔，因为你看，庄家也不是每一把都赢，庄家玩的是概率长期下来你会赢。我无法控制债券市场。我能做的是让人们慢下来思考，而非控制市场。” 对美债收益率上升，贝森特认为与全球趋势一致，并非美国特有现象：“如果出现 https://t.co/XP3h9Nkluv 引用 @qinbafrank：“我现在是庄家，所以当我们干预日元的时候，我对日本人、日本央行、日本决策层要做什么了如指掌，你们要想跟我对赌就尽管来。这是贝森特昨晚在访谈中直接说的，当一位曾经参与成功狙击过英镑和泰铢、在外汇市场有着丰富经验的基金经理成为了美国财政部长，他确实有着极强
作者提到，伊朗周日再次强调，霍尔木兹海峡在七项条件得到满足前不会重新开放。作者转述报道称，周六至周日又有三艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡被袭击，并提示关注当天油价走势。https://t.co/uuxhQGAcyY
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest ep of Oil Ground Up I was joined by Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopol risk at @Kpler, to talk about oil’s spiralling geopolitical mess, the diesel crisis, and what she really thinks about rising Hormuz oil flows https://t.co/ANumxzxKe4
Prepare for escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea shipping and coastal oil assets. https://t.co/xpYt4YCNXh
沙特支持的也门武装发起全面军事行动，试图夺回胡塞武装控制的所有地区。此前，伊朗支持的胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间已持续数周升级。
发文者与《华尔街日报》记者 Georgi Kantchev 讨论本周霍尔木兹袭击增加，此前石油外运流量显著恢复。石油流量出现放缓或回落的初步迹象，但要确认是否形成持续转折仍需时间。
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Axios's @mikeallen he thinks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is "doing well." "If I look at my call sheet every day, I probably have a hundred calls to make. I think if you're Fed chair, you probably have three. So part of my job is to make sure https://t.co/JK3V5uxD
Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad has resigned, according to state media, which didn't give any reason for his departure. Paknejad had been oil minister since Aug 2024. Hamid Bovard named acting minister.
Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we get the Fed minutes and lots of interesting data. For more details, please see one of the links below for my weekly note
My colleague @alexlongley1 speaks to the captain of an oil tanker doing Strait of Hormuz crossings. “Tankers are always at risk all the time,” the captain said. “It’s a very dangerous vessel.” https://t.co/2ARuar25xu
Another great MacroTalk this week with @AahanPrometheus covering: - Signs of cracks in the commodity bull market. - How far the dissaving-driven expansion / earnings boom can really run. - And... the perfect pre-pod / meeting energy shot. https://t.co/fI9uhSh8E2
The most interesting cut of the labor market data from yesterday. https://t.co/v0ydXQk959 引用 @EPBResearch：A new cycle high for cyclical payrolls. https://t.co/9OcEXfq4wU
Fire, smoke seen near Aramco facility in Riyadh, witness says - https://t.co/m7MelUJZzH
Reuters: “A large plume of smoke and fire was seen rising in the vicinity of an Aramco facility in Riyadh on Saturday” https://t.co/tYnedQpCTm
近期石油流量确为战争期间最高，但作者称这一流量代价极高，当前结构不可持续。早期数据已显露波动迹象，或至少显示近期增幅放缓。引用内容称，赫格塞思表示，由于飞行员控制空域，目前通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油量超过冲突开始前。
Scenario (absolutely no relation to today) >oil experiences largest-ever supply shock >record pace of stock/emergency buffer drawdown >stocks fall from really high to precarious levels >supply fights to recover >mounting risk to 15 MMbpd of recovered supply Where are prices?
Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information." https://t.co/gWNMqc6992
Axios' @mikeallen asks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he regrets saying "I am the house now." Bessent: "No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays percentages." https://t.co/W7JkS3WqAV
图表显示，政府利息支出已升至 GDP 的 3.2%，为 60 多年来高位；非金融企业利息支出降至 GDP 的 0.7%，为 60 多年来低位。
In September, % of unemployed for more than 27 weeks came in at 27.1%, up from 27.0% prior https://t.co/9exCEHKR80
美国非农就业人数两个月净修正减少6万个岗位。
9月劳动力参与率升至61.8%；男性参与率持平于67.2%，女性参与率小幅升至56.7%。
In September, job leavers as % of unemployed dropped to 10.5% vs. 13.1% in prior month https://t.co/PSTKbTD5IQ
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%. https://t.co/x6ByfSnZ9P
9月核心劳动年龄人口劳动参与率升至83.7%，前值为83.4%。